分散型可再生能源技术扩散中的收入效应研究

阻碍分散型可再生能源技术扩散的重要因素是其较高的采用成本,而随着居民收入水平的逐步增加,对这种新能 源技术的采用行为也越来越普遍.基于元胞自动机技术,考虑到绝对收入水平和相对收入水平对居民采用行为的影响 机制,将元胞划分为潜在者、等待者和采用者三种状态并定义了相互间的转化概率,建立了收入影响下的分散型可再 生能源技术扩散模型.通过与太阳能热水器扩散数据的对比证明了模型的合理性,仿真分析表明,相对收入系数与等待元 胞转化概率成反比,与采用元胞转化概率成正比,潜在者相对收入系数变动的边际贡献小于等待者;此外,研究还发 现采用示范效应和收入敏感度是在特定收入范围内而非收入最大值区域是最优的,初始采用元胞收入水平高低对 扩散进程没有显著的促进作用.这些结论对可再生能源技术推广和企业市场营销决策都有着积极的借鉴意义.     

能力本位 理实一体 探索维修电工教学效果新突破

在明确课程目标的前提下,阐述了在课程教学中如何体现能力本位、如何通过采取理实一体化的教学方法,来实现维修电工课程在培养学生技能、素质、心理等方面的新突破。     

Correcting the January optimism effect

Each month, various professional forecasters give forecasts for next year's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and unemployment. January is a special month, when the forecast horizon moves to the following calendar year. Instead of deleting the January data when analyzing forecast updates, I propose a periodic version of a test regression for weak-form efficiency. An application of this periodic model for many forecasts across a range of countries shows that in January GDP forecast updates are positive, whereas the forecast updates for unemployment are negative. I document that this January optimism about the new calendar year is detrimental to forecast accuracy. To empirically analyze Okun's law, I also propose a periodic test regression, and its application provides more support for this law.     

村民自治实践的历程及成效

村民自治是我国农村基层直接民主的制度创新。上世纪80年代初,随着农村家庭联产承包责任制的推行和人民公社的解体,村民委员会作为村民自主管理、自我服务的社区组织逐渐建立起来。村民自治经过20多年的实践,大体经历三个发展阶段,取得了一定成效。     

能量存储:基于全新原理的“纳米弹簧”

许多机械装置如钟表、玩具等都采用弹簧来驱动,其能量的存储与释放是通过弹簧内部原子间距的变化来实现的。但是这种原子间距的变化(即弹性变形)所能存储的体能量密度相对很低,如何提高能量的转换效率以及材料存储的能量密度是当前材料科学理论和实验研究共同关注的一个问题。本研究利用金属钨单晶纳米线在加载时独特的孪晶变形行为,提出了一个可以在纳米尺度下高效存储与释放机械能的新原理,并据此设计了相应的纳米装置——纳米弹簧。与块体弹簧不同,本文提出的纳米弹簧通过表面原子的重构来实现能量的存储与释放。进一步的计算还表明,由于金属钨孪晶界面的移动阻力非常小,金属钨纳米弹簧的能量转换效率可以达到98%;同时该纳米弹簧存储的体能量密度可以超过钟表发条的1600倍,并具有30%的应变以及3GPa的驱动应力。     

Cladocera and Copepoda of Shokalsky Island: new data from northwest Siberia

Information on the freshwater fauna of the remote Arctic territories is very patchy, and most of the isolated islands of the Arctic Ocean remain absolutely unexplored. The pioneer data on the species composition of microcrustaceans of Shokalsky Island (northwest Siberia, Russia) is reported here. The initial three-year research revealed a total of 31 new for the area species of Cladocera and Copepoda, including new records for the whole of northwestern Siberia. Comparing the interannual differences in faunal composition, we suggested the hypothesis of the existence of a cryptic pool of species’ resting stages, which can invade the community in the event of favourable environmental conditions in the Arctic freshwaters. We also compiled all the available data from different parts of northern Siberia and compared them with the fauna of Shokalsky Island to analyse the connection between the diversity and distributional patterns of copepods and cladoceran species and the climate conditions of different territories.     

Patterns of artificial avian nest predation by introduced rats in a fragmented laurel forest (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

The importance of introduced rats as damaging factors on island biotas is globally recognized. The predation of artificial avian nests by Ship rats (Rattus rattus) in fragmented laurel forests in Tenerife (Canary Islands) was explored. The influence of road edge, patch type, and position (ground versus tree) on nest survival in two forest remnants differing in conservation degree, were assessed using failure‐time analysis. Overall, nest predation was greater in the preserved than in the disturbed remnant. Nest predation also differed among and within patches, variation being greater within the disturbed remnant. The probability of nest failure was higher at the interior than along the road edge in both remnants, but the road edge effect on nest predation was more intense in the disturbed remnant. Predation pressure was higher in patches of mature, closed canopy or dense understorey with stump sprouting. Ground nests were predated at higher rates than tree nests at any location. These results contrast with other nest predation studies in fragmented landscapes where forest edges rather than the interior are more frequently used by predators. Predatory activity by rats seems negatively affected by forest disturbance and road edge effect. Overall, artificial nest predation patterns by rats confirm a potential predation risk for the avifauna of the Canarian laurel forest. This should be considered in implementing conservation management programmes.     

基于无条件分位回归的民营上市公司高管薪酬问题研究

高级管理人员的薪酬作为现代企业委托代理关系中的核心问题一直是社会的焦点.本文以我国民营上市公司为样本,首先研究了公司规模、每股收益、营业收入、流动负债和高管持股比例作用于高管薪酬不同分位点处的条件分位偏效应,结果表明它们在不同分位水平下的影响各异;然后为了获得这些因素的一般边际影响,利用无条件分位回归分析了它们的无条件分位偏效应,结果指出公司规模、每股收益和营业收入与各个分位水平的高管薪酬呈不同程度的正相关而流动负债则为负相关,高管持股比例与低分位水平的高管薪酬正相关而对中高分位水平的影响不显著;最后对相关结果进行了对比,发现每个影响因素的条件和无条件分位偏效应有所区别,并且无条件分位偏效应的解释意义更具有现实价值.     

原位观察电子束辐照下双壁碳纳米管的不稳定性

室温下利用高分辨透射电子显微镜原位观察了两端固定和一端固定、另一端自由的双壁碳纳米管在电子束辐照下的结构不稳定性.实验发现,在相同辐照条件下,两端固定的双壁碳纳米管首先径向持续均匀收缩,然后局部颈缩,最后在颈缩处断裂;一端固定、另一端自由的双壁碳纳米管轴向长度持续快速缩小,而径向收缩相对缓慢.我们利用最近提出的表面纳米曲率效应和能量束诱导非热激活效应基础上新发展的碳原子"融蒸"和"扩散"机制,对上述电子束辐照下双壁碳纳米管结构不稳定现象进行了全新、合理的解释.     

采空区上覆岩层诱发矿震及预测技术研究

基于大面积采空区垮落灾害案倒及文献资料,探讨了近年来出现的一种特殊矿山煤岩动力灾害现象：采空区顶板火面积垮落诱发矿震与气体动力灾害。论证了矿震发生前期的动力演变与时空尺度。应用能量转换与守恒理论,详尽地揭示了采空区矿震表征及动力灾害构成要素的时空关联尺度。针对矿震的发展及形成过程提出将声发射监测技术作为矿震预报的基础,并提出运用线定位法和任意平面三角形定位法对震源定位的基本原理。