怒江(云南段)大型底栖动物纵向分布和季节性变化规律研究

该文主要通过聚类分析和对应分析方法,以大型底栖动物科级组成上的出现与不出现代替其丰度和生物量,讨论怒江(云南段)大型底栖动物分布格局及季节性变化规律.结果表明:怒江(云南段)大型底栖动物科级组成沿河流纵向分布无明显规律,但具有相同生境类型站点的底栖动物组成较为相似;怒江(云南段)大型底栖动物科级组成春季与秋季相似性高,春、秋季与夏季有明显差异.     

公理·规则·公德——儒家私德与墨家公德之伦理辨析

通过对孔孟儒家私德伦理与墨子墨家公德伦理的比较研究,发现科学理性之缺失是儒家私德伦理陷入现代困境及其深层悖论的根源;而墨家科学理性的优势,在其兼相爱和交相利公德伦理体系建构中,起到了价值观和方法论的奠基作用。并指出:规则是社会公德的核心,遵循和崇尚规则以及公平竞争和合作,既是一种科学精神,又是一种公德精神,在当今中国社会发展和公德建设中亟待振兴。     

双掺杂二氧化钛的制备及其在降解染料废水中的应用

作者研究了溶胶-凝胶法制备的Sm、Ag共掺杂的TiO2,并用XRD、TEM等技术表征了催化剂的形貌、结构及吸光性能,样品的表征与光催化活性测试结果表明,Sm离子的引入使催化剂增加了储氧能力及热稳定性和选择性,Ag离子的掺杂显示了电荷分离抑制了光催化的促进作用和对氧气还原反应的催化作用.两种离子的引入使TiO2样品的拓宽了光响应范围,使可见光吸收强度增大.     

软科学作为一个学科门类何以可能

软、硬科学区分的哲学基础是“实证”.软科学从产生以来经历了由科学学到科学社会学,再扩展到科技与社会的历程,科技与社会是软科学的基本研究领域.软科学的三个特点决定它的理论体系具有三个维度,软科学学术队伍可分为三个群体,生存困境产生的原因是学科定位不明确.软科学的学科建设要和科学技术学的学科建设结合起来,这是学界的共识,也是构建和谐社会的要求.     

Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

一种新的模糊神经网络删剪策略

模糊规则的数量直接决定模糊神经网络结构的复杂度和效率.基于神经网络自构行学习(NNSCL)算法,用共轭剃度预条件正则方程算法求取删除隐层神经元后的剩余权值,得到改进的NNSCL-1算法.将此算法应用到模糊神经网络的规则推理层,可以极大地优化网络的规则及结构,并且结构优化后不需要重新训练也能保持网络的精确度和泛化能力.仿真结果显示了此算法的有效性和可行性.     

“比较文字学”术语的早期使用

过去认为“比较文字学”名称最早由林柷敔在1937年提出,但实际上胡适1923年起草《新学制课程标准纲要:高级中学第一组必修的特设国文课程纲要》时就已经提到了“比较文字学”。1928年贺昌群翻译《文字的起源》一文时也使用了这一名称,而林柷敔撰写《比较文字学浅识》时参考了贺昌群的文章。但林柷敔是第一个详细论述“比较文字学”内涵的学者。     

Taming theory with thought experiments: Understanding and scientific progress

I claim that one way thought experiments contribute to scientific progress is by increasing scientific understanding. Understanding does not have a currently accepted characterization in the philosophical literature, but I argue that we already have ways to test for it. For instance, current pedagogical practice often requires that students demonstrate being in either or both of the following two states: 1) Having grasped the meaning of some relevant theory, concept, law or model, 2) Being able to apply that theory, concept, law or model fruitfully to new instances. Three thought experiments are presented which have been important historically in helping us pass these tests, and two others that cause us to fail. Then I use this operationalization of understanding to clarify the relationships between scientific thought experiments, the understanding they produce, and the progress they enable. I conclude that while no specific instance of understanding (thus conceived) is necessary for scientific progress, understanding in general is.     

阿罗不可能性定理和社会选择的无矛盾性问题

2017年2月21日,国际著名数理经济学家、1972年度诺贝尔(Nobel)经济学奖获得者阿罗(K.J.Arrow)于美国辞世。谨作此文,以纪念他在社会选择理论,特别是其中将有关数学应用于研究经济学领域发现的"阿罗不可能性定理"作出的重大贡献。