The impact on the performance of growth curve models of changes in parameter re-estimation period and other factors

A simulation model of a real electricity supply undertaking was used to provide a financial performance measure for growth curve forecasting models. The impact on financial performance was determined when changes were made in (1) the method of estimating the model parameters, (2) the period between re-estimations, (3) the growth curve fitted and (4) the amount of smoothing of the demand time-series. The response to variation of the parameter review period was found to behave surprisingly, in that it exhibited different signs for two different estimation methods. Changes in re-estimation period explained somewhat more of the variation in performance than did a change in growth curve. Correcting the demand series for conditions which were known to be abnormal improved performance.     

单电极直流电弧炉热态模拟试验研究

在容量250 kg的单电极直流炼钢电弧试验炉上进行了热态模拟试验研究,探讨了伏安特性、功率、电效率以及耐火材料烧损指数等单电极直流电弧炉的电热特性。试验研究结果表明,单电极直流电弧炉具有不同于三相交流电弧炉的电热特性。     

Fitting of growth curves over time when the data are obtained from a single realization

This paper focuses on the general problem of forecasting the maximum value of a time series which by the nature of the data must approach an asymptotic value. Examples of such series include the growth of organisms, the concentration of a chemical reagent during a reaction occurring over time or the amount of a fossil fuel resource which has been discovered or produced as a function of time. The approach taken below differs from the usual models for this type of data in that it assumes that an unobserved time series is actually driving the process, and that the observed data series is a function of the unobserved process. In the case of fossil fuels the unobserved series might be a measure of the exploratory drilling, the number of production days in a given time period or even the amount of fiscal resources devoted to exploratory activities. A maximum likelihood method is developed for estimating the parameters of the process, especially the maximum S, and the covariance structure of the estimators is developed. The methodology is illustrated on an example of oil production. Finally, methods are developed for forecasting the data into the near future.     

麦克尔逊干涉实验的计算机模拟

利用VB编程技术及Win32API函数,在计算机上创建麦克尔逊干涉的模拟实验环境,实验利用双光束干涉光强公式获得麦克尔逊的干涉条纹,并模拟干涉条纹的移动和对干涉条纹进行仿真测量。该实验环境可完成设备创建、设备操作、现象观察和数据测量等实验过程。     

AutoCAD2000平台上直齿圆柱齿轮参数化建模

提出了在AutoCAD2000平台上,用Autolisp语言编程对直齿圆柱齿轮参数化建模的方法．该方法操作简便,造型精确,可大大提高设计效率．     

磷酸二氢钾对“银拖”墨兰生长发育的影响

通过盆栽试验,研究了不同浓度(0%,0.1%,0.3%,0.6%)的磷酸二氢钾(KH2PO4)对"银拖"墨兰生长发育的影响,结果表明:喷施0.1%~0.6%磷酸二氢钾对其生长发育有显著影响,能增加"银拖"墨兰的花箭长度和使其开花期提前,其中喷施0.1%可增加叶片的长度及促进叶绿素含量的增加,喷施0.3%可增加叶片的宽度和促进叶片可溶性糖含量增加。     

一种双向AC／DC变换器数学模型

提出一种双向ＡＣ／ＤＣ变换器的状态空间平均模型,并在此基础上,经过理论分析得出一系列有价值的公式与结论。通过ＭＡＴＬＡＢ数值仿真和实验结果,证实该模型及理论的正确性。     

Growth, structural, optical, thermal and dielectric properties of a novel semi-organic nonline ar optical crystal: Dichloro-diglycine zinc II

Dichloro-diglycine zinc II(DCDGZ II),a semi-organic nonlinear optical material has been synthesized and single crystals were grown from the aqueous solution up to dimensions 20×10×3 mm3.The title compound,DCDGZ II(C4H10Cl2N2O4Zn H2O) crystallizes into monoclinic structure with the space group of C2/c.The unit-cell parameters were found to be a=14.4191(7),b=6.9180(2),c=12.9452(6) and Z=4.In the crystal structure,DCDGZ II layer is building up alternatingly with layers of water in which the zinc ions lie on a twofold axis.Theoretical calculations for polarizability,which are useful for device fabrication were made using Clausius–Mosotti equation and Penn analysis and the results were compared.Fourier transform infrared(FTIR) spectroscopic studies were performed for the identification of the different functional groups presented in the compound.The UV–vis–NIR absorption spectrum reveals that the lower UV cut-off wavelength is 240 nm.The optical band gap of the crystal was estimated as 2.2 eV.The surface morphology,thermal behaviour,dielectric properties have been studied using SEM,TG/DTA and LCR HITESTER analyzer.The nonlinear optical property of the crystal was also confirmed using Kurtz powder technique.     

施肥处理对尾叶桉生长量和木材密度的影响

研究了不同施肥处理对６ ａ 生尾叶桉单株材积、年轮宽度、密度的影响规律,结果表明：从髓心向外,６ ａ 生尾叶桉年轮宽度呈逐渐减小趋势,基本密度呈逐渐上升趋势;施肥处理可以显著加快６ ａ 生尾叶桉的生长速度,提高尾叶桉的生长量;而造林当年施肥不仅加快尾叶桉当年的生长速度,对后期生长也有较好的促进作用;各施肥处理与对照材木片密度无显著差异。     

一种简便的静电场数值模拟方法

利用两个实例,我们阐述了对静电场做数值模拟的一种简便方法。