The performance of non‐linear exchange rate models: a forecasting comparison

In recent years there has been a considerable development in modelling non‐linearities and asymmetries in economic and financial variables. The aim of the current paper is to compare the forecasting performance of different models for the returns of three of the most traded exchange rates in terms of the US dollar, namely the French franc (FF/$), the German mark (DM/$) and the Japanese yen (Y/$). The relative performance of non‐linear models of the SETAR, STAR and GARCH types is contrasted with their linear counterparts. The results show that if attention is restricted to mean square forecast errors, the performance of the models, when distinguishable, tends to favour the linear models. The forecast performance of the models is evaluated also conditional on the regime at the forecast origin and on density forecasts. This analysis produces more evidence of forecasting gains from non‐linear models. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

提高石油化工企业原料利用率的技术研究

坚持眼睛向内,挖潜增效,这是当前原油变重、供应量不足,生产资料涨价的客观形势下走出困境、提高企业效益的主要途径之一,本文从拓宽催化回炼油的利用途径,催化和加氢裂化互换循环油加工,优化重油原料的安排,提高轻油头的化肥效益,挤出烷基化原料,开发异丁烷的化工用途及油化结合等方面,分析通过厂际装置间的原料互供、生产优化来挖掘企业内涵,提高经济效益.     

侧析我国的学术环境——对诺贝尔奖困惑的反思

诺贝尔自然科学奖是比较公正的,但政治对科学发展的影响又是现实的。我国之所以未曾问津诺贝尔自然科学奖,在很大程度上是由于政治环境影响了基础研究的学术自由和学术交流。     

也谈“用惠斯通电桥测电阻”实验

本文主要对杨介信、陈国英编写《普通物理实验(二、电磁学部分)》“用惠斯通电桥测电阻”实验中δR_(x0)=(R_4/R_3)δR_2的含意等五个问题,提出自己的不同看法。     

Biosynthesis of 1-aminocyclopropanecarboxylic acid: Steric course of the reaction at the C-4 position

Summary Under the action of the appropriate synthase from ripe tomatoes a 11 mixture of (3S, 4R)-[3,4-²H₂] and (3R, 4S)-[3,4-²H₂]-(2S)-adenosylmethionine is transformed into a 11 mixture of the two meso forms of [²H₂]-1-aminocyclopropanecarboxylic acid, a result which proves the operation of an inversion mechanism and which is consistent with direct nucleophilic displacement of the leaving group in the substrate.     

碳基烧蚀材料高温氧化反应机理的分子动力学研究

本文采用基于紧束缚密度泛函理论的分子动力学,研究高温下碳基烧蚀材料三种模型(无缺陷、原子缺陷以及孔洞缺陷)的氧化反应机制．研究发现高温下的反应产物主要是CO和CO₂.CO的产生过程主要源于环氧基团中C-C键的裂解,而CO₂的形成则较为复杂,主要源于小分子团簇(C₂O₂、C₃O₁、C₄O₁)的裂解．C-C键裂解是石墨氧化反应的主要途径,C-O键形成是CO和CO₂生成速率的控制因素．此外,体系的温度、缺陷以及孔洞对石墨的氧化反应机制有重要的影响．通过分析氧化反应速率,计算得到三种模型氧化反应的活化能分别为7.56、2.4和1.6kcal/mol．缺陷越明显活化能越低,则氧化反应速率较高,无缺陷的模型由于活化能最高,其氧化反应速率最低．     

上海市集成电路及机电一体化产品的比较优势研究

本文用一种“节汇成本比较”的方法,对上海市集成电路及机电一体化产品的比较优势进行调查研究,提出了上海市在这两个产品领域发展重点的建议。     

Sea water intrusion and salt water intrusion in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay

The characteristics, pattern, hydrodynamic and hydrochemical features, and the movement pattern of the salt waterfresh water interface of the sea water intrusion and the salt water intrusion, which occur in the coastal area of Laizhou Bay in Shandong Province, are analysed. The characteristics of the two kinds of intrusion are compared as well. A three-dimensional sea water intrusion model to describe the sea water intrusion with a transitional zone 1.5–6.0 km wide in the phreatic aquifer and a solute transport model describing the behavior of cations exchange in the process of sea water intrusion are established.     

Cu~(2+)与三磺基四苯基啿卟啉配位反应研究

利用吸收光谱法和直流极谱法研究了Cu~(2+)的还原状态、抗坏态、抗坏血酸浓度及溶解氧对Cu~(2+)与三磺基四苯基卟啉配位反应的影响。结果表明Cu~(2+)与三磺基四苯(?)基四苯基卟啉配位反应的可能机制为抗坏血酸首先将高价铜还原为亚铜,亚铜离子与配位剂生成对氧成对氧敏感的不稳定中间体Cu~(Ⅰ)——三磺基四:苯基卟啉配合物,立即又被溶解氧氧化为Cu(Ⅱ)——Ⅱ)——三磺基四苯基卟啉配合物。     

三乙基苄基氯化铵合成反应动力学研究

用电导法分别测定了三乙基苄基氯化铵合成反应在乙醇、正戊醇、１,２－二氯乙烷三种溶剂中的反应进程,此反应在三种介质均为二级反应;求出了不同温度下的反应速度常数、反应活化能、指前因子以及活化熵变;１,２－二氯乙烷是非质子性溶剂,对三乙基苄基氯化铵合成这类双分子亲核反应有利。乙醇溶剂的反应速度随温度升高而明显加快。