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31.
C3I系统模型与仿真研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3
C3I系统是一类复杂大系统,借助模型和仿真手段对其进行研究是唯一的途径。作者将C3I系统模型分为本征模型和派生模型两个层次,在此基础上对C3I系统模型进行了分类,详细介绍了面向实现、面向过程和面向对象的C3I系统本征模型,以及现有的各种仿真模型和仿真方法。 相似文献
32.
EXISTENCE AND UNIQUENESS AND STABILITY OF SOLUTIONS FOR STOCHASTIC IMPULSIVE SYSTEMS 总被引:5,自引:1,他引:5
Bin LIU Xinzhi LIU Xiaoxin LIAO 《系统科学与复杂性》2007,20(1):149-158
This paper studies the existence, uniqueness, and stability of solutions for stochastic impulsive systems. By employing Lyapunov-like functions, some sufficient conditions of the global existence, uniqueness, and stability of solutions for stochastic impulsive systems are established. Furthermore, the results are specialized to the case of linear stochastic impulsive systems. Finally, some examples are given to illustrate the applications of our theory. 相似文献
33.
以《颜氏家训》为基础,论述颜之推的和谐观。从家族、个人、社会、文化等角度,结合颜之推个人生活经历,分析其和谐观中的合理与不合理之处,以期对现实有所启发。 相似文献
34.
作为教育教学中心之一的班主任工作,如何在新形势下做好学生管理工作,促进学生全面健康的成长,是学生管理工作者必须思考的问题。 相似文献
35.
书库藏书迁移的运作主要在于精心准备和周密筹划。详细介绍了华北电力大学图书馆利用汇文文献信息服务系统的强大分析功能并结合Excel软件的使用技巧,实现大规模馆藏迁移精准排架工作的经验。 相似文献
36.
指出了Diestel关于图论的研究生教材中Thomas&Wollan定理的一个弱形式证明中存在的一个错误(第76页式(3)),并提供了一种改正方式。 相似文献
37.
基于素质教育的中学地理教学改革与方法创新 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
结合中学地理教学目标、教材特点和当代中学生学习环境的变化,提出了基于素质教育的中学地理教师应具备的素质和技能:教师是复合型研究性人才;具有终身学习理念;具有科学方法论做指导;具有跨学科知识结构体系.根据目前中学地理教学的现状和问题,提出了基于素质教育的中学地理教学改革和方法创新的途径:自觉运用哲学理论和逻辑方法;软化学... 相似文献
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39.
Philip Hans Franses 《Journal of forecasting》2020,39(6):927-933
Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law. 相似文献
40.
Mariusz Doszy 《Journal of forecasting》2019,38(5):459-469
Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well). 相似文献