Intermittent demand forecasting in the Enterprise: Empirical verification

Forecasting methods are often valued by means of simulation studies. For intermittent demand items there are often very few non–zero observations, so it is hard to check any assumptions, because statistical information is often too weak to determine, for example, distribution of a variable. Therefore, it seems important to verify the forecasting methods on the basis of real data. The main aim of the article is an empirical verification of several forecasting methods applicable in case of intermittent demand. Some items are sold only in specific subperiods (in given month in each year, for example), but most forecasting methods (such as Croston's method) give non–zero forecasts for all periods. For example, summer work clothes should have non–zero forecasts only for summer months and many methods will usually provide non–zero forecasts for all months under consideration. This was the motivation for proposing and testing a new forecasting technique which can be applicable to seasonal items. In the article six methods were applied to construct separate forecasting systems: Croston's, SBA (Syntetos–Boylan Approximation), TSB (Teunter, Syntetos, Babai), MA (Moving Average), SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing) and SESAP (Simple Exponential Smoothing for Analogous subPeriods). The latter method (SESAP) is an author's proposal dedicated for companies facing the problem of seasonal items. By analogous subperiods the same subperiods in each year are understood, for example, the same months in each year. A data set from the real company was used to apply all the above forecasting procedures. That data set contained monthly time series for about nine thousand products. The forecasts accuracy was tested by means of both parametric and non–parametric measures. The scaled mean and the scaled root mean squared error were used to check biasedness and efficiency. Also, the mean absolute scaled error and the shares of best forecasts were estimated. The general conclusion is that in the analyzed company a forecasting system should be based on two forecasting methods: TSB and SESAP, but the latter method should be applied only to seasonal items (products sold only in specific subperiods). It also turned out that Croston's and SBA methods work worse than much simpler methods, such as SES or MA. The presented analysis might be helpful for enterprises facing the problem of forecasting intermittent items (and seasonal intermittent items as well).     

Taming theory with thought experiments: Understanding and scientific progress

I claim that one way thought experiments contribute to scientific progress is by increasing scientific understanding. Understanding does not have a currently accepted characterization in the philosophical literature, but I argue that we already have ways to test for it. For instance, current pedagogical practice often requires that students demonstrate being in either or both of the following two states: 1) Having grasped the meaning of some relevant theory, concept, law or model, 2) Being able to apply that theory, concept, law or model fruitfully to new instances. Three thought experiments are presented which have been important historically in helping us pass these tests, and two others that cause us to fail. Then I use this operationalization of understanding to clarify the relationships between scientific thought experiments, the understanding they produce, and the progress they enable. I conclude that while no specific instance of understanding (thus conceived) is necessary for scientific progress, understanding in general is.     

阿罗不可能性定理和社会选择的无矛盾性问题

2017年2月21日,国际著名数理经济学家、1972年度诺贝尔(Nobel)经济学奖获得者阿罗(K.J.Arrow)于美国辞世。谨作此文,以纪念他在社会选择理论,特别是其中将有关数学应用于研究经济学领域发现的"阿罗不可能性定理"作出的重大贡献。     

基于SHPB试验的高速铁路CRTSⅡ型CA砂浆动态性能

采用分离式霍普金森压杆(Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar,SHPB)试验研究了高速铁路CRTS II型水泥乳化沥青砂浆(CA砂浆)的动态力学性能,并建立了CRTS II型CA砂浆的动态本构关系模型.结果表明:随着应变率的增大,CRTS II型CA砂浆峰值强度逐渐增加,但增加速率随应变率的增大而减小,当应变率从44.17增加至54.79 s-1和从54.79增加至108.47 s-1时,峰值强度分别增加了初始峰值强度的52.28%和7.5%,弹性模量随应变率的变化规律性较差;应变率越大,破坏时的贯通裂纹越多,碎裂程度越大;CRTS II型CA砂浆的比能量吸收随着应变率的增大而增大.所建立的动态本构模型拟合曲线与试验曲线具有较好的一致性.     

