Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

超支化不饱和聚(酰胺-酯)的改性及热分解动力学

采用不同链长的十四酰氯和十八酰氯对超支化不饱和聚(酰胺-酯)(MHBP)的端羟基进行原位端基改性,制备出2种改性超支化聚合物,用傅立叶红外光谱(FTIR)、热重分析(TGA)、黏度法等对其结构及性能进行表征,并研究了它们的热分解行为及其热分解动力学.结果表明,其热分解反应不是一级反应,改性超支化聚合物的热稳定性与末端烷烃链的长度有关,用Ozawa法求出了热分解表观活化能.     

黑龙江省伊春市五营国家森林公园负离子研究

根据伊春市五营国家森林公园中的空气负氧离子浓度的实测资料,利用空气离子单极系数及空气离子评价系数进行了评价和研究.结果表明,该森林公园中空气负离子含量达到国际旅游度假区一级标准,空气清洁度属于A级“最清洁”;在动态水周围的一定范围内随着与动态水的距离的逐渐增大,空气离子单极系数大致呈线性增加趋势;空气离子评价系数值大致呈线性减小趋势.而在这个范围之外,两个值都将趋于平缓;在分别以红松、冷杉和白桦三种树种为主体的纯林中,空气清洁度均在早晚时比较高,在中午时出现低谷.     

相对资源承载力综合分析与评价——以江苏省沭阳县为例

以江苏省典型的农业大县——沭阳县为研究单元,分别以江苏省、宿迁市为参照区域,对沭阳县相对土地资源承载力、相对经济资源承载力和综合承载力进行了综合分析和评价;并以沭阳县为参照区域,探讨了37个乡镇相对资源承载力的地域差异.研究表明,沭阳县综合承载力小于实际人口,呈超载状态;相对土地资源承载力对综合承载力的贡献率在50%以上,而经济资源承载能力有待加强;相对资源承载力呈现一定的空间差异特征,35%的乡镇相对超载,65%的乡镇相对富余.     

非接触IC卡的信息安全策略论述

讨论了非接触型IC卡的信息安全技术,在应用中为保证非接触型IC卡的数据安全所采取的措施等问题.     

住达三期工程沉降观测技术探讨

在住宅建设施工测绘中,使用瑞士莱卡NA2补尝式自动安平水准仪进行外业数据采集,结合威远图沉降数据处理软件进行沉降观测的技术方法,降低了施工成本,大大提高了工作效率.     

Taming theory with thought experiments: Understanding and scientific progress

I claim that one way thought experiments contribute to scientific progress is by increasing scientific understanding. Understanding does not have a currently accepted characterization in the philosophical literature, but I argue that we already have ways to test for it. For instance, current pedagogical practice often requires that students demonstrate being in either or both of the following two states: 1) Having grasped the meaning of some relevant theory, concept, law or model, 2) Being able to apply that theory, concept, law or model fruitfully to new instances. Three thought experiments are presented which have been important historically in helping us pass these tests, and two others that cause us to fail. Then I use this operationalization of understanding to clarify the relationships between scientific thought experiments, the understanding they produce, and the progress they enable. I conclude that while no specific instance of understanding (thus conceived) is necessary for scientific progress, understanding in general is.     

Creating ‘Rhizomatic Systems’ for Understanding Complexity in Organizations

The article describes and demonstrates the use of a new research proposal for understanding the complexity in organizations in terms of a Deleuzian sense of an event. It creates the rhizome metaphor that allows the emergence of different ways of systems thinking, a legitimate challenge to the Modernist’s orthodoxy. For Deleuze and Guattari, micropolitics are the essence of what we call ‘rhizomatic systems.’ It is this concept of the organization, as a rhizome or rhizomatic systems that we want to focus from ‘problem solving’ in a real-world situation to the process of problematization, that is, the making or appreciating a series of events in the problematizing fields. The paper draws on the research experience in which participatory action research was carried out in a Korean distribution company. The participatory learning process happened to create a series of events in which ‘time-related research’ was conducted in order to facilitate the process of problematization within the organization.

Glycogen synthase kinase 3β and Alzheimer’s disease: pathophysiological and therapeutic significance

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder associated with cognitive and behavioral dysfunction and is the leading cause of dementia in the elderly. Several studies have implicated molecular and cellular signaling cascades involving the serine-threonine kinase, glycogen synthase kinase β(GSK-3β) in the pathogenesis of AD. GSK-3β may play an important role in the formation of neurofibrillary tangles and senile plaques, the two classical pathological hallmarks of AD. In this review, we discuss the interaction between GSK-3β and several key molecules involved in AD, including the presenilins, amyloid precursor protein, tau, and β-amyloid. We identify the signal transduction pathways involved in the pathogenesis of AD, including Wnt, Notch, and the PI3 kinase/Akt pathway. These may be potential therapeutic targets in AD. Received 19 December 2005; received after revision 24 January 2006; accepted 6 February 2006