Estimation procedures for structural time series models

A univariate structural time series model based on the traditional decomposition into trend, seasonal and irregular components is defined. A number of methods of computing maximum likelihood estimators are then considered. These include direct maximization of various time domain likelihood function. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are given and a comparison between the various methods in terms of computational efficiency and accuracy is made. The methods are then extended to models with explanatory variables.     

超细微SiO2表面处理的数学模型

用丙三醇处理超细微SiO_2,可使其表面活性增强;并建立了表面处理的数学模型。     

电渣重熔凝固过程的动态控制

本文建立了电渣重熔凝固过程的动态数学模型,根据该模型对重熔过程中的液态金属熔池深度进行恒值控制,计算出了控制过程中钢锭的局部凝固时间、枝晶前方的温度梯度与枝晶生长速度之比这两个凝固参数。探讨了从凝固参数内在变化的要求出发确定工艺曲线的方法。     

A Group-Oriented （t,n） Threshold Signature Scheme with Traceable Signers

A group-oriented （t, n） threshold signature scheme employs the cryptographic techniques of secret share, allows any subset of t players out of n players to sign message on behalf of the group and disallows the creation of a valid signature if fewer than t players take part in the signature protocol. In this paper, we proposed a new group-oriented （t, n） threshold signature schemes with traceable signers based on Schnorr signature. The proposed scheme is proved traceable, robust and unforgeable against the ＂static＂ adversary with the discrete logarithm assumption in the random oracle model and existence of broadcast channel. The proofs of the strongest security （existential unforgeability against adaptively chosen message attacks under the discrete logarithm assumption） are provided in the random oracle model.     

基于一元线性回归分析法的施工成本预测研究

运用一元线性回归分析法,建立了工程建筑面积和施工成本的线形回归模型,预测了拟建和在建工程的施工成本,为工程投标以及工程施工成本管理提供了依据。     

英国健康教育对我国现行体育（与健康）课程的启示

通过英国与中国基础教育阶段健康教育的比较研究，建议采用英国各课程间的“相关链接”，整合我国各课程资源和各科师资力量，解决我国现阶段各科健康教育内容“分而不统”的现状，弥补我国体育教师健康知识的盲区。     

带液芯控制的异型坯连铸二冷区动态控制模型

本文以马钢三炼钢异形坯连铸机为目标机型 ,在凝固传热数学模型的基础上 ,自行开发了一种带液芯控制的异型坯连铸二冷区动态控制模型。采用切片法进行目标温度的动态跟踪 ,通过计算机仿真验证了模型的可靠性     

Rnoise系统中的道路声屏障设计方法

介绍了一种基于综合数字地面模型以及随机车流声源等效替代和分解技术的户外道路交通噪声分析方法与系统，详细了基于该系统的道路声屏障设计与优化方法，该方法能够近似模拟实地各种环境条件的影响，如建筑物，地形，树木植被以及大气条件等，在一定程度上实现了道路交通噪声和声屏障降效果的可视化设计与评价。     

Testing and Modeling for Energy Dissipation Behavior of Velocity and Displacement Dependent Hydraulic Damper

A passive energy-dissipating device, velocity, and displacement dependent hydraulic damper (VDHD), is developed to reduce the seismic response of structure. This device is comprised of a hydraulic jack, check valve, relief valve, and throttle valve. The numerical analysis model for SAP2000 nonlinear analysis program is proposed to simulate the energy-dissipating characteristics of VDHD. The analysis results of this model compared with the seismic resistant tests reveal that this proposed model can accurately describe the actual energy-dissipating behavior of VDHD. The efficiency of VDHD is confirmed using this proposed model for carrying out numerical analyses of bare building, building added with bulking resistant bracing (BBR), and VDHD. The energy-dissipating capabilities of VDHD are performing excellent displacement and acceleration control with various ground magnitudes; being an energy absorber to absorb mechanical energy in the structure and resist structural movement; and gathering the advantage of BRB.     

灰色模型GM(2)的建立及实际应用

对灰色模型GM ( 1 ,1 )的缺陷进行了分析 ,引入新的预测模型GM ( 2 ) ,并将两种模型进行比较 ,对于变化幅度较大的序列 ,GM ( 2 )优于GM ( 1 ,1 ) ,这为实际应用提供了一种有效的预测方法。