《天工开物》中信息型科技术语英译策略对比分析

《天工开物》中以传递科学信息为主的术语是中国古代科技文明的重要载体。文章量化描写和定性分析了85条此类信息型科技术语在其三个英译本中的翻译策略,发现李乔苹译本偏好异化,王义静、王海燕和刘迎春译本倾向于译文流畅的归化,任以都、孙守全译本的策略运用情况则介于二者之间,而这很大程度上取决于不同译者对目标受众的定位差异。文章也借此呼吁中国古代科技术语翻译批评遵循客观描写加解释分析的路径。     

面向指导的自由式英文字母书写跟踪

实现自由式文字书写指导是文字书写智能指导系统的研究趋势.该文面向自由式书写设计与实现英文字母书写跟踪算法,包括建立面向书写指导的大小写英文字母笔画与笔画关系类别,分析笔迹方向、笔画形状,辨析书写过程笔画关系等.实验表明,该系统对用户在规定的四线格式中自由式书写英文字母过程可进行有效跟踪,实时指导,意见客观.     

胰岛素信号通路PI3K／Akt对海马神经元β-淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1mRNA水平的影晌

目的通过胰岛素和磷脂酰肌醇-3激酶（P13K）抑制剂渥曼青霉素（wortmannin）对P13K／丝氨酸苏氨酸蛋白激酶（P13K／Akt）信号通路的激活和抑制作用,观察P13K／Akt信号通路对海马神经元β-淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1（BACEl）mRNA水平表达的影响。方法20只sD大鼠随机分为空白对照组、假手术组、胰岛素组和渥曼青霉素组,海马立体定向注射胰岛素和P13K抑制剂渥曼青霉素。逆转录一聚合酶链反应（RT-PCR）检测P13K／Akt信号传导下游蛋白Akt以及BACEImRNA水平。结果注射胰岛素的海马P13K信号通路下游信号分子：AktmRNA表达上调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．047,P=0．002）,而BACElmRNA表达下调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．004,P=0．01）。渥曼青霉素组的P13K下游信号分子AktmRNA表达明显被抑制（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．002,P=0．039）,同时BACEImRNA的表达较对照组上调（分别较空白和阴性对照组P=0．039,P=0．018）。结论胰岛素信号通路P13K／AM可以调节BACEl的转录水平参与阿尔茨海默病的发病机制。     

基于人眼状态识别的驾驶员疲劳检测方法研究

提出一种基于眼睛状态识别的驾驶员疲劳状态检测的方法。首先通过建立肤色模型分割出人脸区域,再利用搜索连通域的方法实现眼睛区域的定位;然后计算出眼睛区域的垂直积分投影曲线,提取并比较曲线的特征参数,从而识别眼睛的状态;最后以眼睛闭合时间比率为测量标准实现对驾驶员疲劳程度的检测。实验表明,该方法简单、有效、实时性较好,疲劳检测的正确率较高。     

外源性H2S通过调节β-位淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1表达对PC12细胞APP／Aβ代谢的影响

目的观察外源性硫化氢对嗜铬细胞瘤细胞β-位淀粉样前体蛋白裂解酶1（BACE1）的调节作用,进而探讨其对淀粉样前体蛋白／β-位淀粉样蛋白代谢途径的影响。方法用硫氢化钠作外源性H2s供体,实验设空白对照组、NaHs50μmol／L组、NaHS100μmol／L组和NariS200μmol／L组,按分组浓度处理PC12细胞24h后,RT-PCR和Western blot法检测细胞内BACE1 mRNA及蛋白表达,并用Western blot法继而检测APP代谢过程中关键蛋白APP、C99、C83表达变化,EusA法检测细胞培养液中AB40和AB42水平。结果NaHS在实验浓度范围内从基因与蛋白两个水平上呈剂量依赖性下调BACE1表达,并下调C99、Ap40和Ap42蛋白表达,上调C83蛋白,各NaHS组分别与对照组比较,差别均有统计学意义（P〈0．05）,而对APP蛋白表达没有影响,各组间比较差别无显著性（P〉0．05）。结论外源性H2s具有通过调节PC12细胞BACE1表达下调APP／Aβ代谢的作用。     

PP K-MEAN CLUSTERING

In this paper, we propose a dimension-reducing, K-mean clustering procedureby Projection Pursuit (PP) technique so as to explore the clustering structure of data inhigh-dimensional space in terms of low-dimensional projective points of data, and we obtainthe a.s. consistence of the estimates of the cluster centers and projection orientations.