Community Climate Model 3模拟夏季极端降水的初步分析

采用累积频率的统计方法和Community Climate Model 3(CCM3)模拟的10年逐日降水结果,分析了模拟的夏季极端降水事件的时空分布特征.结果表明,CCM3模拟的极端降水阈值的大值区主要在我国黄河和长江流域的上游、印度半岛及其邻近海域和孟加拉湾及其北部地区.CCM3能够模拟出我国长江流域极端降水量与极端降水日数显著增加的趋势.对极端降水平均强度、降水日数以及极端降水量与总降水量比值的经验正交函数(EOF)分析可知,我国大部分地区的极端降水基本呈现同相变化,且以长江和黄河中游地区较为显著.CCM3模式基本能够模拟出观测到的极端降水阈值与总降水、极端降水日数及其距平的高空间相关性.     

企业管理信息化及其发展趋势

文章介绍了企业信息化的定义及内涵,概述了我国企业管理信息化的发展历程和现状,并对其发展趋势、发展前景作了预测。     

Relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis over the Northwest Pacific and the sea surface temperature anomalies

Using the tropical cyclone (TC) data derived from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the sea surface temperature data derived from the Joint Environmental Data Analysis Center (JEDAC) at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography from January 1955 to December 2000, we analyzed the relationship between the TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the Pacific basin. A long-term trend indicated that the highest frequency of monthly TC genesis appeared earlier and the annual genesis sum increased gradually during the last half century with some oscillations. No significant synchronous correlation was found between the NWP TC events and the SSTA over the Pacific basin, while the annual sum of TC genesis was closely related with the SSTA averaged from the first three months (January, February and March) of the year in the equatorial western and eastern Pacific and over mid-high latitudes of the North Pacific. The results implied that there are an interannual El Nio SSTA mode in the equatorial western and eastern Pacific and an interdecadal SSTA mode in the northern Pacific, which affected the TC genesis. A regression analysis between the first three-month SSTA and the annual TC sum based on two time scales was conducted. The correlation coefficient between simulated and observed TC sums reached a high value of 0.77.     

Relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis over the Northwest Pacific and the sea surface temperature anomalies

Using the tropical cyclone (TC) data derived from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the sea surface temperature data derived from the Joint Environmental Data Analysis Center (JEDAC) at the Scripps Institute of Oceanography from January 1955 to December 2000, we analyzed the relationship between the TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the Pacific basin. A long-term trend indicated that the highest frequency of monthly TC genesis appeared earlier and the annual genesis sum increased gradually during the last half century with some oscillations. No significant synchronous correlation was found between the NWP TC events and the SSTA over the Pacific basin, while the annual sum of TC genesis was closely related with the SSTA averaged from the first three months (January, February and March) of the year in the equatorial western and eastern Pacific and over mid-high latitudes of the North Pacific. The results implied that there are an interannual El Nio SSTA mode in the equatorial western and eastern Pacific and an interdecadal SSTA mode in the northern Pacific, which affected the TC genesis. A regression analysis between the first three-month SSTA and the annual TC sum based on two time scales was conducted. The correlation coefficient between simulated and observed TC sums reached a high value of 0.77.     

解读中国的趋势

从中国传统的儒家文化和老子的文化入手进行分析,阐述了他们各自的观点和不同以及两者相结合所产生的巨大的能量,从这里引申到当今的中国的一些基本的国策和他们内在的涵义,从中希望解读中国今后二三十年的国家的运程和走势.     

新形势下高校非正式组织的管理体制及发展趋势

高校中存在着"非正式组织",它的存在具有客观性,是正式组织的依附体。在分析大学生非正式组织的类型、特征及发展趋势的基础上,认为大学生工作者有必要细致了解非正式组织情况,才能以科学的方法对非正式组织进行有效地管理和引导,以便培养更多优秀人才目标的实现。     

Active Vibration Isolation System for Sub-microultra-precision Turning Machine

Now vibration isolation of ultra-precision machine tool is usually achieved through air-springs systems. As far as HCM-I sub-micro turning machine developed by HIT, an active vibration isolation system that consists of air-springs and electro-magnetic actuators was presented. The primary function of air-springs is to support the turning machine and to isolate the high-frequency vibration. The electro-magnetic actuators controlled by fuzzy-neural networks isolate the low-frequency vibration. The experiment indicates that active vibration isolation system isolates base-vibration effectively in all the frequency range. So the vibration of the machine bed is controlled under 10-6g and the surface roughness is improved.     

长征：马克思主义民族理论中国化的转折点

阐述了长征在马克思主义民族理论中国化进程中的意义。分析了长征时期党的民族理论和民族政策的发展,提出了在价值层面,长征使马克思主义民族理论中国化的价值需求急遽提升;在理论层面,长征使马克思主义民族理论中国化的政策创新空前活跃;在实践层面,长征使马克思主义民族理论中国化的实践效能卓越显著。长征的伟大实践,使长征成为马克思主义民族理论中国化的转折点。     

澳门高等教育的发展路向——建立一所具有国际学术水平的重点大学

澳门办高等教育的目的是把本澳的人才留在澳门学习和工作。澳门高等教育的发展路向应针对目前本澳高等教育的弊端而发 ,应以学术为主导 ,正确理解国际化和本地化的问题。本澳建立一个以澳门大学为重点大学的多元高等教育体制 ,符合澳门的长远战略目标 ,更是澳门未来发展成败的关键。提升澳大的教研水平和社会地位是一个很大的工程。澳大的改革应该分两步走 ,从十五个方面迈开步伐 ,使澳大具有国际学术水平 ,是真正的“大”学 ,力争在不久的将来成为澳门人精神文化生活的典范和中心     

浅谈才子佳人小说作者的心理成因

本文从明清之际的经济、政治、文化、学术思想等各方面的因素对才子佳人小说作者的心理所产生的影响来探讨了才子佳人小说作者在创作中体现出来的心理特征以及创作的目的