Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

Taming theory with thought experiments: Understanding and scientific progress

I claim that one way thought experiments contribute to scientific progress is by increasing scientific understanding. Understanding does not have a currently accepted characterization in the philosophical literature, but I argue that we already have ways to test for it. For instance, current pedagogical practice often requires that students demonstrate being in either or both of the following two states: 1) Having grasped the meaning of some relevant theory, concept, law or model, 2) Being able to apply that theory, concept, law or model fruitfully to new instances. Three thought experiments are presented which have been important historically in helping us pass these tests, and two others that cause us to fail. Then I use this operationalization of understanding to clarify the relationships between scientific thought experiments, the understanding they produce, and the progress they enable. I conclude that while no specific instance of understanding (thus conceived) is necessary for scientific progress, understanding in general is.     

阿罗不可能性定理和社会选择的无矛盾性问题

2017年2月21日,国际著名数理经济学家、1972年度诺贝尔(Nobel)经济学奖获得者阿罗(K.J.Arrow)于美国辞世。谨作此文,以纪念他在社会选择理论,特别是其中将有关数学应用于研究经济学领域发现的"阿罗不可能性定理"作出的重大贡献。     

基于磁性微泡对比剂的超声和磁共振影像融合算法

文中提出了一种新的基于磁性微泡对比剂的超声影像和磁共振影像之间的融合算法．首先利用磁性微泡对比剂对体模进行超声和磁共振显影,并对显影进行边缘分割．运用非采样contourlet变换（nonsubsampled contourlet transform．NSCT）对源图像进行分解,然后对低频子带系数采用自适应动态加权非负矩阵分解（dynamic weighted non-negative matrix factorization．DWNMF）结合分割图像进行融合．然后对各带通方向子带系数采用空间频率激励的脉冲耦合神经网络进行融合,最后利用NSCT逆变换得到融合图像．研究结果表明,利用磁性微泡对比剂并结合上述算法对超声影像和磁共振影像进行融合,可以获得预期的融合效果．     

基于SHPB试验的高速铁路CRTSⅡ型CA砂浆动态性能

采用分离式霍普金森压杆(Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar,SHPB)试验研究了高速铁路CRTS II型水泥乳化沥青砂浆(CA砂浆)的动态力学性能,并建立了CRTS II型CA砂浆的动态本构关系模型.结果表明:随着应变率的增大,CRTS II型CA砂浆峰值强度逐渐增加,但增加速率随应变率的增大而减小,当应变率从44.17增加至54.79 s-1和从54.79增加至108.47 s-1时,峰值强度分别增加了初始峰值强度的52.28%和7.5%,弹性模量随应变率的变化规律性较差;应变率越大,破坏时的贯通裂纹越多,碎裂程度越大;CRTS II型CA砂浆的比能量吸收随着应变率的增大而增大.所建立的动态本构模型拟合曲线与试验曲线具有较好的一致性.     

嫦娥三号“玉兔号”巡视器遥操作中的关键技术

2013年12月14日,"嫦娥三号"成功地将月面着陆器和"玉兔号"巡视器送抵月球,这标志着我国已完成了探月工程中"落"月的重要阶段.嫦娥三号任务的一个关键组成部分是由地面遥操作中心控制"玉兔号"巡视器在月面非结构化环境中进行巡视和科学探测,而遥操作技术正是该组成部分成功实施的关键."玉兔号"巡视器遥操作技术主要包括巡视器的导航定位、月面地形重构、行驶路径规划和机械臂探测等关键步骤,这些步骤相互支撑与融合,保证了嫦娥三号任务的顺利实施.本文在对上述4个方面关键技术的发展和应用现状进行总结的基础上,阐述了相关的主要技术途径及其应用特点,分析了各种技术在"玉兔号"月面巡视与科学探测任务实施中的发挥的重要作用,并评述了它们的发展潜力和应用前景,对中国探月工程以及后续火星探测工程中的遥操作具有一定的指导意义.     

基于人眼状态识别的驾驶员疲劳检测方法研究

提出一种基于眼睛状态识别的驾驶员疲劳状态检测的方法。首先通过建立肤色模型分割出人脸区域,再利用搜索连通域的方法实现眼睛区域的定位;然后计算出眼睛区域的垂直积分投影曲线,提取并比较曲线的特征参数,从而识别眼睛的状态;最后以眼睛闭合时间比率为测量标准实现对驾驶员疲劳程度的检测。实验表明,该方法简单、有效、实时性较好,疲劳检测的正确率较高。     

柳永词的用典及其诗化倾向

考察《乐章集》,我们发现其各类题材用典的频率都较高,特别是都市题材的词作用典频率更高。柳永作为第一个专职词人,因其在创作时大量运用典故,使词具有了＂诗化＂、＂雅化＂倾向,使＂词＂逐渐被文人认可而登上＂大雅＂之堂。     

以新安大桥桩基为例谈桥梁桩基的质量控制

钻孔灌注桩钢筋外露是一种较严重的病害,外露的钢筋极易锈蚀腐烂,导致桩基承载力下降,严重影响大桥的运行安全和使用寿命。根据新安大桥实例,分析了露筋产生的原因,提出了预防措施和处理方法。