主权风险溢出网络动态特征研究:以“一带一路”国家为例

随着金融市场全球化的逐步深入以及世界各国政治联系的越发紧密,主权风险跨国传染现象得到了现实的印证.在"一带一路"倡议强化本区域国家间政治金融联系的背景下,从主权风险网络化和区域国家集团化视角出发,借鉴基于方差分解的溢出指数方法,考察了"一带一路"沿线国家主权风险溢出网络的节点特征和结构特征,并探究了沿线国家整体以及不同区域国家集团主权风险溢出效应的动态性特征.研究发现:"一带一路"沿线25国主权风险总溢出效应较高,且中东欧区域国家集团在沿线国家主权风险溢出网络中处于主导地位.另外,沿线国家间的整体主权风险溢出效应随时间表现出明显的动态性特征和阶段性特征,中国与东盟集团之间的主权风险溢出效应在任何阶段总是最强的,而中东欧地区是最能代表沿线国家整体主权风险溢出效应变化的区域国家集团.这些发现对于宏观政策制定者、主权债及相关衍生品市场的投资者理解沿线区域主权风险溢出网络的本质特征和内在结构具有重要的指导意义.     

区域协同创新效率溢出效应研究——以珠三角九市为例

溢出是创新系统形成和演进的内生动力,区域协同创新可以使高能又稀缺的创新要素更好更快地推动区域科技创新和区域经济发展。基于区域协同创新理论研究了区域协同创新效率溢出效应的正负外部性及相关制度设计;进而分别以新产品的产值、销售收入和出口值作为产出指标,采用随机前沿分析方法研究了珠三角九市的创新效率和溢出效应;最后提出了有针对性的政策建议。     

Knowledge transfer across scientific disciplines

Thomas Kuhn suggested that symbolic generalizations are applied to concrete systems by a process involving exemplars and analogical reasoning. Using the related concepts of theoretical and formal templates, I argue that the process of applying templates can in some cases be made explicit and that we do not need to rely on similarity relations and tacit knowledge. In so doing I show how some formal models can be transferred from one scientific field to another. Examples include scale-free networks, the Lotka-Volterra model from biology, and the Goodwin model in economics. I also argue that this explicit approach has advantages over the more psychologically oriented approach of Kuhn and explain the sense in which templates do and do not produce unification.     

Transfer and templates in scientific modelling

The notion of template has been advocated by Paul Humphreys and others as an illuminating unit of analysis in the philosophy of scientific modelling. Templates are supposed to have the dual functions of representing target systems and of facilitating quantitative manipulation. A resulting worry is that wide-ranging cross-disciplinary use of templates might compromise their representational function and reduce them to mere formalisms. In this paper, we argue that templates are valuable units of analysis in reconstructing cross-disciplinary modelling. Central to our discussion are the ways in which Lotka-Volterra models are used to analyse processes of technology diffusion. We illuminate both the similarities and differences between contributions to this case of cross-disciplinary modelling by reconstructing them as transfer of a template, without reducing the template to a mere formalism or a computational model. This requires differentiating the interpretation of templates from that of the models based on them. This differentiation allows us to claim that the LV models of technology diffusion that we review are the result of template transfer - conformist in some contributions, creative in others.     

Micro-mechanism and Dynamic Simulation of Spatial Agglomeration and Knowledge Spillover北大核心CSCD

According to the study of “new” new economic geography, there are three “black boxes” in terms of the setting of firm productivity, the mechanism of knowledge spillover between firms, and the sources of the increase in agglomerated areas’ productivity. Based on the ideas and methods of Complexity and Agent-based Computational Economics, we use Genetic Algorithms to encode firms’ knowledge structure and develop an agent-based spatial economic evolution simulation platform to simulate the process of firms’ productivity improvement and spatial agglomeration through knowledge spillover and innovation. Simulation experiments demonstrate that the knowledge spillover leads to dynamic heterogeneity of firms, and the flow of firms between regions is progressive and bidirectional. Then, in the early stage of the spatial agglomeration process, the increase in regional productivity is due to the “pull-up effect” formed by the entry of high-efficiency firms and the combined effect of knowledge spillover, while in the later stage of the agglomeration process, the increase in regional productivity is mainly due to local knowledge spillover and the “pull-down effect” of the entry of low-efficiency firms. © 2023 Editorial Borad of Complex Systems and Complexity Science. All rights reserved.     

