Urban structure and the risk of influenza A （H1N1） outbreaks in municipal districts

Changsha was one of the most affected areas during the 2009 A （H 1N 1） influenza pandemic in China. Here, we analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics of the 2009 pan- demic across Changsha municipal districts, evaluate the relationship between case incidence and the local urban spatial structure and predict high-risk areas of influenza A （H1NI）. We obtained epidemiological data on all cases of influenza A （H1NI） reported across municipal districts in Changsha dur- ing period May 2009-December 2010 and data on population density and basic geographic characteristics for 239 primary schools, 97 middle schools, 347 universities, 96 mails and markets, 674 business districts and 121 hospitals. Spatial- temporal K functions, proximity models and logistic regres- sion were used to analyze the spatial distribution pattern of influenza A （H1N1） incidence and the association between influenza A （HINI） cases and spatial risk factors and predict the infection risks. We found that the 2009 influenza A （H 1N 1 ） was driven by a transmission wave from the center of the study area to surrounding areas and reported cases increased significantly after September 2009. We also found that the distribution of influenza A （H 1N1） cases was associ- ated with population density and the presence of nearest public places, especially universities （OR = 10.166）. The final pre- dictive risk map based on the multivariate logistic analysis showed high-risk areas concentrated in the center areas of the study area associated with high population density. Our find- ings support the identification of spatial risk factors and high- risk areas to guide the prioritization of preventive and miti- gation efforts against future influenza pandemics.     

一维Logistic映射稳定周期轨道存在的参数区域

讨论一维Ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ映射Ｘｎ＋１＝μ－ｘｎ＾２稳定周期轨道产生和失稳时的参数值，并利用计算机代数系统，计算出了稳定周期１－６轨道存在的参数区域。     

回归诊断及影响分析中的二阶局部方法

考虑影响分析问题，在一阶方法中基于广义影响函数及广义Ｃｏｏｋ统计量的观点，以ＭＡＶ准则为新的投影指标，得到了一个新的投影方向，此方向对提供影响信息有较大参考价值。对于二阶方法。针对多维情形，推广了Ｗｕ和Ｌｕｏ的方法，使其对同时处理多参数情形也有效，所给的实例分析取得了较为满意的效果。     

中国的通货紧缩与潜在的经济增长

通常意义上的通货紧缩有“两个特征 ,一个伴随”,即物价持续下降、货币供应量持续下降的同时伴随着经济衰退 ,从 1 997年下半年以来中国经济已经具备通缩的两个特征 ,但对“一个伴随”学界有不同的认识 ,因为中国经济增长率一直处在较高位次的正数区间内。我们认为对“一个伴随”的认识只能把潜在的增长和实际的增长对应起来分析 ,本文在计量的基础上分析了二者的关系 ,从而支持了这一命题的正确性     

社会工作教学“助人自助”中的“自助”要义——以高校贫困生资助工作为例

现有高校贫困生资助工作主要局限于"助人",贫困生存在一定程度的自卑心理、封闭心理、依赖心理和不满心理,"自助"尚显不够,由"助人"走向"自助"才是高校贫困生资助工作的根本目标。"自助"要义包括四个方面:是接纳而不是同情,是发展而不是生存,是优势而不是问题,是增权而不是去权。     

完善项目管理 提高企业效益

项目管理是一种科学的管理组织形式,在一定程度上能够保证施工企业健康发展。一个工程要想取得良好的经济效益,就必须提高项目管理水平,只有将成本降到最低,才能实现企业的利益最大化。     

Cox模型在电信客户流失原因分析中的研究

建立客户流失Cox模型,结合某高校在校大学生手机卡的生存数据,对影响显著的协变量进行多因素分析,并提出减少客户流失的措施.将Cox模型与Logistic模型进行比较,结果表明Cox模型的效果更好.     

A Procedure for Estimating the Number of Clusters in Logistic Regression Clustering

This paper studies the problem of estimating the number of clusters in the context of logistic regression clustering. The classification likelihood approach is employed to tackle this problem. A model-selection based criterion for selecting the number of logistic curves is proposed and its asymptotic property is also considered. The small sample performance of the proposed criterion is studied by Monto Carlo simulation. In addition, a real data example is presented. The authors would like to thank the editor, Prof. Willem J. Heiser, and the anonymous referees for the valuable comments and suggestions, which have led to the improvement of this paper.     

Logistic模型的参数估计及其实证研究分析

本文首先对Logistic模型的理论基础和性质进行了推导和研究,然后利用极大似然估计法对模型的参数进行了估计,另外对Logistic模型在实证研究中存在的问题进行了分析和评估。     

1912—1937年中国地质科学知识增长的建制化研究

基于1912—1937年即民国肇始至抗战爆发中国地质科学建制化的历程,首次对这一时段中国地质科学的教育科研、学会组织、学术交流等进行了系统的发掘和全面的梳理,认为这一时期地质科学知识的快速增长与地质科学建制化呈正相关关系。