Developing the methodology of TSI: From the oblique use of methods to creative design

During the last 13 years, a dialogue has been conducted in the Critical Systems literature on the subject of choice betwen methods. However, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, researchers went in two separate directions. One direction involved an exploration of the “creative design of methods.” This is when the problem situation is understood in terms of a series of systemically interrelated research questions, each of which might need to be addressed using a different method, or part of a method. A synthesis is generated that allows each individual research question to be addressed as part of a whole system of questions. The other research direction involved the development of “Total Systems Intervention” (TSI), a meta-methodology that, amongst other things, encourages the creative exploration of the problem situation prior to the choice of methods. One of the latest innovations in TSI is a theory of the “oblique” use of methods. This is the use of methods for purposes other than those they were originally designed for. However, it is argued here that all the case studies that have been subject to an “oblique” interpretation can be better explained if they are seen as examples of the creative design of methods. We can therefore bring together the two strands of research that have hitherto been pursued separately in the Critical Systems literature. it is suggested that TSI can be enhanced by an understanding of the creative design of methods because the latter allows us to explain the purposive, flexible, and responsive way in which TSI is most successfully used in practice.     

Applications of time-series analysis in accounting: A review

This paper reviews research that makes use of one of the most popular forecasting methods applied in accounting: time-series analysis using the Box-Jenkins methodology. It organizes the research in the area, surveys recent applications of time-series analysis in accounting, and discusses the potential for the methodology in addressing future research issues. The emphasis is on those aspects of the accounting system that possibly cause difficulties in applying time-series methods in accounting.     

论儒家“道之以德”教育方法的现实意义

儒家认为道德教育首先是对教育者的要求，在道德问题面前，教育者必须首先反思自己，而不是只对受教育者的指责。这种在问题面前要求教育者首先有道德“道之以德”的方法是一种真正具有“德性”的教育方法，对于改善当前因方法造成的德育困境具有重要的现实意义。     

Modelling non-normal first-order autoregressive time series

We shall first review some non-normal stationary first-order autoregressive models. The models are constructed with a given marginal distribution (logistic, hyperbolic secant, exponential, Laplace, or gamma) and the requirement that the bivariate joint distribution of the generated process must be sufficiently simple so that the parameter estimation and forecasting problems of the models can be addressed. A model-building approach that consists of model identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting is then discussed for this class of models.     

可变系统结构建模

可变系统结构建模肖人彬，罗云峰，王雪，费奇（武汉华中理工大学，武汉４３００７４）ＳｔｒｕｃｔｕｒａｌＭｏｄｅｌｉｎｇｆｏｒＣｈａｎｇｅａｂｌｅＳｙｓｔｅｍｓＸｉａｏＲｅｎｂｉｎＬｕｏＹｕｎｆｅｎｇＷａｎｇＸｕｅＦｅｉＱｉ（ＨｕａｚｈｏｎｇＵｎｉｖｅｒ...     

The generation of random,binary unordered trees

Several techniques are given for the uniform generation of trees for use in Monte Carlo studies of clustering and tree representations. First, general strategies are reviewed for random selection from a set of combinatorial objects with special emphasis on two that use random mapping operations. Theorems are given on how the number of such objects in the set (e.g., whether the number is prime) affects which strategies can be used. Based on these results, methods are presented for the random generation of six types of binary unordered trees. Three types of labeling and both rooted and unrooted forms are considered. Presentation of each method includes the theory of the method, the generation algorithm, an analysis of its computational complexity and comments on the distribution of trees over which it samples. Formal proofs and detailed algorithms are in appendices.     

系统策划中的旋进原则

系统策划中最具智谋特色的部分是策略，而策略之中最具一般性的方法论则是旋进原则．本文介绍了旋进原则的基本特征，探讨了它的应用，并说明了旋进原则的收敛性问题．     

响应曲面法优化聚丙烯酰胺的反相乳液聚合

通过二次回归正交旋转组合实验设计,以单体质量分数、引发剂质量分数和反应温度为考察因素,用响应曲面法分析了这3个因素对产物聚丙烯酰胺特性粘数的影响.通过采用DPS数据处理软件,建立了聚合工艺的预测模型,预测最佳聚合工艺条件为:ω(单体)=40.0%,ω(引发剂)=0.2%,反应温度41.6℃,预测特性粘数为14.00 dL·g-1,验证实验所得的特性粘数为12.25 dL·g-1.两者结果相近,说明响应曲面法优化得到的聚丙烯酰胺反相乳液聚合模型是适用可行的.     

高效Ni 2+ 吸附菌株分离鉴定及特性研究

采用浓度梯度筛选的方法,从活性污泥中筛选到一株能耐受并吸附Ni 2+的菌株,命名为Ni-1.采用单因素法对菌株Ni-1的最适培养条件进行了考察,确定培养条件为t=30℃,pH=7.0,1.0%的NaCl.考察了菌株Ni-1对Cu2+和Ni 2+的吸附性能,并用表面响应法优化了吸附条件.菌株Ni-1吸附Cu2+的最优条件为Cu2+100mg/L、投加菌量(湿重)0.85g、溶液pH=6.0,在此条件下对Cu2+的最大吸附率为87.13%.菌株Ni-1吸附Ni 2+的最优条件为Ni 2+50mg/L、投加菌量(湿重)0.85g、溶液pH=6.0,在此条件下对Ni 2+的最大吸附率为84.32%.实验结果表明该细菌对较低浓度的Cu2+和Ni 2+有较好的吸附性能.