Estimation of earthquake losses by using macroeconomic approach

Most earthquake loss studies use an inventory approach by which the predicted damages in various categories of structures and facilities in a concerned region are estimated and added together to obtain the total estimated. Such an approach requires a detailed inventory database of the structures and facilities in the region, which is not always readily available in many regions of the world. Therefore, an alternative means of estimating earthquake losses is used based on several macroeconomic indices such as the gross domestic product (GDP) and population. Based on the published earthquake loss data during 1980–1995, the relations between GDP and earthquake losses have been formulated empirically for several intensity ranges. The world’s land surface was divided into unit cells with 0.5° × 0.5° in size, the GDP of each cell was apportioned based on its population and the GDP and population of the region to which it belongs. The predicted seismic loss of the cell was then estimated from the seismic hazard probability function, its GDP and the empirical relation between GDP and seismic loss. Accordingly, a global seismic loss map is compiled. Employing readily available social economic data as the basis for the vulnerability analysis, the method enables us to obtain seismic loss estimates for regions without a detailed inventory of exposed structures or the required collateral geological information. Seismic loss estimates can also be upgraded easily with social economic data collection for the fast developing areas of the world.     

物流总成本及其构成与GDP关系的分析

从物流管理的基本目标出发,采用物流成本作为评价指标,把宏观物流总成本的基本构成分为3部分:库存费用、运输费用、管理费用。通过对美国、日本、中国等国家与地区宏观物流成本及其构成与GDP的关系分析,解析出一国物流总成本及其构成与该国GDP关系的一般性规律。     

我国原油进口量与国际原油价格及GDP的实证关系研究

近年来,我国原油进口量稳步提升,原油进口已经成为我国经济可持续发展的重要影响因素。对我国原油进口量与国际原油价格、我国GDP以及三大产业之间的关系进行了深入分析。结果表明,我国原油进口量与我国GDP及三大产业之间存在长期协整关系,而国际原油价格对我国原油进口量影响甚微。通过建立原油进口量以及三大产业之间的VAR模型发现,我国原油进口量对三大产业的影响程度依次为第三产业、第一产业、第二产业。最后根据研究结果,对我国原油战略提出了建议。     

GDP指标核算缺陷及可能的修正方法

国民经济核算体系(SNA)以及体系中的核心指标GDP,是衡量一个国家经济水平和经济发展的重要指标。但该指标在实际使用中存在许多局限性,原因有GDP自身构造上的缺陷,也有人为的扭曲。如何更好地反映一个国家经济发展状况,文章对GDP指标核算提出修正思考。     

The Euro‐Sting Revisited: The Usefulness of Financial Indicators to Obtain Euro Area GDP Forecasts

This paper uses an extension of the Euro‐Sting single‐index dynamic factor model to construct short‐term forecasts of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area by accounting for financial variables as leading indicators. From a simulated real‐time exercise, the model is used to investigate the forecasting accuracy across the different phases of the business cycle. Our extension is also used to evaluate the relative forecasting ability of the two most reliable business cycle surveys for the euro area: the PMI and the ESI. We show that the latter produces more accurate GDP forecasts than the former. Finally, the proposed model is also characterized by its great ability to capture the European business cycle, as well as the probabilities of expansion and/or contraction periods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

山西的循环经济

介绍了循环经济在国内外的实践情况,论述了在山西发展循环经济的必要性,提出了在山西发展循环经济的几点看法和建议。     

基于主成分分析的无线电频率使用率综合评价

为深入分析挖掘无线电频率使用率测试数据与经济发展的关联性，科学评估频谱资源的效用价值，综合空域、时域、频域、用户4个方面因素，构建无线电频率使用率综合评价体系。采用主成分分析法，使用2018年某省16个地级市频率使用率专项测试数据，对15个指标进行主成分分析; 从宏观角度对频谱资源使用与经济发展之间的关系进行综合分析，计算各指标权重; 提取6个主成分来代替原有15个指标，对16个地市无线电频率使用率进行综合评分及排序，并与国内生产总值(GDP)排名进行对比分析。分析表明，频率使用率综合情况与地区经济发展状况正相关，其中年时间占用度、覆盖率、用户渗透率3个指标对经济发展的影响程度较大。