随机激励下藻类生态系统的分岔研究

为了研究随机干扰因素与藻类生态系统稳定性之间的相互关系,运用随机非线性理论中的随机平均法和Oseledec乘性遍历定理研究了浮游动物和浮游植物构成的藻类生态系统的稳定性和分岔特性.通过对稳态概率密度的数值模拟,确定系统会发生随机Hopf分岔.研究结果表明,随机因素可以使系统稳定性发生质的变化.     

基于最大流原理的复杂生态系统分形结构

生态系统具有分形等复杂性特点,一直是学术界关注的热点和难点.而现有的研究大都缺乏深入的动力学机理分析.针对这一空白,本文以一个远离平衡的复杂系统总是努力寻找一种优化过程,使得系统在给定的约束或代价下所获得的广义流最大这个思想出发,从微观动力学角度探讨了生态系统模式的分形长大过程.从尺度变化角度对分形生长思想进行了MATLAB数值模拟佐证.分析了影响分形维数的因素并比较了理论结果与实际例子,进而讨论了在实践中的可能应用.     

海水养殖对海域生态系统的影响及其生物修复

海水养殖业的迅速发展对海域生态系统产生了一系列的严重影响,本文综述了海水养殖带来的营养盐污染及沉积环境变化、药物使用污染、对天然生物的影响等问题.对于海水养殖造成的问题,有着多种治理方式,基于养殖生态系统的生物修复,是近年来新兴的安全有效的修复方法.本文介绍了微生物修复、大型海藻修复、贝-藻修复、人工湿地修复等生物修复方法及其研究进展.随着研究的不断深入,治理的方式也越来越多,但要想从根本上解决海水养殖带来的污染及影响,基于生态系统的海水养殖管理乃是实现海水养殖业可持续发展的关键.     

景观设计的坐标——生态设计

景观的生态性并不是新鲜的概念。无论在什么环境中建造,景观都与自然发生密切的联系。任何与生态过程相协调,尽量使其对环境的影响破坏达到最小的设计形式都称为生态设计。景观与生态设计反映了人类新的美学观和价值观——人与自然的友爱关系。     

南海北部大陆架海洋生态系统Ecopath模型的应用与分析

过度捕捞和环境恶化导致渔业资源和海洋生态系统逆向发展。采用EwE5.1软件,对南海北部大陆架建立Ecopath(生态通道模型)模型。通过各级流量、生物量、生产量、捕捞量、系统总流量以及生态位和混和营养效应等方面的分析,得出营养流通主要有2种途径,肉食鱼类间饵料竞争非常激烈,低值鱼类间具相似的捕食压力,顶级捕食者对大部分鱼类负效应不明显。系统受过度捕捞渔业影响很大,并存在营养级I利用效率低和渔业资源小型化、低值化等不稳定的幼态特征。     

^226Ra evidence for the ecosystem shift over the past 40 years in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

Surface seawater was collected for ~(226)Ra measurement in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre from July to October, 1999 and October to December, 2003. Combined with the historical data reported for this sea area, a declined trend of surface ~(226)Ra concentrations was observed since 1960s, indicating the ecosystem shift in response to global warming. On one side, the enhanced stratification of the upper water column resulting from global warming reduced the ~(226)Ra input from the depth, on the other, the temporal increase of biological production resulting from the climate-related ecosystem structure change strengthened the ~(226)Ra removal from the surface ocean. Both the physical and biological processes resulted in the decrease of surface ~(226)Ra concentrations in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. The temporal trend of surface ~(226)Ra concentrations was consistent with the trends of chlorophyll a, silicate, phosphate and primary production previously reported. This study provided ~(226)Ra evidence for the ecosystem shift under global change.     

Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS （providing regional climates for impacts studies） system introduced to China from.the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution （50 kmx50 km） over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model ＂Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model （AVIM2）＂ was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production （NPP） of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.     

洪湖湿地生态系统服务价值评估研究

针对目前生态系统服务价值评估研究中存在的一些问题,以洪湖湿地为例,通过分析生态系统服务影响范围的尺度及其主要受益人,确定应纳入评估的生态系统服务及其评价指标的方法,避免评估过程中的重复计算,并提高评价结果的准确性,研究结果表明:洪湖湿地的生态系统服务总价值为21.020 4×108元,其中水产品供给价值占59.0%,涵养水源与调蓄洪水价值占29.1%,因此,在制定洪湖开发利用政策时应综合考虑其生态效益,避免生态环境破坏,才能实现当地社会和经济的可持续发展.     

随机森林在企业信用评估指标体系确定中的应用

评估指标体系的确定是企业信用评估的一个关键环节,指标体系选取的好坏直接影响模型的预测准确率.本文引进组合学习算法的新方法随机森林(Random Forest,RF)来选择指标,使得到的指标体系更加客观,更加符合机器学习的特点.实验证明,该方法确定的指标体系能更有效地体现企业的信用状况,使用该指标体系建立的随机森林评估模型具有更高的预测准确率.     

基于面向对象技术的生态系统服务功能价值计算方法

依托数据库技术和面向对象(object oriented,OO)计算机技术,对生态系统服务功能及价值评估模型进行抽象分析.采用直接市场法等新的生态服务功能价值评估方法,选用改进的综合自然植被净第一生产力评估模型作为计算模型,并将评价模型用计算机语言表达,建立了计算机评估程序,设计出基于对象的生态系统服务功能评估流程,最终实现了简便的、可以批量进行生态价值计算的自动评估系统.通过对铜川市城郊区不同植被第一生产力的计算,证明这种计算结果是可靠的,因而该计算机评估方法是可行的.