认知语境下看跨文化中的不礼貌言语交际——以电影《土婆婆PK洋媳妇》为例

不礼貌是近年来语用学界关注的热点问题,但有关跨文化交际中的不礼貌研究却比较少见.传统观点认为跨文化交际中的不礼貌是由于语用缺失造成的,忽视了认知语境这一重要的交际情境因素.在跨文化交际中,交际主体在认知语境上存在差异,主要表现在知识草案、心理图式、社会心理表征三个方面.电影《土婆婆PK洋媳妇》互动会话中的不礼貌言语反映出交际主体在认知语境上存在趋异性,由此引发了交际中的不礼貌.     

从印度首都的周边特区凸岛战略到京冀经济地理转型的若干思考

印度首都经济圈通过两大空间战略——"周边地铁一体化"、"地铁中心外移"战略,以及两大特区战略——"周边特区协同化""、周边特区凸岛"战略,成为实施印度"国家知识经济战略"的核心区。上述四大战略在美国、日本和韩国也取得了很大的发展成就。基于对国外经验的研究,本文根据耗散结构理论和"多中心谐振"的城市安全观,深入分析了由城市底层业务员驱动的知识经济,需要一个廉价的城市公共交通网络,更需要一个化减"多中心谐振"的首都经济圈,提出把京冀经济地理从"中心孤岛"向"周边特区凸岛"转型的设想,如建设京廊地铁,把廊坊打造成首都经济圈的航空、地铁交通中心,以及亚洲知识产权运营中心;建设京保地铁,把保定打造成亚洲知识产权创造中心;将国内最开放的经济特区、自由经济区部署在北京周边,这能改善中国区域经济发展的动力结构,又提升首都的城市安全系数和产业升级空间。     

具有不完全测量数据和无溢出现象的实二次模型修正问题的解

二次模型修正问题来自于振动工程,本文旨在解决具有不完全测量数据和无溢出现象的实二次模型修正问题。利用矩阵分块和矩阵列向量的方法,分别给出了实二次模型修正问题的可解条件和解的参数表达式,并给出了该问题的一个求解算法,最后给出了一个数值实例。数值实例说明所提出的方法的有效性,即利用测量到的部分谱信息修正一个实二次模型,使未被观测到的谱信息保持不变。     

医学图书馆知识信息服务的演变与发展

本文分析了当前网络环境下，医学图书馆由原有的藏书楼模式逐渐向数字化图书馆发展，服务模式也由原来的手工服务模式改变为个性化知识信息服务模式。作者通过分析用户的多元化需求，简单陈述了医学图书馆服务模式的发展趋势。     

竞争环境下面向资金约束供应商的均衡补偿策略

本文针对供应商的资金约束问题,研究了需求不确定条件下,两个竞争的制造商如何通过资金补偿策略改善供应商的资金约束问题.建立了包含两个竞争制造商,一个供应商在内的两阶段动态博弈模型,并给出了制造商的均衡补偿及均衡订货策略,进而分析了制造商的资金机会成本和供应商的资金水平对均衡补偿策略的影响.研究表明:当资金机会成本或供应商的资金水平低于某个临界值时,两个制造商均提供资金补偿;当资金机会成本或供应商的资金水平高于某个临界值时,两个制造商均不提供资金补偿;其余情况下,只有一个制造商提供资金补偿.最后,当供应商不提供批发价折扣时,越多的制造商进行资金补偿,供应商的收益越大.