中、韩男篮比赛技术分析

采用文献资料法、数理统计法、比较分析法等方法，对中国男篮在第14届亚运会和第22届亚锦赛中同韩国男篮的两场决赛成败的原因进行了统计分析．研究结果表明，中国队在进攻和防守能力方面有明显增强，但在技、战术和心理素质方面有待进一步提高．     

儒学与社会结构:东亚社会中的汉族与多民族社会中的汉族——人类学学者访谈录之八

同受儒家传统文化影响的东亚社会 ,在社会结构上有很大的不同。不同的社会对于儒学的取舍和吸收的重点不尽相同 ,日本突出的是集团的概念 ,而中国更为突出家族主义 ,在多元一体格局中 ,汉族是凝聚的核心。西方很多社会人类学的理论未必一定适合东亚社会 ,与同质化、一体化、一元化相比 ,人类学更强调地方化、本土化、异质化     

世、亚行贷款项目机构能力建设研究

世、亚行贷款不仅给我国经济和社会发展提供了资金支持,而且其贷款项目机构能力建设的实施推动了我国企业的制度创新和技术创新,提升了政府管理理念创新和治理能力,促进了项目管理制度化和规范化。世行贷款河北城市环境项目及亚行贷款河北海滦河流域污染防治项目的成功实施就是例证。     

The influence of moderate ENSO on summer rainfall in eastern China and its comparison with strong ENSO

The 6 major ENSO events since 1979 are classified into the strong and moderate ENSO based on intensity. The composite analysis is performed to reveal the influence of ENSO on East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and summer rainfall in eastern China. It is shown that the influence is changed with the seasonal cycle in summer, with a weaker influence in June and a stronger influence in August, indicating a long lagged effect of ENSO on EASM. Besides, the circulation and rainfall anomalies caused by the strong ENSO are also stronger with an earlier starting time, while the influence of the moderate ENSO is evident in August. The composite summer rainfall in eastern China for the moderate ENSO exhibits a northern rainfall pattern, which is totally different from the classical ENSO-type rainfall pattern. Based on the composite analysis, two moderate ENSO years with a similar intensity （i.e., 1995 and 2003） are compared. The result shows that, the response of EASM to the moderate ENSO during June and July is, to a certain degree, modulated by the circulation systems in mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and in the Southern Hemisphere, thereby inducing a different rainfall distribution in eastern China. In comparison with the strong ENSO in 1983, it is further revealed that, the strong ENSO plays a dominant role in summer rainfall anomalies in eastern China as well as in controlling the influence of the other factors on EASM. The strong ENSO is therefore different with the moderate ENSO.     

晚新生代塔里木盆地中西部地区磁性地层与环境演化

报道了塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔格山剖面的磁性地层和古环境记录的研究结果.结果表明:塔里木海湾消亡、副特提斯海最终退出塔里木盆地发生在4.2 Ma以前;3.4 Ma塔里木盆地首次出现大型流动沙丘,塔克拉玛干沙漠开始形成;2.6 Ma塔里木盆地干旱化程度进一步加剧,沙漠的规模进一步扩大,形成了当今极度干旱的大型沙漠环境.     

随机利率下一种改进的几何型重置期权定价

通过将有效期内股价的几何平均值作为期权结算价格,创建了一种改进的几何型重置期权模型,当利率随机时,利用等价鞅方法,推导了该期权模型在OrnsteinUhlenback过程下的定价公式.     

Changes in South Asian monsoon: New high-resolution paleoclimatic records from Tibet, China

High-resolution pollen records from 6 small lakes in the Tibetan Plateau provided the details of evolution of South Asian monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum. Prior to 16 kaBP, the region was a desert-steppe characterized by cold and dry climates, the January temperature was 7 -10℃lower than that of present and the annual precipitation only accounted for 40% of the present. The temperature and precipitation increased gradually and trees began to live in the region after 12 kaBP, but during the interval from 9.2 to 6.3 kaBP, forest and forest-meadow appeared occasionally. From 8 to 5 kaBP, both January and July temperature was 2-3℃ higher and annual precipitation was also about 200 mm higher than that of the present. After 5 kaBP, temperature and precipitation decreased linearly and steppe vegetation began to degenerate.     

试论东亚一体化进程中文化认同的建构

探讨了在当前东亚区域化进程加快的时代背景下,东亚一体化进程中文化认同的建构问题。指出,未来的东亚共同文化构建应立足于丰厚的东亚本土历史资源,具备时代性的全球视野,并充分尊重东亚各国本土文化间的差异,通过沟通与对话取得共识,以降低文化差异性在构建东亚共同文化方面的负面效应,更好地培育东亚文化共同认知,构建东亚共同文化。     

标的资产的对数收益非正态时的亚式期权的定价

在标的资产的对数收益非正态的情况下,本文通过时间序列的动态结构推导出股票对数收益的Edgeworth展开,由此推导几何平均亚式期权值,并看出对数收益过程的非高斯性及相依性对期权定价的影响。     

全新世东亚季风变化的百年尺度周期

对位于东海内陆架闽浙沿岸泥质沉积区中部的PC-6孔进行了AMS14C年龄测试和粒度分析,综合该孔的岩性、颜色、沉积构造以及沉积物垂向上的叠加方式等特征,将该孔以450cm和540cm为界分为3段,其中上段(450cm以上)以灰褐色、灰色粘土质粉砂为主,岩性较均一,测年表明其形成于近7.64ka以来,此期间海平面变化只有约3￣4m,对应的沉积动力条件与沉积环境应该与现今基本一致,为海侵结束后高海平面以来主要受沿岸流控制的浅海沉积。通过计算PC-6孔450cm以上225个样品陆源碎屑组分中每个粒级组分标准偏差随粒级组分的变化,分离出对沉积环境敏感的粒级约为6μm和56μm,2个粒度组分的分界线约在28μm。细粒组分(<28μm)为东海冬季沿岸流携带悬浮体所沉积,而>28μm粗粒组分对应的沉积动力条件为波浪。本文采用28μm以下的细粒级组分的平均粒径作为替代指标,来揭示东亚冬季风的变化周期。使用功率谱分析软件REDFIT35对<28μm组分的平均粒径进行分析,PC-6孔揭示出70￣72、78、89、102、112、123、154a等百年尺度的强周期信号。与世界其它地区进行综合对比分析表明,全新世东亚季风的变化在百年尺度以Gleissberg周期和约70a的周期为主,且它们都是太阳辐射变化的结果。