无标度网络拓扑结构非均匀性研究

利用网络结构熵定量分析了无标度网络拓扑结构的非均匀性.通过引入度秩函数,解析地给出了无标度网络的网络结构熵.研究发现当标度指数大于2时,无标度网络的网络结构熵仅与标度指数有关,与网络规模及最小度无关.在给定网络规模及最小度条件下,无标度网络的网络结构熵在标度指数等于1.7附近取最小值,即此时网络最不均匀,当标度指数大于1.7时,无标度网络的网络结构熵随标度指数单调递增.     

单向单交叉并行链优先约束的可靠性系统测试优化

针对具有单向单交叉并行链优先约束的可靠性系统的最优测试序列问题,提出了一种最优测试原则,该测试原则的约束条件更接近复杂的实际情况。通过证明三个相关的定理,分别解决了单向单交叉并行链优先约束的问题转化形式,相交单元在最优测试序列中测试的先后顺序,以及反“Y”形优先约束问题的最优测试序列。利用这一测试原则,可使此类系统获得总期望测试成本最小。通过一系列证明,给出了该原则的求证过程及具体步骤。     

一种混合建模方法在陀螺漂移预测中的应用研究

陀螺仪作为惯性导航系统的核心惯性器件,其漂移性能直接影响导航的精确性,分析陀螺漂移的变化趋势并预测由漂移所引发的陀螺故障具有重要的意义。提出一种基于灰色理论和平稳时间序列分析的混合建模方法,并将其用于预测陀螺漂移。实验结果表明该混合建模预测方法能够精确地预测陀螺的漂移,从而为陀螺的性能分析和故障预报提供依据。同时与单一预测方法相比,该混合方法具有较强的预测能力。     

ARMA供应链模型研究

在基于ARMA时间序列的需求和目标库存最大策略的假定条件下,建立了供应链系统模型。利用时间序列分析方法推导了库存序列、订货序列和库存残差序列的方程表达式,证明库存序列、订货序列和库存残差序列同样为ARMA时间序列,自回归和移动平均的阶数依赖于需求时间序列的阶数和提前期的大小,且订货序列和库存残差序列的自回归部分与需求的自回归部分相同。     

基于秘密共享方案的小波混沌数字水印算法

在对小波域混沌数字水印算法研究的基础上,引入Shamir理论秘密共享思想,提出一种新的基于Shamir秘密共享的小波混沌数字水印算法。新算法将小波分解所得到的子图作为分存信息的保存对象,嵌入部分或者全部的数字水印信息。在水印的提取中,根据Shamir理论利用部分子信息就可以恢复出初始水印信息。实验表明该算法拥有好的视觉效果,提高了传统算法的鲁棒性,是一种实际可行的数字水印算法。     

LEARNING CAUSAL GRAPHS OF NONLINEAR STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL USING INFORMATION THEORY CRITERIA

Detection and clarification of cause-effect relationships among variables is an important problem in time series analysis. Traditional causality inference methods have a salient limitation that the model must be linear and with Gaussian noise. Although additive model regression can effectively infer the nonlinear causal relationships of additive nonlinear time series, it suffers from the limitation that contemporaneous causal relationships of variables must be linear and not always valid to test conditional independence relations. This paper provides a nonparametric method that employs both mutual information and conditional mutual information to identify causal structure of a class of nonlinear time series models, which extends the additive nonlinear times series to nonlinear structural vector autoregressive models. An algorithm is developed to learn the contemporaneous and the lagged causal relationships of variables. Simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the nroosed method.     

Evidence for self-organized criticality in unscheduled downtime data of equipment

How to reduce downtime and improve availability of the complex equipment is very important. Although the unscheduled downtime（USDT） issues of the equipment are very complex, the self-organized criticality（SOC） is the right theory to study complex systems evolution and opens up a new window to the investigation of disasters, such as the sudden failure of the equipment. Firstly,SOC theory and its validation method are introduced. Then an SOC validation method for USDT of the equipment is proposed based on the above theory. Case study is done on bottleneck equipment in a factory and corresponding data pre-process work is done. The rescaled-range（R/S） analysis method is used to calculate the Hurst exponent of USDT time-series data in order to determine the long-range correlation of USDT data on time scale;at the same time the spatial power-law characteristic of USDT time series data is studied. The result shows that the characteristics of SOC are revealed in USDT data of the equipment according to the criterion of SOC. In addition, based on the characteristics of SOC,the overall framework of the prediction method for major sudden failure of the equipment is proposed based on SOC.     

关于连续型随机变量函数分布类型的一个反例

给出了一个反例,说明一个连续型随机变量由非平凡的连续函数作用后得到的新随机变量不一定为连续型随机变量.     

乘积季节模型在广西居民消费价格指数预测中的应用

以广西2000年至2013年月度居民消费价格指数为研究对象,利用差分运算剔除季节效应和长期趋势效应,建立乘积季节模型ARIMA,并将拟合值和实际值进行比较。结果表明:该模型拟合值与真实值的绝对误差百分比控制在2%范围内,模型拟合效果较好。最后,利用模型对广西2014年1月至5月居民消费价格指数进行预测,预测结果为政府及相关部门运用宏观调控将物价维持在一个合理水平提供参考。     

一类G-框架及其对偶的若干性质

在一个新的Hilbert空间上定义了G-框架及G-对偶框架,并且讨论了他们的性质,改进和推广了其他学者的成果.