战术导弹仿真技术的发展与展望

本文论述了仿真技术在战术导弹研制中的重要地位和作用。概述了国外仿真技术在战术导弹上的应用情况以及有关的仿真设备。文中结合我国的实际,提出了当前战术导弹仿真技术面临的几个问题,并就它们的解决途径提出了一些看法和建议。     

贮存-使用模型可靠性置信下限的估计

本文讨论了贮存寿命和使用寿命均为指数分布时,贮存-使用模型的可靠性置信限的估计问题。文章首先给出了一个"等效时间"公式,将贮存时间转化为等效的使用时间,然后利用定总试验时间的可靠性置信下限求法对其置信下限进行计算。最后举例说明贮存-使用可靠性置信下限的求法。     

垂盆草片的成型工艺研究

为优选垂盆草片的成型工艺,改善其吸湿性,考察了不同辅料对垂盆草片成型性、吸湿性和临界相对湿度的影响,筛选出垂盆草片的最优辅料及处方组成,并测定颗粒的临界相对湿度.实验结果表明,垂盆草片最佳成型工艺为:浸膏粉与淀粉、糊精和微粉硅胶按55.6∶80∶15∶5的比例混匀,以95%乙醇为润湿剂,1%的硬脂酸镁作为润滑剂,湿法制粒压片,所制颗粒临界相对湿度为66%.采用该法所制片剂成型性、崩解性好,硬度适宜,且不易吸湿.     

《算学启蒙》在日本的流传及影响

对《算学启蒙》在日本的流播情况进行了考察,对现存日本的不同时期《算学启蒙》的翻刻本、训点本和注释做了介绍,并对该书在和算学发展中的作用作了探讨.     

纳米铝在炸药中的分散性和成型性

为了研究纳米铝在炸药中的分散性和成型性,利用不同溶剂对纳米铝进行了分散;利用超声波分散法、高速剪切混合法、叶片式搅拌混合、分散加高速分散机混合对黑索金/铝(RDX/Al)体系进行分散;采用熔融混合造粒工艺研究了不同纳米铝粉含量的成型性,采用直接混合造粒工艺研究了不同纳米铝粉含量对RDX/Al体系成型性,结果表明:乙酸乙酯的分散效果最好;超声分散可以提高纳米铝粉的分散均匀性;采用的三种工艺可以达到相同的分散效果;微米铝和纳米铝在三硝基甲苯(TNT)中的成型性基本无变化;在RDX/Al体系的压装炸药中,含纳米铝的炸药成型性较含微米铝的炸药差;含纳米铝炸药的密度随铝粉含量增加呈现非线性变化,而纳米铝和微米铝级配的炸药密度随铝粉含量增加呈现线性增加.     

The futility of decision making research

We have each spent more than 50 years doing research that has had little impact. Even more lamentable is that our field, judgment and decision making (JDM), has on the whole had little impact during that span. We attribute that failure to the use of methodologies that emphasize testing models rather than looking for differences in behavior. The “cognitive revolution” led the field astray, toward the goal of studying model fit rather than comparing observable results. With modeling as the goal, experimentation was stultified. Simple tasks became dominant. Although a poor metaphor for real decision making, the gambling paradigm has lasted forever because the inputs to the decision are known to the researcher and thus easily modeled.     

Multi-model ensembles in climate science: Mathematical structures and expert judgements

Projections of future climate change cannot rely on a single model. It has become common to rely on multiple simulations generated by Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs), especially to quantify the uncertainty about what would constitute an adequate model structure. But, as Parker points out (2018), one of the remaining philosophically interesting questions is: “How can ensemble studies be designed so that they probe uncertainty in desired ways?” This paper offers two interpretations of what General Circulation Models (GCMs) are and how MMEs made of GCMs should be designed. In the first interpretation, models are combinations of modules and parameterisations; an MME is obtained by “plugging and playing” with interchangeable modules and parameterisations. In the second interpretation, models are aggregations of expert judgements that result from a history of epistemic decisions made by scientists about the choice of representations; an MME is a sampling of expert judgements from modelling teams. We argue that, while the two interpretations involve distinct domains from philosophy of science and social epistemology, they both could be used in a complementary manner in order to explore ways of designing better MMEs.     

层板发汗冷却数学模型与控制方程的求解

本文描述了结构层板与冷却剂相互之间存在温差的发汗冷却计算模型,导出了层板发汗冷却控制方程。对定常控制方程的积分求解方法和超临界状态非定常控制方程的数值求解方法进行了探讨,例举了液体火箭发动机推力室壁采用液氧作为冷却剂的计算结果。计算结果表明,基本模型符合实际的物理过程,求解过程直观简捷。由于冷却机理的类似,其数学模型与计算方法也适用于多孔材料等其它形式的热控制装置的发汗冷却研究。     

玻璃窑炉内液流和传热过程的研究方法

介绍了玻璃窑炉内流动和传热过程的研究方法,要介绍了每个研究方法中有代表性的研究成果。     

移动电话收益率与接通率的模型及其应用

通过对移动电话话务量损失原因的分析,建立了一个反映移动电话收益率与移动电话全网忙时接通率之间内在联系的模型,应用这一模型进行了实例分析。分析结果表明：移动电话经济效益的提高与移动电话全网忙时接通率成正比;在不同接通率基础上,每提高１个百分点,企业的收益率提高幅度不同;原有接通率较低的,收益率提高较大。