The predictability of stock market volatility in emerging economies: Relative roles of local,regional, and global business cycles

This paper explores the role of business cycle proxies, measured by the output gap at the global, regional, and local levels, as potential predictors of stock market volatility in the emerging BRICS nations. We observe that the emerging BRICS nations display a rather heterogeneous pattern when it comes to the relative role of idiosyncratic factors as a predictor of stock market volatility. While domestic output gap is found to capture significant predictive information for India and China particularly, the business cycles associated with emerging economies and the world in general are strongly important for the BRIC countries and weakly for South Africa, especially in the postglobal financial crisis era. The findings suggest that despite the increase in the financial integration of world capital markets, emerging economies can still bear significant exposures to idiosyncratic risk factors, an issue of high importance for the profitability of global diversification strategies.     

A different kind of revolutionary change: transformation from object to process concepts

I propose a new perspective with which to understand scientific revolutions. This is a conversion from an object-only perspective to one that properly treats object and process concepts as distinct kinds. I begin with a re-examination of the Copernican revolution. Recent findings from the history of astronomy suggest that the Copernican revolution was a move from a conceptual framework built around an object concept to one built around a process concept. Drawing from studies in the cognitive sciences, I then show that process concepts are independent of object concepts, grounded in specific regions of the brain and involving unique representational mechanisms. There are cognitive obstacles to the transformation from object to process concepts, and an object bias—a tendency to treat processes as objects—makes this kind of conceptual change difficult. Consequently, transformation from object to process concepts is disruptive and revolutionary. Finally, I explore the implications of this new perspective on scientific revolutions for both the history and philosophy of science.     

鲁南割绒纳绣鞋垫传统制作工艺研究

割绒纳绣鞋垫是我国民间绣花鞋垫中的重要支系与品种.通过采取实地考察、民艺采风、工艺记录与复原等方法,对鲁南割绒纳绣鞋垫材料、工艺以及特殊制作技法进行了深入研究.其中,取材天然、对称切割等是鲁南割绒纳绣鞋垫的典型工艺特色.这些制作技艺体现了农耕社会民间手工艺的主要特征,对于它们的传承除了具有传统工艺保护的意义之外,还对现代设计具有启迪意义.     

钢铁企业轨梁万能生产线仿真建模

针对钢铁企业的轨梁万能生产线在生产中存在的新产品调试生产周期过长、生产瓶颈不易诊断、设备利用率低等问题,分析了钢铁企业轨梁万能生产线不同于传统离散制造以及流程制造过程的特点,在此基础上建立了半连续半离散的轨梁万能生产线的Petri网模型和各设备的仿真组件模型,开发了轨梁万能生产线的仿真系统,并用一个实际的工程应用案例,验证了该仿真模型及其系统的可操作性以及有效性,达到了提高生产现场轨梁万能生产线的生产效率和产能的目的.     

基于模糊层次分析法的既有住宅性能综合评价

以综合改建为目的,将既有住宅性能分为安全性、完好性、适用性、节能性、环境性和协调性等6类指标.运用模糊数学方法对层次分析法进行改进,确定各指标的权重,构建既有住宅性能综合评价模型.克服了传统评价方法的主观随意性,全面考虑各类指标的相互影响关系,改善评判过程中的不确定性.通过评价30个不同的案例,验证该评价模型具有综合性、客观性和可操作性的优点.通过案例讨论,提出各类住宅性能改建的实施方法.     

数字经济中基于察觉-动机-能力模型的创新扩散机制

数字经济时代下,创新扩散的模式和机制正随着经济环境的变化发生重大变化.鉴于此,本文对数字经济中的创新归纳出信息数字化、组织网络化、用户参与化等特征,基于察觉-动机-能力分析模型对创新的扩散机制进行过程建模,并基于多智能体仿真分析创新扩散.仿真结果表明,随着信息数字化的发展,创新扩散的网络分布不均匀性增加,引起信息资源高...     

基于过程模型的分布式工作流引擎的研究

通过CORBA规范,按照过程模型的特点,提出一种基于过程模型的分布式工作流引擎的协同运行机制,可以解决集中式工作流引擎控制结构的运行瓶颈,最后给出了一个银行贷款过程的实例。     

服务驱动的制造网格系统

就服务在制造网格系统的应用层面上的行为特性展开研究,提出基于工艺信息的制造网格服务的静态结构和动态过程,分析了制造网格服务的服务请求与响应过程,以及制造网格服务的分裂和衍生过程,设计了相应的制造网格服务结构演算算子,并就制造网格系统服务响应流程与企业的实际业务处理之间的集成进行了描绘和实例说明.     

三标度改进方法及其在火炮采购方案评价中的应用

为解决火炮采购方案评价中面临的多目标决策问题,以及弥补层次分析法(AHP)、效用理论、三标度法(TMP)和非结构模糊决策方法(NSFDM)在解决此类问题上的某些局限性,提出了三标度改进方法(TMEP).在论述了该方法的决策过程和步骤后,以某部队火炮采购为例,着重分析了TMEP方法在火炮采购方案评价中的应用.其分析结果表明:相对于AHP、TMP和NSFDM方法,TMEP方法在构建判断矩阵时层次更加清晰,也更易于通过一致性检验,且矩阵元素权重确定更加简洁和合理,同时计算量相对也比较小.因此,该方法是解决火炮采购方案评价和类似的多目标决策问题的一种有效方法.     

What’s so special about model organisms?

This paper aims to identify the key characteristics of model organisms that make them a specific type of model within the contemporary life sciences: in particular, we argue that the term “model organism” does not apply to all organisms used for the purposes of experimental research. We explore the differences between experimental and model organisms in terms of their material and epistemic features, and argue that it is essential to distinguish between their representational scope and representational target. We also examine the characteristics of the communities who use these two types of models, including their research goals, disciplinary affiliations, and preferred practices to show how these have contributed to the conceptualization of a model organism. We conclude that model organisms are a specific subgroup of organisms that have been standardized to fit an integrative and comparative mode of research, and that it must be clearly distinguished from the broader class of experimental organisms. In addition, we argue that model organisms are the key components of a unique and distinctively biological way of doing research using models.