Will boreal winter precipitation over China increase in the future? An AGCM simulation under summer “ice-free Arctic” conditions

Frequent winter snowstorms have recently caused large economic losses and attracted wide attention.These snowstorms have raised an important scientific question.Under scenarios of future global warming,will winter precipitation in China increase significantly and produce more snow in the north? Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP 3) model projections under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A1B scenario,we generated a possible future Arctic condition,the summer (September) "ice-free Arctic" condition.We then used corresponding monthly sea surface temperature (SST) values and a set of CO 2 concentrations to drive an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM),for simulating East Asian climate change.The experimental results show that during the boreal winter (December-January-February;DJF),global surface air temperature would increase significantly under this scenario,producing substantial warming in Arctic regions and at high latitudes in Asia and North America.The Siberian High,Aleutian Low and East Asian winter monsoon would all weaken.However,because of increased transport of water vapor to China from the north,winter precipitation would increase from south to north.In addition,the significant increase in winter temperature might cause fewer cold surges.     

Pricing Formulae of Asian Options under the Fractional Brownian Motion

In this paper,the pricing formulae of the geometric average Asian call option with the fixed and floating strike price under the fractional Brownian motion(FBM)are given out by the method of partial differential equation(PDE).The call-put parity for the geometric average Asian options is given.The results are generalization of option pricing under standard Brownian motion.     

论中亚国家"颜色革命"的原因及对我国的启示——从文化与意识形态安全的视角分析

中亚国家"颜色革命"的原因极其复杂,而中亚国家长期以来忽视文化和意识形态安全的维护是"颜色革命"发生的重要因素。当前世界各国对于文化安全和意识形态安全特别重视,我们应认真借鉴中亚"颜色革命"的教训,加强文化和意识形态建设。     

随机波动率模型下几何平均亚式期权的定价

假设股票价格波动率服从对数正态分布,在此随机波动率模型下,利用等价鞅测度变换,得到了最小等价鞅测度下固定执行价格的几何平均亚式期权定价公式,并讨论了其近似解的求法.