Lag influences of winter circulation conditions in the tropical western Pacific on South Asian summer monsoon

<正>By means of monthly mean NCEP/NCAR data analyses, this note investigates the lag influences of winter circulation conditions in the tropical western Pacific on South Asian summer monsoon through the methods of composite, correlation and statistical confident test. The results indicate clearly that winter climate variations in the equatorial western Pacific would produce significant influences on the following South Asian summer monsoon, and with the lapse of time the lag influences show clearly moving northward and extending westward features. When winter positive (negative) sea level pressure anomalies occupy the equatorial western Pacific, there is an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly appearing in the northwestern Pacific. With the lapse of time, the anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly gradually moves to northeast, and its axis in the west-east directions also stretches, therefore, easterly (westerly) anomalies in the south part of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly continuously expand westward to the peninsula of India. Undoubtedly, the South Asian summer monsoon is weak (strong).     

文化与民主:“亚洲式民主”的再探讨

通过对东亚的主要传统文化和现代文化的社会政治功效的评估 ,论证了文化在“亚洲式民主”的形成和发展中的作用。根据新儒家的思想提出了构建一种亚洲式民主文化的设想。对文化在东亚各国现实的权力运作中的作用进行了分析 ,在此基础上 ,对“亚洲式民主”的主要的体制特征和西方民主的根本性的异同进行了比较 ,从而为“亚洲式民主”设定了框架     

基于线性同余算法的格点方法在亚式期权定价中的应用

在拟蒙特卡罗方法中,低偏差序列性能的好坏直接决定拟蒙特卡罗估计的有效性,一般常用的拟蒙特卡罗估计使用的是基于（t,m,s）网的低偏序列,然而由这种方法产生的低偏序列在高维时有严重的聚丛现象,对高维时的估计精度有较大影响.使用基于线性同余算法的格点方法估计高维亚式期权的价格,比较了两种方法的计算精度和计算时间,表明格点方法在高维有很好的效果.     

算术亚式期权价格的敏感性参数估计

算术亚式期权很难从数值上对其精确地定价,因此期权价格的敏感性参数估计对于算术亚式期权的套期保值就显得颇为重要.本文主要介绍2种计算敏感性参数的方法,即顺向法与似然率法,并推导了算术亚式期权的敏感性参数△、ρ和υ,的计算公式,通过MATLAB编程模拟证明了公式的正确性,最后对两种方法进行了比较并得出一些结论.     

Orbital- and millennial-scale variability of the Asian monsoon during MIS8 from Sanbao Cave at Mount Shennongjia,central China

One stalagmite oxygen isotope record from Sanbao Cave, China, established with 7 230Th ages and 355 oxygen isotope data, pro- vides a continuous history of the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) intensity for the period from 284 to 240 thousand years before present (ka BP) with typical errors of 3―4 ka. This new record extends the previously published stalagmite δ18O record back to the marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 8. The MIS8 EAM record broadly follows orbitally-induced insolation variations and is punctuated by...     

南亚留学生班主任工作之管见

我国丰富的教育资源和低廉的教育费用正在吸引越来越多的南亚留学生来华学习,班主任在加强留学生教育和管理方面具有重要作用,同时,留学生教育事业的发展给班主任工作提出了许多新的要求。     

锶同位素研究在古季风演化研究中的应用研究

自从Rb—Sr同位素体系被应用于地质年龄以来，随着Rb—Sr同位素地球化学理论和测试分析技术的逐步发展和完善，其应用越来越广泛。主要介绍了锶同位素的基本地球化学特征，分析了锶同位素研究进行全球对比的可能性，探讨了锶同位素研究在我国黄土季风演化研究中的应用。众多研究显示Rb／Sr和^87Sr／^86Sr的比值变化受控于风化成壤作用的强弱，与降雨量、磁化率变化有很好的线性相关关系。通过曲线的分析、对比发现Rb／Sr和^87Sr／^86Sr曲线所蕴含的气候信息比磁化率曲线更为丰富和详细，与SPECMAP δ^18O曲线具有同步变化特征和更好的对应关系。这些研究表明Rb／Sr和^87Sr／^86Sr比值极可能是一种东亚夏季风演化更为灵敏的替代性指标，在古气候重建中有着广阔的应用前景。     

Effects of autumn-winter Arctic sea ice on winter Siberian High

The intensity of the winter Siberian High has significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from the previous autumn to winter seasons in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas. Our results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia. Numerical experiments also support this conclusion, and consistently show that the low sea ice concentration causes negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia. A mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High. Our results also show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted using only tropical sea surface temperatures. In the last two decades (1990–2009), a strengthening trend of winter Siberian High along with a decline trend in surface air temperature in the mid-high latitudes of the Asian Continent have favored the recent frequent cold winters over East Asia. The reason for these short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed.     

第26届亚锦赛中国男篮与对手攻防能力比较研究

采用文献资料、录像观察、数理统计以及对比分析等方法,对第26届亚锦赛中国男篮及其对手整体攻、防能力进行比较研究,分析中国男篮的优势与不足.统计结果表明：中国队攻防整体性较好,各位置效率较均衡,易建联成为新的核心内线;存在不足是面对强队,投篮失准,失误偏多,外线防守不积极,抢断意识较差,移动慢,防守预见性差,犯规目的不明确.在此基础上,结合中国男篮所有比赛的技术统计,对中国男篮在本届亚锦赛上的得失进行了理性思考,以期为我国男篮今后的科学训练提供参考.     

次分数跳-扩散过程下亚式期权定价模型的数值解

在次分数Ho-Lee随机利率模型下,利用Δ对冲原理,建立了次分数跳-扩散过程下,带有交易费和红利支付的几何平均亚式期权定价的偏微分方程模型;通过变量代换将定价模型化为Cauchy问题;利用有限差分法和复合梯形法给出了定价模型的数值解,并通过一个算例检验了算法设计的有效性.