Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?

Because of their natural adherence to the climate and pronounced seasonal cycles, prices of field crops constitute an interesting field for exploring seasonal time series models. We consider quarterly prices of two major cereals: barley and wheat. Using traditional in‐sample fit and moving‐window techniques, we investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit‐root stochastic and whether seasonal cycles have converged over time. We find that seasonal cycles in the data are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries differs for the two commodities. Out‐of‐sample prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not match the statistical in‐sample evidence. Parametric bootstrap experiments establish that the observed mismatch is indeed an inherent and systematic feature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于强化局部特征的3D点云分类与分割网络

在点云的处理过程中,许多深度学习网络未能充分考虑局部点之间的复杂关系,导致大量空间几何信息丢失。针对该问题,提出了一个强化局部特征的网络,用于点云的目标分类和语义分割。该网络通过设计编码单元对点的多方向信息进行编码;通过注意力机制学习采样分组后形成局部点云的特征。同时提出了一种新的多维损失函数,结合使用交叉熵损失函数与中心损失函数作用于分类任务。在数据集ModelNet40和ScanNet上进行了大量实验,结果表明：该网络在点云的目标分类和语义分割任务上表现出较好的性能。     

当代出舱活动技术发展

出舱活动技术有多种分类方法和广泛用途,并需使用气闸舱、舱外航天服等一些先进而复杂的硬件设备.40多年来.经过苏联/俄罗斯、美国等国的专家的不断开发.出舱活动技术已有了长足的发展.俄美两国在出舱活动系统方面各有特色,在出舱训练技术方面也各有千秋.中国航天员将进行首次出舱活动,成为世界上第3个完全独立实现出舱活动的国家.     

无人机与车辆协助下的分布式多任务边缘计算卸载算法

为满足密集分布用户的服务质量和体验质量,建立了车辆和无人机协助下的多接入边缘计算卸载模型,车辆、无人机和路边单元作为边缘节点,将不同的计算任务按需卸载到不同类型的边缘节点进行处理.设计了基于分布式匹配-贪婪算法的终端用户任务卸载方案以最小化系统功耗,并研究了用户数量和延迟容忍对卸载方案的影响.仿真结果表明:该方案在满足...     

Making the abstract concrete: The role of norms and values in experimental modeling

Experimental modeling is the construction of theoretical models hand in hand with experimental activity. As explained in Section 1, experimental modeling starts with claims about phenomena that use abstract concepts, concepts whose conditions of realization are not yet specified; and it ends with a concrete model of the phenomenon, a model that can be tested against data. This paper argues that this process from abstract concepts to concrete models involves judgments of relevance, which are irreducibly normative. In Section 2, we show, on the basis of several case studies, how these judgments contribute to the determination of the conditions of realization of the abstract concepts and, at the same time, of the quantities that characterize the phenomenon under study. Then, in Section 3, we compare this view on modeling with other approaches that also have acknowledged the role of relevance judgments in science. To conclude, in Section 4, we discuss the possibility of a plurality of relevance judgments and introduce a distinction between locally and generally relevant factors.     

GDP数据生成模式

从现代经济计量学的角度分析了国内生产总值(GDP)绝对数的数据生成模式及GDP指数的数据生成模式，得到GDP绝对数的对数序列是一单位根过程、GDP指数的对数序列是一稳定过程。最后，讨论了两模型间的转换。     

构建和谐企业 促进工会发展

阐述了企业工会工作的重要意义,以山西省水利建筑工程局工会为例,探讨了和谐社会建设中工会工作的新内容。     

不分明单位区间及其在不分明拓扑中的应用

不分明单位区间是一个十分重要的不分明拓扑空间,在不分明拓扑中有着广泛的应用.国内外学者已发表了不少文章讨论它的各种性质和应用。本文综述了有关这方面的某些主要研究成果.     

pq阶环

证明了ｐｑ阶环是循环环，进而讨论了ｐｑ阶环的一个数及其构造。     

带均值漂移的HEGY检验及其实证研究

研究了含多个均值漂移的HEGY检验.通过模拟实验,发现如果没有正确选择HEGY检验所含有的均值漂移个数,那么检验结果将会产生偏差.用不含均值漂移、含一个均值漂移和含两个均值漂移的HEGY模型研究了广东月度工业总产值周期性变化问题,结果表明,1991年至2003年间广东工业生产存在两个季节性均值漂移,仅含有一个非季节单位根.因此,选择含两个均值漂移的HEGY模型更适合本问题的研究.