房地产市场信息不对称的动态博弈

通过对房地产市场信息不对称的动态博弈关系进行研究,认为目前我国房地产市场中出现问题的根本原因在于信息不对称及诚信缺失,信息不对称使得参与备方的机会主义行为盛行,正常的市场机制难以发挥应有作用.信息不对称前提下一对多的动态博弈模型能够解释目前房地产市场中出现与供求规律不相符的高空置率与高价格并存现象.研究认为,"双高"现象有利于重复博弈的开发商一方,其重要原因是讨价还价双方的信息不对称及地位不对等,使开发商具有充分的激励维持高价并在此过程中获得更多的利润,通过等待可以获得有关置业者更多风险偏好程度的信息,进而在讨价还价过程获得更多收益.信息在买卖双方之间传递的阻隔和不对称是房地产市场的普遍特征,是市场交易关系中所处地位不对等这一客观状况所造成的.为了有效地解决房地产市场的信息不对称问题,保障置业者合法利益,提高房地产市场效率,从政府、开发商和置业者等方面提出了解决房地产市场信息不对称的建议.     

PARX model for football match predictions

We propose an innovative approach to model and predict the outcome of football matches based on the Poisson autoregression with exogenous covariates (PARX) model recently proposed by Agosto, Cavaliere, Kristensen, and Rahbek (Journal of Empirical Finance, 2016, 38(B), 640–663). We show that this methodology is particularly suited to model the goal distribution of a football team and provides a good forecast performance that can be exploited to develop a profitable betting strategy. This paper improves the strand of literature on Poisson‐based models, by proposing a specification able to capture the main characteristics of goal distribution. The betting strategy is based on the idea that the odds proposed by the market do not reflect the true probability of the match because they may also incorporate the betting volumes or strategic price settings in order to exploit betters' biases. The out‐of‐sample performance of the PARX model is better than the reference approach by Dixon and Coles (Applied Statistics, 1997, 46(2), 265–280). We also evaluate our approach in a simple betting strategy, which is applied to English football Premier League data for the 2013–2014, 2014–2015, and 2015–2016 seasons. The results show that the return from the betting strategy is larger than 30% in most of the cases considered and may even exceed 100% if we consider an alternative strategy based on a predetermined threshold, which makes it possible to exploit the inefficiency of the betting market.     

Modeling and forecasting aggregate stock market volatility in unstable environments using mixture innovation regressions

We perform Bayesian model averaging across different regressions selected from a set of predictors that includes lags of realized volatility, financial and macroeconomic variables. In our model average, we entertain different channels of instability by either incorporating breaks in the regression coefficients of each individual model within our model average, breaks in the conditional error variance, or both. Changes in these parameters are driven by mixture distributions for state innovations (MIA) of linear Gaussian state‐space models. This framework allows us to compare models that assume small and frequent as well as models that assume large but rare changes in the conditional mean and variance parameters. Results using S&P 500 monthly and quarterly realized volatility data from 1960 to 2014 suggest that Bayesian model averaging in combination with breaks in the regression coefficients and the error variance through MIA dynamics generates statistically significantly more accurate forecasts than the benchmark autoregressive model. However, compared to a MIA autoregression with breaks in the regression coefficients and the error variance, we fail to provide any drastic improvements.     

中国海洋碳汇交易市场构建

 分析了发展海洋碳汇市场交易的优劣势,从海洋碳汇交易市场的构建原则、模式选择、发展路径、要素设计、运行机制及保障措施等方面,综合分析探讨了中国海洋碳汇交易市场的构建策略。结果表明：（1）中国海洋碳汇交易市场的构建应采取“市场+政府”的模式,同时市场建设应采取分阶段发展的路径安排;（2）海洋碳汇交易市场建设内容包括市场要素和供求、价格、风险等市场运行机制及支撑机制;（3）为保障海洋碳汇交易市场能够持续、有效地运行,需加强组织领导、完善体制机制,加强顶层设计、完善法律体系,深化科学研究、提高技术水平,注重人才培养、强化智力支持。     

我国企业年金市场刍议

从微观经济学的角度介绍了我国企业年金市场的现状和企业年金的市场结构,并进行了企业年金市场的供求分析,具体分为企业年金市场的供给现状分析、企业年金市场的需求现状分析、企业年金市场的供需趋势分析.     

明晰的产权与自由竞争--美国市场经济的启示

私有财产制度和自由竞争是美国自由市场经济的两大基础,正是有法律保障和政府推动的这两大基础,带来了美国经济的不断发展并获致繁荣."它山之石,可以攻玉",美国的成功经验对我们建设和完善社会主义市场经济体制具有重要的借鉴意义.     

市场经济条件下作家的创作自由

市场经济条件下,作家角色的转换、商品意识的觉醒等现实因素,促使作家自觉使创作适应文化市场规律,这无形中影响和制约了作家的创作自由。文章论述了市场经济条件下作家行使创作自由权利的真实状况,并分析其成因以及探讨作家该如何面对。     

最优潮流在市场环境下的计算分析

随着电力市场的日趋形成,电力系统最优潮流是在满足特定的电力系统运行和安全约束条件下,通过调整系统中可利用控制手段实现预定目标最优的系统稳定运行状态。     

中国传统节事活动在都市旅游中的可持续发展

传统节事活动可充分利用都市品牌和配套设施、区住、消费群等方面的有利条件,以符合市场规律的操作方式,获得更大的发展空间。都市也可借助传统节事活动的举办塑造新的旅游形象、提高旅游知名度,从而促进地方经济的发展。这样既可达到筹办传统节事活动所预期的文化宣导效应,也会带来理想的社会效应和经济效益。     

太原市家具生产企业现状分析及探索

针对太原家具行业存在无生产规模、原材料市场匮乏、生产设备落后等问题,对家具企业提出:只有保护现有的好企业,整合、淘汰不合格小厂,重新进行产品定位,着手研究并设计现代与古典风格相结合的产品,才能培养出良性循环的原材料市场和销售市场,使之走上健康发展之路。