竞争环境下新能源汽车嵌入技术服务的定价策略

构建上游技术服务商和下游新能源制造商合作创新的两级供应链,考虑两个制造商的竞争关系和权力结构,研究不同竞争模式对产品定价、产品利润的影响,为技术服务商和新能源汽车制造商的决策提供参考。结果显示,技术服务商在同等条件下会提供技术给具有竞争关系的制造商以优化利润;制造商之间的权力结构会影响技术服务商的利润,并且在“权力对等”竞争模式(FLC)下的利润最大。从制造商角度,竞争强度和技术产出贡献度均会影响产品价格。在技术产出贡献度较小的情形下,垄断模式(M)下的产品定价最高,“制造商1领导”竞争模式(SLC)和“制造商2领导”竞争模式(TLC)下的定价较高,FLC模式下的定价最低;反之亦然。算例分析进一步指出,当技术产出贡献度较小时,M模式下的产品利润大于竞争模式(C)下的产品利润;反之亦然。此外,制造商之间的权力结构会影响C模式下的产品利润,因此,制造商在C模式的占优策略是通过FLC模式实施定价或在SLC和TLC模式下取得定价领导权。     

GMCL： a robust global localization method for mobile robot

A large sample size is required for Monte Carlo localization （MCL） in multi-robot dynamic environ- ment, because of the ＂kidnapped robot＂ phenomenon, which will locate most of the samples in the regions with small value of desired posterior density. For this problem the crossover and mutation operators in evolutionary computation are introduced into MCL to make samples move towards the regions where the desired posterior density is large, so that the sample set can represent the density better. The proposed method is termed genetic Monte Carlo localization （GMCL）. Application in robot soccer system shows that GMCL can considerably reduce the required number of samples, and is more precise and robust in dynamic environment.     

德士古渣油气化系统数学模拟

对德士古渣油气化系统进行了过程分析,建立了单元设备物料和热量衡算的数学模型,提出了计算气化炉微量组分的方法。运用序贯模块法对该系统进行了稳态模拟计算,结果同设计值和工厂值吻合较好。     

Forecasting the duration of short‐term deflation episodes

The paper proposes a simulation‐based approach to multistep probabilistic forecasting, applied for predicting the probability and duration of negative inflation. The essence of this approach is in counting runs simulated from a multivariate distribution representing the probabilistic forecasts, which enters the negative inflation regime. The marginal distributions of forecasts are estimated using the series of past forecast errors, and the joint distribution is obtained by a multivariate copula approach. This technique is applied for estimating the probability of negative inflation in China and its expected duration, with the marginal distributions computed by fitting weighted skew‐normal and two‐piece normal distributions to autoregressive moving average ex post forecast errors and using the multivariate Student t copula.     

一种基于Markov随机场模型的核磁共振图像分割方法

为了提高核磁共振(MR)图像分割的效果,提出了一种基于Markov随机场模型的分割方法。该方法利用Markov随机场描述图像的先验分布,结合MAP准则获得分割优化函数,通过ICM局部迭代使分割优化函数收敛。迭代过程中引入了后验概率矩阵的平滑;提高了分割的精度和速度。实测数据的实验结果证明了所提方法的有效性。     

油泥与煤混合滤饼燃烧过程的数值模拟与分析

为解决辽河油田油泥所带来的环保、污泥排放及治理问题,利用Fluent软件平台着重对油泥和煤制成的混合滤饼在循环流化床炉内燃烧过程的温度场和速度场进行计算模拟并分析。结果表明,混合滤饼在炉内燃烧情况良好,实现了油泥彻底的无害化和燃料化,而且结合CFB锅炉技术滤饼燃烧效率更高,为油田的油泥处理处置提供全新的途径。     

液压支架用电磁先导阀的可视化模拟分析

本文通过建立高水基电磁先导阀的几何模型,利用计算流体动力学（CFD）仿真软件FLUENT的动网格技术,实现对先导阀精细结构的可视化模拟.通过比较分析稳态与动态工况下,不同开口量值时,阀内流体的流动状态,得出影响阀的性能因素,从而为阅的优化设计提供一定的理论依据.     

Price–Dividend Ratios and Stock Price Predictability

A long‐standing puzzle to financial economists is the difficulty of outperforming the benchmark random walk model in out‐of‐sample contests. Using data from the USA over the period of 1872–2007, this paper re‐examines the out‐of‐sample predictability of real stock prices based on price–dividend (PD) ratios. The current research focuses on the significance of the time‐varying mean and nonlinear dynamics of PD ratios in the empirical analysis. Empirical results support the proposed nonlinear model of the PD ratio and the stationarity of the trend‐adjusted PD ratio. Furthermore, this paper rejects the non‐predictability hypothesis of stock prices statistically based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample tests and economically based on the criteria of expected real return per unit of risk. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SOFA技术对减轻锅炉水冷壁结渣的可行性分析及数值模拟

研究了水冷壁结渣的两个主要原因即还原性气氛和风粉气流,并提出了解决措施:适当的减弱还原性气氛,防止灰熔点降低.在深刻探讨水冷壁结渣成因的基础上,分析了采用SOFA技术解决这一问题的可行性,并利用CFD数值模拟得出了氧量、温度和氮氧化物生成的特点,模拟的结果为减轻水冷壁结渣和工程应用提供了一定的指导意义.     

两硬薄煤层综采工作面围岩运动规律与矿压显现规律研究

针对姜家湾煤矿8213薄煤层综采工作面的地质条件,并结合8213薄煤层工作面现场连续观测矿压数据,应用相似材料模拟和现场实测两种方法对工作面矿压显现规律及围岩运动规律进行研究.研究表明,姜家湾矿8213工作面老顶初次来压范围是40～41 m,老顶周期来压是12～22 m,来压期间矿压显现强度平均在20 MPa左右,顶板运动范围为工作面上方6～23 m.这说明薄煤层工作面顶板的运动范围较小,工作面来压强度较低.