Method for Risky Multiobjective Group Decision-Making and Its Application

The multiobjective group decision-making problem under risk is common in reality. This paper focuses on the study about risky multiobjective group decision-making problem where the index value is not certain. We give indexes classifying method and index normalizing formula of this type problem. By building objective function that minimizes general weighted distance from every alternative to the relatively best and worst alternative, the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative can be obtained, and by building another objective function that minimizes general weighted distance from the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative to the group optimal alternative and the group inferior alternative, the optimal membership degree of every decision-maker to every alternative can be obtained, which are both based on probability theory and fuzzy theory. Aftermost a model is established which collects group preferences. This method provides a new idea and     

Multi-attribute decision making method for air target threat evaluation based on intuitionistic fuzzy sets

The function of the air target threat evaluation (TE) is the foundation for weapons allocation and senor resources management within the surface air defense. The multi-attribute evaluation methodology is utilized to address the issue of the TE in which the tactic features of the detected target are treated as evaluation attributes. Meanwhile, the intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) is employed to deal with information uncertainty in the TE process. Furthermore, on the basis of the entropy weight and inclusion-comparison probability, a hybrid TE method is developed. In order to accommodate the demands of naturalistic decision making, the proposed method allows air defense commanders to express their intuitive opinions besides incorporating into the threat features of the detected target. An illustrative example is provided to indicate the feasibility and advantage of the proposed method.     

THE TRANSITION PROBABILITY MATRIX OF A MARKOV CHAIN MODEL IN AN ATM NETWORK

In this paper we consider a Markov chain model in an ATM network, which has been studied by Dag and Stavrakakis. On the basis of the iterative formulas obtained by Dag and Stavrakakis, we obtain the explicit analytical expression of the transition probability matrix. It is very simple to calculate the transition probabilities of the Markov chain by these expressions. In addition, we obtain some results about the structure of the transition probability matrix, which are helpful in numerical calculation and theoretical analysis.     

基于MCMC的模糊自适应重要抽样法

针对传统的基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗 (Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)的自适应重要抽样法只适用于失效边界确定的系统,而不适用于失效域模糊的渐变结构系统问题,提出基于MCMC的模糊自适应重要抽样法。首先从模糊失效域内的某个初始点出发,根据Metropolis准则构造马尔可夫模拟样本点;然后利用自适应核密度估计构建核抽样概率密度函数并进行重要抽样;最后离散化模糊失效域以计算系统的模糊失效概率。该方法合理地解决了以往渐变结构系统性能可靠性难以仿真分析及仿真效率低的难题,具有较高的仿真效率和精度。应用舵机案例对方法的适用性及高效性进行了验证。     

基于UT变换的MMPHD机动目标跟踪

基于序列蒙特卡罗方法的多模概率假设密度(probability hypothesis density, PHD)滤波算法及其改进方法,在预测过程中依据多个并行的状态转移模型将大量粒子散布到下一时刻目标所有可能出现的状态空间,从而实现目标状态的捕获。由于这些方法大量使用粒子,造成计算量巨大、算法实时性差。为此,提出了基于无迹变换的多模PHD机动目标跟踪方法。该方法利用最新量测信息获得粒子预测过程中的建议密度函数,从而将粒子聚合在目标最可能出现的状态空间邻域中,充分实现粒子的有效利用。仿真实验表明,论文提出的算法不仅显著减少了多模PHD算法的计算量,而且在一定程度上提高了多模PHD算法的精度。     

基于概率模式识别方法的宏观经济预警系统的进一步研究

对用概率模式识别技术设计宏观经济预警系统的方法进行了进一步的研究, 并且分析了采用这种方法的优点．在文章的结尾, 作者给出应用该技术进行宏观经济预警的两个实例     

基于模糊随机概率的电子产品寿命分析方法

电子产品失效过程是一种兼有随机性和模糊性的模糊随机现象,电子产品的寿命应为一个模糊随机变量。应用模糊随机概率的相关理论,对传统随机概率寿命分析进行改进,建立了一种模糊随机概率寿命分布函数,并且根据寿命的特点提出了选择模糊变量隶属函数的标准。在此基础上,研究了产品失效的可能性分布,以确定产品在某一时刻可能失效的可能性大小。通过实例分析对比,新的寿命分布函数能够反映出更多的寿命信息,且表达更为直观具体,所建立的可能性分布能够真实地反映实际产品失效的可能性大小。     

保险公司破产概率的估计及随机模拟

研究人寿保险的破产模型 ,其中保单到达和索赔发生时刻为相互独立的 Poisson流 ,索赔额服从指数分布 .针对此模型给出了 t时刻之前破产概率的一个上界估计 ,并给出了破产概率的随机模拟计算流程和一个具体例子的数值模拟结果.     

主动雷达型空空导弹最优末制导律工程研究

构造了拦截加速机动目标的空空导弹末制导状态模型。提出了脱靶量和横向加速度综合最小的导引指标,并用线性二次型的形式求解了最优导引律。从工程应用的角度出发,设计了能用于主动雷达制导弹的次优末制导律。大量的仿真试验表明,该导引律的性能好于比例导引律平均脱靶量小20.3%,所用横向加速度小28.1%,成功拦截率大13%。     

基于DVENET的虚拟炮瞄雷达的研究与实现

在分析炮瞄雷达的物理特性和ＤＩＳ协议提供的相关支持的基础上,对ＤＩＳ协议进行了扩充,同时建立了炮瞄雷达仿真所需的相关数学模型,并针对分布式系统下存在的雷达数据一致性问题提出了一种解决方法。