Dynamic Latent Class Model Averaging for Online Prediction

We consider the problem of online prediction when it is uncertain what the best prediction model to use is. We develop a method called dynamic latent class model averaging, which combines a state‐space model for the parameters of each of the candidate models of the system with a Markov chain model for the best model. We propose a polychotomous regression model for the transition weights to assume that the probability of a change in time depends on the past through the values of the most recent time periods and spatial correlation among the regions. The evolution of the parameters in each submodel is defined by exponential forgetting. This structure allows the ‘correct’ model to vary over both time and regions. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed model naturally incorporates clustering and prediction analysis in a single unified framework. We develop an efficient Gibbs algorithm for computation, and we demonstrate the value of our framework on simulated experiments and on a real‐world problem: forecasting IBM's corporate revenue. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non-invasive genetic study and population monitoring of the brown bear (Ursus arctos) (Mammalia: Ursidae) in Kastoria region – Greece

The brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Greece is considered endangered but little is known about the genetic status and the exact size of local populations. Non-invasive genetic sampling was used in this study to investigate the genetic diversity and genetic structure of the brown bear population in the Kastoria region (northwest Macedonia, Greece) and to estimate its population size. Estimation of demographic parameters was based on innovative, well-evaluated methods that can provide estimates from a single sampling session. DNA was extracted from hairs, scat and blood samples and subsequent amplification of 10 microsatellite loci allowed the identification of a minimum number of 75 living bears in the study area while the mark–recapture-based analysis resulted in a point estimation of 219 individuals. Relatively high diversity values, lack of heterozygosity deficiency as well as estimated effective population size, support the Kastoria bear population having good conservation status.     

尾矿坝振动实验数据样本容量的优化研究

针对铀尾矿坝振动实验逸出氡累积浓度数据样本容量设计的主观性,本文基于偏向角绝对值均值递减还原逸出氡累积浓度曲线,采用随机起点等距抽样方法,得到不同样本容量的数据子集;通过曲线拟合和样本决定系数度量不同子集对还原实验数据集的代表能力。在保障实验研究精度条件下,得到使实验成本较优的最小样本容量,实验结果表明在样本决定系数大于0.98时,优化后样本容量为实验数据样本容量的10%以下。     

基于Fibonacci采样的数据预处理方法研究

提高神经网络(NN)的收敛速率和预测精度一直是人工智能领域的一个挑战性问题,尽管许多研究人员已在研究中使用小批量数据训练神经网络获得了较好的效果,但是这些方法并不够灵活.针对这个问题,该文提出了一种新的数据预处理算法即Fibonacci采样算法.根据Fibonacci数列规则绘制一个新的训练数据序列,这不仅可以恢复小批...     

有限自动机积的初(末)态试验序列、UIO序列和同步序列

主要对积运算后有限自动机的初(末)态试验序列、U IO序列和同步序列进行了讨论,给出了积运算后的有限自动机与积运算前有限自动机的初(末)态试验序列、U IO序列和同步序列的联系,并给出了极小有限自动机的初态试验序列与U IO序列间的联系。     

基于DSP的同步电动机数字式励磁系统设计

通过对同步电动机励磁系统主电路与控制电路的分析与研究,设计了一个以DSP为核心的同步电动机数字式励磁系统,该系统采用了积分分离增量式PID算法,保证了调节精度．系统电路简单、结构紧凑、效率高、功能丰富．可用于各种同步电动机励磁控制装置．     

基于PC的水轮机组多通道振动数据采集系统设计

提出了一个基于PC的水轮机在线多通道振动数据采集系统的设计方案．对数据采集系统的特点进行了分析,采用中断＋FIFO的方式对多通道振动信号连续采集,并通过插值算法进行二次采样,得到了准同步整周期信号．在此基础上,用数字滤波算法去除了信号干扰,并对采集系统的精度进行了检验,结果表明,通过二次采样所得的信号与同步整周期采样的信号基本一致,可以满足振动监测的需要．     

GPS软件接收机中C/A码信号捕获的圆周相关算法

采用圆周相关算法实现全球卫星定位系统(GPS)C/A码信号的捕获. 该算法用快速傅立叶变换将输入数据和本地产生的数据变换到频率域, 在频率域进行二者的圆周相关处理, 对相关结果反变换并找到其最大绝对值, 将该值与预先设定的门限值比较, 如果大于门限值, 则信号捕获成功. 圆周相关算法可实现快速获取GPS C/A码信号, 且灵敏度较高.     

Compressive sensing based multiuser detector for massive MBM MIMO uplink

Media based modulation(MBM)is expected to be a prominent modulation scheme,which has access to the high data rate by using radio frequency(RF)mirrors and fewer transmit antennas.Associated with multiuser multiple input multiple output(MIMO),the MBM scheme achieves better performance than other conventional multiuser MIMO schemes.In this paper,the massive MIMO uplink is considered and a conjunctive MBM transmission scheme for each user is employed.This conjunctive MBM transmission scheme gathers aggregate MBM signals in multiple continuous time slots,which exploits the structured sparsity of these aggregate MBM signals.Under this kind of scenario,a multiuser detector with low complexity based on the compressive sensing(CS)theory to gain better detection performance is proposed.This detector is developed from the greedy sparse recovery technique compressive sampling matching pursuit(CoSaMP)and exploits not only the inherently distributed sparsity of MBM signals but also the structured sparsity of multiple aggregate MBM signals.By exploiting these sparsity,the proposed CoSaMP based multiuser detector achieves reliable detection with low complexity.Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed CoSaMP based multiuser detector achieves better detection performance compared with the conventional methods.     

基于有限时间LaSalle不变集的PMSM混沌控制

为有效地抑制永磁同步电动机系统的混沌行为,基于有限时间理论和LaSalle不变集定理设计了一种自适应控制器。分析了永磁同步电动机系统的混沌动力学特性,确定了系统处于不同运动状态的参数域;在理论上证明该控制器能够在有限时间内稳定到平衡点且能自动跟踪系统平衡点;仿真实验证明,该控制方案形式简单,快速性更好,稳定性更高。研究结果对保证永磁同步电动机的稳定运行具有重要意义。