基于广义出行成本的出行方案优化

为了使出行成本更加符合出行者的认知规律,运用结构方程建模方法模拟出行成本,个体特征及出行决策之间的影响关系.引入敏感系数调整服务属性在出行成本中的贡献率,利用出行意愿调查数据对敏感系数进行标定.考虑出行者对抵达时刻的选择偏好,假设行程时间服从正态分布条件下,对最佳出发时刻及期望出行成本进行寻优求解,结果表明它取决于期望到达时刻,行程时间的期望值及方差,出行者对早到损失及晚到延误损失时间成本的相对大小.研究成果可为制定个性化及最优化出行决策方案提供依据.     

通用航空FBO发展的思考

通过阐述FBO的相关概念和运营模式,以及分析全球特别是美国FBO的发展与经验借鉴,对我国FBO的发展提供了理论依据。分析表明,目前我国FBO的发展尚处在起步阶段,运营管理和服务水平与通航发达国家有较大差距。要发展FBO,除了借鉴通航发达国家FBO成功经验外,应充分结合我国实际,创新投资建设模式和经营管理方式。     

基于统计数据模型的优秀教练评判的影响因素分析

利用模糊综合评价的方法,根据美国大学教练统计数据的特征分析,从教练的执教胜率,执教年数和获得荣誉等因素来综合评价教练的排名,并运用灵敏度分析的方法分析了各项指标对评判结果的影响因素.     

泉州海洋经济空间结构评价指标体系及模型研究

立足泉州海洋经济的发展,根据海洋经济产业空间结构的内涵及泉州市的具体经济社会情况,在GIS环境中通过属性运算生成35个综合指标构成泉州市海洋经济空间格局的评价指标集.在确定各指标权重分配的基础上,构建产业空间结构模糊评价分析模型.     

自复位学校建筑抗震韧性区域评估用数字孪生模型

在区域层面上对具有自复位模块结构的学校建筑进行抗震损伤和恢复力评估研究，建立了一个基于Python语言的从结构非线性分析到损伤程度可视化演示用的数字孪生模型。Python语言也是目前通用于机器学习模型训练的编程语言，方便在该数字孪生模型中引入人工智能模型来代替结构仿真计算，通过使用实时监测地震动和结构响应数据结合人工智能模型进行区域灾害响应和功能恢复快速评估。结构损伤和恢复力分析结果（如不同地震下修复成本、修复时间、不可修复的概率等指标）通过生成shapefile在地理信息系统（GIS）软件中进行三维可视化，从而对采用自复位模块结构的学校建筑结构群在区域范围上进行抗震韧性定量评估。该模型的计算模块包括区域建筑结构清单生成、简化数值模型建立、地震响应非线性分析、结构响应参数生成、建筑结构易损部件定义、地震损失概率模型评估以及区域灾害损失的结果输出。这里的基于概率模型的学校建筑结构地震损失评估采用了FEMA P-58方法，并使用了Pelicun软件包进行计算。以旧金山湾区近2 000栋学校建筑作为案例，对假定使用偏心支撑框架自复位结构作为抗震结构体系的学校建筑群进行了抗震韧性评估，研究了通...     

Privacy Quantification Model Based on the Bayes Conditional Risk in Location-Based Services

The widespread use of Location-Based Services(LBSs),which allows untrusted service providers to collect large quantities of information regarding users’locations,has raised serious privacy concerns.In response to these issues,a variety of LBS Privacy Protection Mechanisms(LPPMs)have been recently proposed.However,evaluating these LPPMs remains problematic because of the absence of a generic adversarial model for most existing privacy metrics.In particular,the relationships between these metrics have not been examined in depth under a common adversarial model,leading to a possible selection of the inappropriate metric,which runs the risk of wrongly evaluating LPPMs.In this paper,we address these issues by proposing a privacy quantification model,which is based on Bayes conditional privacy,to specify a general adversarial model.This model employs a general definition of conditional privacy regarding the adversary’s estimation error to compare the different LBS privacy metrics.Moreover,we present a theoretical analysis for specifying how to connect our metric with other popular LBS privacy metrics.We show that our privacy quantification model permits interpretation and comparison of various popular LBS privacy metrics under a common perspective.Our results contribute to a better understanding of how privacy properties can be measured,as well as to the better selection of the most appropriate metric for any given LBS application.     

基于贝叶斯方法的Meta-分析

本文基于贝叶斯Meta-分析给出了Jeffreys无信息先验B(1/2,1/2)时的链接分布,并将其进行推广,给出了先验分布为B(α,β)时的链接分布。     

航班运行风险网络的传播与控制改进

为探究航班运行风险的产生、传播与控制过程, 首先统计华北区域航班运行数据共计76个风险节点。然后，采用偏秩相关系数构建风险网络, 再使用社团模块探测算法与三角最大滤波法验证网络适用性。并且, 提出一种适用于航班运行风险分析的SEIR(susceptible-infected-exposed-recovered)模型。根据动力学传播结果, 聚类定位网络传播中关键节点。最后, 采用前置预防与战术处置两类控制方案。计算结果表明，仅控制5个节点后, 感染峰值可降低18.44%, 峰值时间推后两个周期, 起降等重要操纵节点被感染次数平均下降11.74%。该方案在感染峰值、感染周期、重要节点感染3个方面的抑制效果均占优。以上结果证实, 所提方案可有效用于航班运行风险问题分析。     

Mechanical behavior of a near α titanium alloy under dynamic compression: Characterization and modeling

Dynamic compression tests under strain rates from 870 s^?1 to 2100 s^?1 were conducted for a near α Ti–8Al–1Mo–1V titanium alloy with equiaxed microstructure. Compression behavior, adiabatic shearing and band microstructure were investigated via characterization and calculation. The results demonstrate that all dynamic constitutive curves exhibited obvious stress fluctuation phenomenon with double increase-decrease changing stages at the primary stage of compression. The dislocation multiplication theory can be used to explain this phenomenon. After the stress fluctuation period, work hardening coexisted with the thermal softening, resulting in the slow hardening tendency in constitutive curves. J-C model was utilized to quantify the dynamic constitutive curves. The deviations between the predicted and experimental curves under high strain rates may be attributed to the over-consideration of thermal softening effect in J-C model. Adiabatic shearing band (ASB) began to form under the strain rate of 2100 s^?1. A total shearing strain of 8.1 within ASB achieved in 8.9 μs, corresponding to a local strain rate of about 9.1 × 10⁵ s^?1 and is over 430 times of the macro strain rate. Post annealing was conducted on ASB before EBSD characterization. Due to the static recrystallization during annealing, the α phase within ASB generally presented as ultra-fine grains less than 1 μm in diameter.     

省级公共医疗卫生供给绩效评估实证研究——基于全面绩效管理的视角

为了研究安徽省公共医疗卫生供给绩效及其影响因素,从公共服务供给压力、状态和响应3个维度筛选了15个相关指标,构建了评估指标体系,利用最新数据和熵值-Tobit模型对安徽省公共医疗卫生供给绩效及其影响因素进行综合评估,认为样本考察期内安徽省公共医疗卫生供给绩效呈现"快速-平稳-快速-平稳"的动态波动趋势,且供给压力依然较大,供给状态不容乐观,但供给响应指数提升明显; Tobit回归显示,安徽省财政医疗支出占比呈现规模报酬递减效应,人口密度与公共医疗卫生供给绩效呈现负相关关系,而人均地区生产总值、城镇化水平和财政自给率与公共医疗卫生供给绩效呈现正相关关系,但财政自给率的影响不显著,据此,提出了促进省级公共医疗卫生供给绩效提升的相关对策建议。