Coincidence and reproducibility in the EHT black hole experiment

This paper discusses some philosophical aspects related to the recent publication of the experimental results of the 2017 black hole experiment, namely the first image of the supermassive black hole at the center of galaxy M87. In this paper I present a philosophical analysis of the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) black hole experiment. I first present Hacking's philosophy of experimentation. Hacking gives his taxonomy of elements of laboratory science and distinguishes a list of elements. I show that the EHT experiment conforms to major elements from Hacking's list. I then describe with the help of Galison's Philosophy of the Shadow how the EHT Collaboration created the famous black hole image. Galison outlines three stages for the reconstruction of the black hole image: Socio-Epistemology, Mechanical Objectivity, after which there is an additional Socio-Epistemology stage. I subsequently present my own interpretation of the reconstruction of the black hole image and I discuss model fitting to data. I suggest that the main method used by the EHT Collaboration to assure trust in the results of the EHT experiment is what philosophers call the Argument from Coincidence. I show that using this method for the above purpose is problematic. I present two versions of the Argument from Coincidence: Hacking's Coincidence and Cartwright's Reproducibility by which I analyse the EHT experiment. The same estimation of the mass of the black hole is reproduced in four different procedures. The EHT Collaboration concludes: the value we have converged upon is robust. I analyse the mass measurements of the black hole with the help of Cartwright's notion of robustness. I show that the EHT Collaboration construe Coincidence/Reproducibility as Technological Agnosticism and I contrast this interpretation with van Fraassen's scientific agnosticism.     

基于指标函数的舰载机机队回收调度优化研究

由于复飞逃逸、飞行故障等因素随机发生, 传统静态调度方法难以有效解决动态随机调度问题。对此,提出一种基于飞机优先序指标函数的蒙特卡罗模拟-差分进化搜索的实时调度算法。在离线模拟回收环境下,由算法完成基于随机模型的指标函数系数优化,后由该指标函数实现对机队优先序的实时评估排序,进而完成回收在线动态调度。仿真结果表明所提算法能有效解决回收调度问题。在相同机队初始输入下, 目标值呈现较好统计特性, 其期望值能够快速收敛到一定范围, 且无复飞情况下着舰时间窗目标呈显著正态性; 不同回收机队输入对指标系数最优值的散布较小, 表明指标函数评估优先序具有较好的通用性和有效性; 模拟回收调度发现, 着舰成功率的提高将显著降低机队复飞次数, 提高回收效率。     

一种针对“低慢小”目标的栅格化感知系统设计

针对“低慢小”目标探测面临的问题,提出了一种栅格化理念解决问题思路,给出了栅格化感知系统的定义,设计了栅格化感知系统,包括传感器分系统、通信分系统、管理控制中心和综合保障分系统等组成和工作过程。分析了栅格化感知系统的关键技术,包括传感器低成本设计、“低慢小”目标检测、数据融合处理等技术。研究了栅格化感知系统的部署原则,建立部署原则模型,对于解决“低慢小”目标探测具有现实指导意义。     

Interpreting cosmic no hair theorems: Is fatalism about the far future of expanding cosmological models unavoidable?

It may be tempting to interpret cosmic no hair theorems (establishing that, under certain conditions, a cosmological model with accelerating expansion approaches de Sitter metric in the future) as implying a form of fatalism about a future state of the universe. In this note I explore (rather general) philosophical and (more concrete) physical reasons to resist such temptation. There are good reasons to think that (even locally) futures of expanding cosmological models may be unlike de Sitter.     

空中联合投送任务规划仿真与效能评估系统

空中投送体系在现代战争中发挥着重要作用。与美俄等军事强国相比,我国空中投送体系还存在明显的短板与不足。针对投送体系论证与使用分析需求,围绕运输机与货物、机场、航线之间的交互关系以及投送体系内多机型的协同关系,开发建立了一套具有模型构建与管理、想定编辑、运输任务规划、仿真推演、效能评估等模块的投送体系仿真与分析系统,可实现装载方案自动生成、任务流程自动规划、多机型组合使用优选、多任务动态调度等功能,能为我国未来投送体系与投送装备的发展论证提供技术手段。     

军用飞机隐身与高度指标综合权衡

首先指出了军用飞机战技指标论证中孤立分析各项性能参数的缺陷;然后以军用飞机高度指标和隐身指标论证为例,综合分析了隐身与高度指标之间的关系,并结合类比分析结论,最后形成了军用飞机隐身与高度指标的综合论证要求。     

由General Chemistry的译名说起

本文提出我国化学教育中的两点失误原因,其中对General一词翻译有误,也导致了在化学教育中的不利影响,应该予以纠正,重新修订化学专业教学计划和课程设置方案,把化学教学改革推向前进.     

生态学实验教学模式改革的探讨

本文结合生态学实验教学模式改革的进行,探讨生态学实验教学过程初步探索和实践的效果,并且分析生态学实验教学改革中的不足,对高校开展生态学教学改革研究具有重要意义。     

宇宙年龄和宇宙物质密度

根据爱因斯坦广义相对论,时空弯曲,宇宙是有限的。现在已被主流物理学家普遍接受的是标准宇宙论,按标准宇宙论经过严格的数学推导,演算得到了宇宙的年龄、宇宙物质密度。作者根据广大天体物理工作者认可的观察数据和结论,通过初等数学的计算,得到的结果大相径庭。根本没天体物工作者寻找的暗物质。     

Mach׳s principle as action-at-a-distance in GR: The causality question

A part of the revival of interest in Mach׳s principle since the early 1960s has involved work by physicists aimed at calculating various sorts of frame-dragging effects by matter shells surrounding an interior region, and arguing that under certain conditions or in certain limits (ideally, ones that can be viewed as plausibly similar to conditions in our cosmos) the frame dragging becomes “complete” (e.g. Lynden-Bell, Katz, & Bičák, 1995) . Such results can bolster the argument for the satisfaction of Mach׳s principle by certain classes of models of GR. Interestingly, the frame-dragging “effect” of (say) a rotational movement of cosmic matter around a central point is argued by these physicists to be instantaneous—not an effect propagating at the speed of light. Not all physicists regard this as unproblematic. But rather than exploring whether there is something unphysical about such instantaneous “action at a distance”, or a violation of the precepts of Special Relativity, I am interested in exploring whether these physicists׳ calculations should be thought of as showing local inertia (resistance to acceleration) to be an effect, with distant matter distributions being the cause. I will try to apply some leading philosophical accounts of causation to the physical models of frame dragging, to see whether they imply that the frame dragging is superluminal causation. I will then offer reflections on the difficulties of applying causal talk in physical theories.