安徽省农业基本建设投资波动的影响分析

通过对安徽省农业基本建设投资的波动及其与农业增加值波动的关联性进行计量分析,结果表明农业基本建设投资的波动对农业生产具有不利影响。在此基础上,提出了稳定增加财政农业基本建设投资的政策建议。     

新世纪初期中国城市化与经济增长关系的定量分析

城市化与经济发展之间是一种相互促进、互为因果的关系。以往的研究多以经济发展水平为自变量来研究相应的城市化水平,而以城市化水平为自变量反向研究他们的关系则不多,这种研究具有更积极的实际意义,模型也更为简单。从人口城市化和空间城市化两个方面,用统计数据的时间序列和空间序列进行相关分析和回归分析,结果表明:中国单位人口城市化率增量对应的人均产值增量在350～1 600元/人之间,且新世纪以来逐年提高,中国人口城市化的经济效益越来越好;单位空间城市化率增量对应的地均产值增量在2.7～12.5万元/KM2之间,新世纪以来先降后升,存在波动,2003年后城市土地利用的经济效益逐年提高。     

The Euro‐Sting Revisited: The Usefulness of Financial Indicators to Obtain Euro Area GDP Forecasts

This paper uses an extension of the Euro‐Sting single‐index dynamic factor model to construct short‐term forecasts of quarterly GDP growth for the euro area by accounting for financial variables as leading indicators. From a simulated real‐time exercise, the model is used to investigate the forecasting accuracy across the different phases of the business cycle. Our extension is also used to evaluate the relative forecasting ability of the two most reliable business cycle surveys for the euro area: the PMI and the ESI. We show that the latter produces more accurate GDP forecasts than the former. Finally, the proposed model is also characterized by its great ability to capture the European business cycle, as well as the probabilities of expansion and/or contraction periods. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国原油进口量与国际原油价格及GDP的实证关系研究

近年来,我国原油进口量稳步提升,原油进口已经成为我国经济可持续发展的重要影响因素。对我国原油进口量与国际原油价格、我国GDP以及三大产业之间的关系进行了深入分析。结果表明,我国原油进口量与我国GDP及三大产业之间存在长期协整关系,而国际原油价格对我国原油进口量影响甚微。通过建立原油进口量以及三大产业之间的VAR模型发现,我国原油进口量对三大产业的影响程度依次为第三产业、第一产业、第二产业。最后根据研究结果,对我国原油战略提出了建议。     

山西的循环经济

介绍了循环经济在国内外的实践情况,论述了在山西发展循环经济的必要性,提出了在山西发展循环经济的几点看法和建议。     

Estimation of earthquake losses by using macroeconomic approach

Most earthquake loss studies use an inventory approach by which the predicted damages in various categories of structures and facilities in a concerned region are estimated and added together to obtain the total estimated. Such an approach requires a detailed inventory database of the structures and facilities in the region, which is not always readily available in many regions of the world. Therefore, an alternative means of estimating earthquake losses is used based on several macroeconomic indices such as the gross domestic product (GDP) and population. Based on the published earthquake loss data during 1980–1995, the relations between GDP and earthquake losses have been formulated empirically for several intensity ranges. The world’s land surface was divided into unit cells with 0.5° × 0.5° in size, the GDP of each cell was apportioned based on its population and the GDP and population of the region to which it belongs. The predicted seismic loss of the cell was then estimated from the seismic hazard probability function, its GDP and the empirical relation between GDP and seismic loss. Accordingly, a global seismic loss map is compiled. Employing readily available social economic data as the basis for the vulnerability analysis, the method enables us to obtain seismic loss estimates for regions without a detailed inventory of exposed structures or the required collateral geological information. Seismic loss estimates can also be upgraded easily with social economic data collection for the fast developing areas of the world.     

物流总成本及其构成与GDP关系的分析

从物流管理的基本目标出发,采用物流成本作为评价指标,把宏观物流总成本的基本构成分为3部分:库存费用、运输费用、管理费用。通过对美国、日本、中国等国家与地区宏观物流成本及其构成与GDP的关系分析,解析出一国物流总成本及其构成与该国GDP关系的一般性规律。     

GDP指标核算缺陷及可能的修正方法

国民经济核算体系(SNA)以及体系中的核心指标GDP,是衡量一个国家经济水平和经济发展的重要指标。但该指标在实际使用中存在许多局限性,原因有GDP自身构造上的缺陷,也有人为的扭曲。如何更好地反映一个国家经济发展状况,文章对GDP指标核算提出修正思考。     

广西海洋生态经济系统可持续发展动态评价

动态评价广西海洋生态经济系统可持续发展水平,为系统优化提供针对性的建议,为广西海洋生态文明建设和海洋强区建设提供决策参考。本研究运用能值分析理论和方法,构建包括能值密度、能值货币比率、人均能值用量、能值产出率、环境负载率、能值生态承载力、可持续发展指数、海洋绿色GDP、海洋绿色GDP占比的评价指标体系,深入研究2006-2020年广西海洋生态经济系统的运行状况和可持续发展水平,并对广西海洋绿色GDP及海洋绿色GDP占比进行核算。研究发现,广西海洋生态经济系统对自然资源依赖程度大,可更新资源能值占比90%以上。2006-2020年系统总能值增加22.65%,其中可更新资源能值增加20.07%,不可更新资源能值增加3.45倍,废弃物能值增加5.13倍;随着海洋资源不断开发,能值密度提高22.45%,能值货币比率减少77.67%,能值产出率在0.45-0.60波动,海洋经济得到较快发展,涉海人员生活水平有所提高,但海洋资源利用效率不高;系统所承受的环境压力较小,但由于海洋经济粗放发展的负面影响,环境负载率增加2.70倍,能值生态承载力降低1.87%;可持续发展指数的平均值为39.99,总体上...     

税收增长的动态回归分析

利用过去25年间税收收入和GDP数据，建立自回归分布滞后模型进行短期及长期税收弹性分析，估计结果不仅支持了近几年我国税收高速增长主要是恢复性增长的观点，而且说明短期内税收增长具有较大惯性，此外也揭示出经济增长最终决定税收能否长期保持增长态势。