Unobserved components in ARCH models: An application to seasonal adjustment

The paper deals with unobserved components in ARIMA models with GARCH errors, in the context of an actual application, namely seasonal adjustment of the monthly Spanish money supply series. The series shows clear evidence of (moderate) non-linearity, which does not disappear with simple outlier correction. The GARCH structure explains reasonably well the non-linearity, and this explanation is robust with respect to the GARCH specification. We look at the time variation of the standard error of the adjusted series estimator and show how it can be measured. Next, we look at the implications this variation has on short-term monetary control. The non-linearity seems to have a small effect in practice. It is further seen that the conditional variance of the GARCH process may, in turn, be decomposed into components. In fact, the conditional variance of the money supply series is the sum of a weak linear trend, a strong non-linear seasonal component, and a moderate non-linear irregular component. This information has policy implications: for example, there are periods in the year when policy can be more assertive because information is more precise. Finally, looking at the non-linear components of the money supply it is seen how linear combinations of non-linear series can produce series that behave linearly.     

电感耦合等离子发射光谱法测定铅黄铜中常微量元素

研究了用电感耦合等离子发射光谱法(ICP-AES)对铅黄铜合金中多元素分析的基本条件,确定了合适的谱线,采用相邻峰背景扣除法对光谱干扰进行了校正,探讨了酸度对光谱强度的影响,同时测定了各元素的检出限.测定元素的回收率为92%~107%,精密度为0.25%~2.75%.     

半相依回归系统参数的Stein型主成分改进估计

将S tein压缩思想与主成分改进估计相结合,研究两个半相依回归系统.当设计阵呈病态时,提出S tein型主成分改进估计,同时,给出当V未知时的两步估计.证明在均方误差意义下,S tein型主成分改进估计局部优于主成分改进估计和协方差改进估计.     

氮磷加富对山东长岛养殖坛紫菜的生长及营养成分的影响

为探究山东长岛养殖坛紫菜(Pyropia haitanensis)的最适营养盐条件,对不同氮、磷浓度下坛紫菜的生长、光合色素含量、营养成分(粗蛋白、粗脂肪、灰分)和氨基酸组成进行测定分析,并评价其营养价值。结果显示：山东长岛养殖的坛紫菜在氮、磷加富浓度分别为50μmol·L^-1、3.13μmol·L^-1时生长速率最快,叶绿素a、类胡萝卜素、藻红蛋白及藻蓝蛋白含量均显著升高,但在氮、磷浓度分别高于200μmol·L^-1、12.5μmol·L^-1时其生长减缓。坛紫菜对氮、磷的吸收速率受营养盐浓度的显著影响,在氮、磷浓度分别高于200μmol·L^-1、12.5μmol·L^-1时,其对NH⁺₄-N的吸收速率显著高于NO^-₃-N。氮、磷加富培养使坛紫菜营养成分的含量呈显著变化,其中粗蛋白和灰分含量显著增加,而粗脂肪的含量则显著降低;氨基酸总量以及呈味氨基酸占总氨基酸的比值(DAA...     

复方金钱草颗粒的二次开发研究进展

复方金钱草颗粒是由广金钱草、车前草、光石韦、玉米须4味中药材组成的中成药制剂,具有清热利湿、通淋排石的功效,临床广泛用于治疗泌尿系统结石和尿路感染。本文对复方金钱草颗粒的主要成分、质量控制方法、作用机制及临床疗效等方面的研究进行综述,旨在为中成药的深入开发及临床推广应用提供参考。     

Does a lot help a lot? Forecasting stock returns with pooling strategies in a data‐rich environment

A variety of recent studies provide a skeptical view on the predictability of stock returns. Empirical evidence shows that most prediction models suffer from a loss of information, model uncertainty, and structural instability by relying on low‐dimensional information sets. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of various lately refined forecasting strategies, which handle these issues by incorporating information from many potential predictor variables simultaneously. We investigate whether forecasting strategies that (i) combine information and (ii) combine individual forecasts are useful to predict US stock returns, that is, the market excess return, size, value, and the momentum premium. Our results show that methods combining information have remarkable in‐sample predictive ability. However, the out‐of‐sample performance suffers from highly volatile forecast errors. Forecast combinations face a better bias–efficiency trade‐off, yielding a consistently superior forecast performance for the market excess return and the size premium even after the 1970s.     

Forecasting Death Rates Using Exogenous Determinants

Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality‐forecasting models be associated with real‐world trends in health‐related variables? Does inclusion of health‐related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle‐related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

荷叶生物碱的研究进展

概述了荷叶生物碱的化学成分及其减肥、降脂、降血压、抑菌、抗衰老等保健作用以及荷叶生物碱的提取、分离技术的研究进展,为荷叶生物碱的合理开发利用提供参考.     

乌骨藤化学成分和生物活性研究进展

综述了近年来乌骨藤化学成分和生物活性研究方面的进展,主要包括化学成分、生物活性、临床应用概述,并对它的研究和应用前景作了展望。     

投资效益的实证分析

投资效益是反映经济发展的重要指标,由于投资效益的复杂性,需要有一个指标体系来表述,但各指标存在着信息重复,不能综合的问题。利用SPSS统计分析软件进行主成分分析,以影响投资效益的6个因素为指标,找出了投资效益影响因素的主成分,并以上海市1990—2003年投资效益为例进行了实证分析。