Reflection-in-Action: Modeling a specific organization through the Viable Systems Model

The purpose of this project is to explore a way for systems practitioners to learn the skills necessary to employ a particular systems model in practice. Reflection-in-Action is one way to embark on a double-loop learning cycle and, thus, develop the tacit skills and inarticulate knowledge needed to employ a particular systems model. Through Reflection-in-Action, a Viable Systems Model (VSM) of the San Francisco Zoo was constructed. This project involved three phases of research; for each, a VSM using the data available was constructed. During each phase, the questioning of current assumptions and operating norms led to changes in the direction of the research. This led to the construction of significantly different VSMs for each phase.     

Modelling non-normal first-order autoregressive time series

We shall first review some non-normal stationary first-order autoregressive models. The models are constructed with a given marginal distribution (logistic, hyperbolic secant, exponential, Laplace, or gamma) and the requirement that the bivariate joint distribution of the generated process must be sufficiently simple so that the parameter estimation and forecasting problems of the models can be addressed. A model-building approach that consists of model identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting is then discussed for this class of models.     

一些三种群群落模型的生态稳定性

用生物群落生态稳定性理论讨论了五个三种群Lotka-Volterra群落模型的生态稳定性,分别给出了判定定理。     

An Efficient Constrained Model Predictive Control Algorithm Based on Approximate Computation

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Forecast comparisons of four models of U.S. interest rates

In this paper we compare the out of sample forecasts from four alternative interest rate models based on expanding information sets. The random walk model is the most restrictive. The univariate time series model allows for a richer dynamic pattern and more conditioning information on own rates. The multivariate time series model permits a flexible dynamic pattern with own- and cross-series information. Finally, the forecasts from the MPS econometric model depend on the full model structure and information set. In theory, more information is preferred to less. In practice, complicated misspecified models can perform much worse than simple (also probably misspecified) models. For forecasts evaluated over the volatile 1970s the multivariate time series model forecasts are considerably better than those from simpler models which use less conditioning information, as well as forecasts from the MPS model which uses substantially more conditioning information but also imposes ‘structural’ economic restrictions.     

天线反射面风压分布的测量

测量天线反射面风压是困难的问题,本文根据天线反射面的结构特点,设计了几何相似和动力相似的各类天线风压测量模型,提出了测量方法,讨论了提高测量精度的措施。     

一种基于改进TF-IDF函数的文本分类方法

为了解决传统TF-IDF函数由于忽略特征项之间的联系带来的诸多问题,对TF-IDF函数在文本分类中的应用进行了研究.结合信息论相关知识,找出了类间分布度和类内分布度表征特征项之间的潜在关系,进而提出改进的TF-IDF函数用于文本分类.实验表明,改进后的TF-IDF函数是有效可行的,而且较好的弥补了传统方法所丢失的特征项之间的关联信息,提高了文本分类的准确率.     

语言理解中P600效应的新解读——监控理论及双路线模型的扩展

语义违例句诱发了P600效应对P600是句法加工的标志的说法提出了质疑.监控理论从执行控制参与语言理解的角度阐释了P600,并提出了双路线模型.而后的研究发现在各个语言水平上都存在对错误加工的监控,双路线模型得到扩展,提出P600反映了预期和非预期表征之间出现冲突时引发的监控反应.在对监控理论和模型进行分析和评价的基础上,认为它为P600效应实质的研究提供了新视角,但是还有待完善和深入研究.     

中国区域创新集群发展效率研究

运用空间计量原理将中国大陆划分为十大区域技术创新集群,并通过三阶段DEA法剔除环境因素以及随机误差的影响,对2005-2009年十大区域技术创新集群技术发展效率进行研究。研究结果表明:中国形成了较为明显的区域技术创新空间集群,并且有继续强化的趋势;近几年大陆十大技术创新集群整体综合技术发展效率表现良好,高端集群与中低端集群之间技术差距也在逐年降低;虽然我国整体纯技术创新效率正逐年提升,但受到技术资源配置不均衡影响,我国中低端集群技术创新发展效率并未达到理想水平。     

防沙治沙生态补偿模式创新研究

防沙治沙是西部地区生态建设的核心内容,创新治沙补偿模式并以此加大林业资金投入是根本保障。近年来,治沙投入有所增加、财政补偿逐步提高、治沙绩效相对显著,但现有补偿模式仍然存在资金投入严重不均、补偿标准亟待完善、来源无法保证和落实力度不够等问题。因此,创新治沙补偿模式,必须对治沙补偿战略重新定位、推进补偿方式创新、改进财政补偿标准、加大农村地区投入和改革治沙协调机制。