补偿模糊神经网络在故障树分析中的应用研究

将补偿模糊神经网络用于故障树分析中的研究,建立了故障树顶事件失效模糊概率计算的补偿模糊神经网络模型,给出了应用实例.结果表明,将补偿模糊神经网络用于故障树分析是可行的,其计算更为方便,结果更为精确.     

水泥混凝土路面板底脱空的原因及防治措施

根据水泥混凝土路面破坏情况的调查,分析了混凝土路面产生板底脱空现象的原因及其防治措施,对预防早期破坏,延长水泥混凝土路面的使用寿命具有指导意义.     

实验室制备乙酸乙酯的改进

对现有教学实验中乙酸乙酯教学实验进行改进,用强酸性苯乙烯系阳离子交换树脂作为催化剂催化合成乙酸乙酯.最佳工艺条件为:树脂催化剂用量5g,硫酸1mL,反应温度80℃~90℃,反应时间15min,乙酸:乙醇(1∶1.5);实验全部用时1~2小时,平均产率接近70%,非常适合用于有机化学教学实验中的乙酸乙酯的合成.     

汽车起步颤振动力学问题研究综述

归纳总结了汽车起步颤振动力学问题的研究现状和发展趋势.首先,以整车动力传动系统模型作为问题现象再现的仿真平台,着重论述与起步工况密切相关的部件,包括离合器操纵特性、摩擦特性和发动机瞬态扭矩等.然后,针对汽车起步颤振问题,从试验研究、产生机理、抑制措施3个方面讨论了起步颤振动力学问题研究内容和方法.最后,在已有研究成果及...     

稀浆封层路面层间黏结性能试验研究

为了对稀浆封层层间黏结性能进行评价,自行设计了以改进的剪切仪为基础的试验方法,能较好地模拟路面真实受力情况.试验结果说明,随着温度的升高,稀浆封层与沥青碎石下面层之间黏结强度在减小;不同的路面层间处理措施对黏结强度均有明显的影响;采用较大公称粒径的沥青混合料,或者对路面做凿毛处理均可以有效提高层间黏结强度.     

Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

Forecasting VaR models under Different Volatility Processes and Distributions of Return Innovations

This paper provides clear‐cut evidence that the out‐of‐sample VaR (value‐at‐risk) forecasting performance of alternative parametric volatility models, like EGARCH (exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) or GARCH, and Markov regime‐switching models, can be considerably improved if they are combined with skewed distributions of asset return innovations. The performance of these models is found to be similar to that of the EVT (extreme value theory) approach. The performance of the latter approach can also be improved if asset return innovations are assumed to be skewed distributed. The performance of the Markov regime‐switching model is considerably improved if this model allows for EGARCH effects, for all different volatility regimes considered. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

员工隐私泄漏途径、危害及保护对策

针对员工在应聘、聘用以及解聘后都有可能面临各种隐私泄漏问题,总结目前员工隐私泄露的各种途径,以及隐私泄露对员工和企业所带来的危害,并参考国内外该领域知名学者之前的研究,从四个角度提出员工隐私保护对策.     

基于Bayes近似限法的串联系统置信区间的求解

运用基于Bayes的方法对红外空空导弹进行抗干扰性能评估时,只能分别得到导引头和导弹控制系统的抗干扰概率P<,g>、P<,c>及其置信区间,而难以求出导弹复杂系统的抗干扰概率在一定的置信度下的置信区间.针对该问题,提出用Bayes近似限的方法拟合导弹导引头、控制系统的整个串联系统的抗干扰概率的分布,得出该复杂系统的置信度为y的近似置信区间的求解公式,并给出导弹串联系统数字仿真中抗干扰概率的置信区间的求解实例,对该求解方法的正确性进行了验证.     

浅谈城市轨道交通工程施工中450t提运架设备架梁的应用

文章针对广珠城际轨道交通工程施工中450 t提运架设备箱梁架设施工方法、工艺及技术保证措施展开论述。