川南地区阳新统气藏异常高压形成转化和预测、

本文基于自然流体压裂成藏机理和岩体力学,紧密结合川南阳新统气截基本特征,探讨异常高压形成和转化机理,进而建立定量预测气层异常高压物理一数学镬型.经矿场实际资并验证,气层压力预测值绝对误差一般小于2.0MPa,相对误差一般小于5.0%.     

采掘生产系统预测模型及其应用

在对灰色预测和马尔柯夫矩阵预测分析的基础上,将二者有机集成形成一种新的预测方法———灰色马尔柯夫预测,可用于矿井产量、进尺等具有某种变化趋势而随机波动性较大的预测问题。     

非营利性科研机构绩效评价指标体系研究

论述了非营利性科研机构绩效评价的指标筛选依据、结构逻辑关系及含义,给出所建立的评价指标体系,最后用实例说明所建评价指标体系的实用性.     

基于复合金字塔模型的蛋白质二级结构预测系统

利用预测系统方法, 对蛋白质二级结构预测提出了一种逐步求精、多层递阶的预测系统模型, 即复合金字塔模型. 这种模型由4个独立协同的层面组成, 通过智能接口有机融合了SAC, AAC, KDD*等源于KDTICM理论的模型和方法. 模型整体贯穿物化属性与结构序列, 采用因果细胞自动机选择有效物化属性, 构造纯度较高的结构数据库作为训练数据源, 利用领域知识与背景知识进行优化. 本模型在数据集RS126及CB513分别取得83.06%与80.49%的Q₃准确度, 在对偏α/β型蛋白质的预测实验中, 取得了93.12%的Q₃准确度, 并存在着进一步提高准确度的优化空间.     

Asymptotic prediction of mean squared error for long-memory processes with estimated parameters

In this paper we deal with the prediction theory of long-memory time series. The purpose is to derive a general theory of the convergence of moments of the nonlinear least squares estimator so as to evaluate the asymptotic prediction mean squared error (PMSE). The asymptotic PMSE of two predictors is evaluated. The first is defined by the estimator of the differencing parameter, while the second is defined by a fixed differencing parameter: in other words, a parametric predictor of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. The effects of misspecifying the differencing parameter is a long-memory model are clarified by the asymptotic results relating to the PMSE. The finite sample behaviour of the predictor and the model selection in terms of PMSE of the two predictors are examined using simulation, and the source of any differences in behaviour made clear in terms of asymptotic theory. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

区块堵水方案最优化设计研究

用油藏模拟器对堵水后的生产情况进行了预测,在此基础上建立了区块堵水方案优化设计的数学模型,该模型适用于中小型油田堵水方案的优化设计,可以方便地确定出在整个区块上需要进行堵水的注水井和层位,使堵水后的经济效益达到最好。优化设计数学模型在埕东油田获得了成功的应用。     

Can animals predict earthquakes?: Bio-sentinels as seismic sensors in communist China and beyond

This paper examines the international research on abnormal animal behavior prior to earthquakes, with a focus on Chinese seismology during the Cultural Revolution. China experienced a series of powerful earthquakes in the 1960s and 1970s; in response, its scientists developed approaches to earthquake prediction, including the use of bio-sentinels. The paper demonstrates that Chinese seismology did not treat an earthquake simply as a geophysical event, but rather as an amalgam of environmental phenomena, including sensory experiences. Hence, distributive experience and sensory networks of humans and bio-sentinels constituted an important component of studying the environment. This historical case suggests insights into bio-monitoring of the global environment.     

基于修正残差的协同预测模型边坡失稳预测应用

斜坡的协同预报模型是一种新的斜坡失稳时间预测模型。通过改变边界条件的灰色预测模型对残差进行了分阶处理,使原有协同预测模型的精度和预测准确性更高。并结合实例检验了改进的预测模型用于滑坡短期预报的有效性、可行性。     

我国专利的现状及对策

对我国的专利现状,包括已经取得的成就和反映出的问题进行了分析,并在此基础上提出了在科技创新中如何提高我国专利创造、运用和经营能力的政策建议。     

Evaluation of the predictive performance of biased regression estimators

Regression models are widely used in forecasting, either directly as prediction equations, or indirectly as the basis of other procedures. The predictive performance of a regression model can be adversely affected by both multicollinearity and high-leverage data points. Although biased estimation procedures have been proposed as an alternative to least squares, there has been little analysis of the predictive performance of the resulting equations. This paper discusses the predictive performance of various biased estimators, emphasizing the concept that the predictive region, as well as the strength of the multicollinearity, dictates the choice of appropriate coefficient estimators.