邮政通信网局部预测模型的研究和实现

为建立模型对网络实体流量流向进行预测,通过对实际情况的分析,得出新的局部预测模型方案,并为模型设定多级子模型,当模型需要变换时,只需要加入新的影响因素,不需要改变模型框架,这样使得模型更加适合邮政通信网仿真优化的需要。对于其它类似的仿真系统模型建立也有一定的启发作用。     

二十八天水泥抗压强度动态模型及参数对预测的影响

本文用时间序列分析方法分析水泥生产过程,笔者假设水泥生产过程为一个平稳的随机过程,它的二十八天抗压强度为具有控制项的自回归模型。用30组数据建立了28天水泥抗压强度动态模型,并做了跟踪,分析了七天抗压强度、细度、SO_3等与二十八天抗压强度的关系。最后,把生产中实际值和预测值进行了比较。     

向量值有限平均MDP

讨论了向量值离散时间平均准则下的有限马氏决策模型；在采取确定性平稳策略时所得马氏决策过程为遍历的假设下，证明了存在一个至多在Ｋ－１个状态是随机的平稳最优策略，并给出了其线性规划算法。同时证明了存在强最优策略的充要条件是其存在强确定性平稳最优策略。     

产生图的全部哈密顿回路

本文对完全图和非完全图分别给出了一个产生图中全部Hamilton回路的算法。与已有算法比较,本文提出的算法具有速度快、内存小的优点。该算法用于判别一个图是否Hamilton图效果良好。     

密度演化方法在求解股市上扬天数中的应用

将股市上扬的天数转化为随机游程的长度，利用密度演化方法求得了股市上扬天数的分布以及均值和方差该文首次将密度演化方法用来研究股市的一般宏观规律，其结论可指导投资决策．     

随机环境中的线性控制分枝链

介绍了随机环境中线性控制分枝链的概念，在文献[5]的基础上，进一步讨论了母函数之间的关系；得到了随机环境中的线性控制分枝链的期望公式，介绍了方差函数的求法．     

Ruin Probability with Variable Premium Rate and Disturbed by Diffusion in a Markovian Environment

We consider a risk model with a premium rate which varies with the level of free reserves. In this model, the occurrence of claims is described by a Cox process with Markov intensity process, and the influence of stochastic factors is considered by adding a diffusion process. The integro-differential equation for the ruin probability is derived by a infinitesimal method.     

浅谈师范生现代教学技能的培养

高质量的教师队伍是高质量教育的一个基本条件,师范生"现代教育技术素质"是教师素质的一个重要方面。文章在分析师范生教学技能内容的基础上,探讨了高等师范院校学生教学技能培养的有效途径,并提出了改进方向。     

A latent class probit model for analyzing pick any/N data

A latent class probit model is developed in which it is assumed that the binary data of a particular subject follow a finite mixture of multivariate Bermoulli distributions. An EM algorithm for fitting the model is described and a Monte Carlo procedure for testing the number of latent classes that is required for adequately describing the data is discussed. In the final section, an application of the latent class probit model to some intended purchase data for residential telecommunication devices is reported. Geert De Soete is supported as “Bevoegdverklaard Navorser” of the Belgian “Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.”     

AVAILABILITY ANALYSIS OF THE QUEUEING SYSTEM GI/PH/I WITH SERVER BREAKDOWNS

In the existing literature of Repairable Queueing Systems (RQS), i.e., queueing systems with server breakdowns, it is almost all assumed that interarrival times of successive customers are independent, identically exponentially distributed. In this paper, we deal with more generic system GI/PH/1 with server's exponential uptime and phase-type repair time. With matrix analysis theory, we establish the equilibrium condition and the characteristics of the system, derive the transient and stationary availability behavior of the system.