Fundamentals of the analytic network process — Dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network

The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a multicriteria theory of measurement used to derive relative priority scales of absolute numbers from individual judgments (or from actual measurements normalized to a relative form) that also belong to a fundamental scale of absolute numbers. These judgments represent the relative influence, of one of two elements over the other in a pairwise comparison process on a third element in the system, with respect to an underlying control criterion. Through its supermatrix, whose entries are themselves matrices of column priorities, the ANP synthesizes the outcome of dependence and feedback within and between clusters of elements. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with its independence assumptions on upper levels from lower levels and the independence of the elements in a level is a special case of the ANP. The ANP is an essential tool for articulating our understanding of a decision problem. One had to overcome the limitation of linear hierarchic structures and their mathematical consequences. This part on the ANP summarizes and illustrates the basic concepts of the ANP and shows how informed intuitive judgments can lead to real life answers that are matched by actual measurements in the real world (for example, relative dollar values) as illustrated in market share examples that rely on judgments and not on numerical data. Thomas L. Saaty holds the Chair of University Professor, Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, and obtained his Ph.D. in mathematics from Yale University. Before that he was a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania for ten years. Prior to that he spent seven years at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency in the State Department in Washington, DC, that carried out the arms reduction negotiations with the Soviets in Geneva. His current research interests include decision-making, planning, conflict resolution and synthesis in the brain. As a result of his search for an effective means to deal with weapons tradeoffs at the Disarmament Agency and, more generally, with decision-making and resource allocation, Professor Saaty developed The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). He is co-developer of the software Expert Choice and of the software Super Decisions for decisions with dependence and feedback. He has authored or co-authored twelve books on the AHP/ANP. Professor Saaty has also written a number of other books that embrace a variety of topics, including Modern Nonlinear Equations, Nonlinear Mathematics, Graph Theory, The Four Color Problem, Behavioral Mathematics, Queuing Theory, Optimization in Integers, Embracing the Future and The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works. His most recent book is Creative Thinking, Problem Solving & Decision Making. The book is a rich collection of ideas, incorporating research by a growing body of researchers and practitioners, profiles of creative people, projects and products, theory, philosophy, physics and metaphysics...all explained with a liberal dose of humor. He has published more than 300 refereed articles in a wide variety of professional journals. He has been on the editorial boards of Mathematical Reviews, Operations Research, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Mathematical and Computer Modeling, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Applied Mathematics Letters, and several others. He also served as consultant to many corporations and governments.     

谈变额人寿保险

由于定额人寿保险的收益偏低，以及居民传统守旧的投资观念，导致投资者对人寿保险投保的热情锐减，本文认为保险业有必要采取积极的措施，改革传统的投资观念，加快发掘和引进新的投资理念，提高保险业的竞争力，从而达到保险额的大幅增长的目的。     

胎儿颅脑生长规律的研究

测量不同时期胎儿的颅脑外形及脑重，有助于研究胎儿颅脑生长规律及优生优育。我们按全国胚胎外形测量统一标准和方法，对胎儿颅脑进行了4项指标的测量，得出如下结论：胎儿颅脑生长的规律是，随着脸龄增加，胎儿颅脑生长速度逐渐加快。     

老年人的脑血流图

本文报道200例60岁以上老年人脑血流图的测定结果,并与184例青年人的脑血流图进行比较分析。老年人脑血流图的特点,主要表现为:波型发生一定变化(转折波增多,乳头、圆顶、平顶等波的比例也有所增多),重搏波减低或消失,波幅下降,两侧波幅的不对称有所增加,上升时间延长,上升角变小,顶夹角变钝,流入容积速度减慢,转折高此值和血管弹力指数变小,紧张度指数和血管阻力指数增大等。     

10个品系杂交杨叶片二氧化碳同化量固碳率估算

研究了我国重点杨树培育区10个不同品系生长季内光能转化固碳量中CO2同化量变化.实验结果发现,叶片光合中心的实际光化学猝灭达到0.5～0.6之间时,固碳同化量达到最大,不同品种固碳量不同;在7月份光能转化中固碳率最大,随着季节的变化各个品系的杂交杨达到最佳的实际光化学效率的光饱和的转折点发生变化;本地种I467、P64、DA随季节的变化逐渐增大,其他本地种不变;引进种只有DN2不变,其他种均随季节的变化而变化.研究表明在低光区叶片更容易达到较高的光化学效率,在高光区反而随光的增强而有所降低,这体现了植物叶片对强光的自我保护特性;CO2同化效率与光化学效率成正相关,随光化学效率增强不断增强,当达到0.5～0.6时开始降低,变成负相关.     

银额果蝇(Drosophila albomicans)细胞色素b基因的初步研究

通过PCR直接测序和克隆后测序的方法获得了不同银额果蝇单雌系细胞色素b基因的部分序列,并对这些序列进行分析．结果表明银额果蝇单雌系细胞色素b基因存在着一定的地理分化,银额果蝇细胞色素b基因序列不仅在不同地理群体间存在着差异,而且同一地理群体内也存在着差异,有时群体内的差异比群体间的差异还要显著．通过研究再一次说明了银额果蝇的分化已达到亚种和半种水平．     

初次缺血性卒中患者出现血管性痴呆的影响因素

目的探讨初次缺血性卒中患者出现血管性痴呆的影响因素.方法收集初次脑梗死患者426例,根据发病3个月后的认知情况分为血管性痴呆组146例,对照组280例.收集患者的人口学资料,CT或MRI、颈动脉彩超、心动图检查结果,合并慢性病情况,出院后进行3个月的随访,记录后续治疗措施.结果血管性痴呆组患者年龄、吸烟率、饮酒率、梗死面积、脑白质变性率、脑萎缩率、心肌缺血率、Hcy水平、高血压率、糖尿病率均明显高于对照组患者,文化程度、出院后康复治疗率明显低于对照组患者,差异具有统计学意义(P0.05).多因素Logistic回归分析显示:高龄(60岁)、较大梗死面积(5.67 cm2)、合并脑白质变性、合并脑萎缩、高Hcy水平(18.08μmol/L)、合并高血压、糖尿病是脑梗死后出现血管性痴呆的独立危险因素;较高文化程度(高中及以上)、出院后给予康复治疗是脑梗死后出现血管性痴呆的独立保护因素.结论初次脑梗死患者中高龄、高Hcy水平、梗死灶面积大、合并脑白质病变、脑萎缩、高血压和糖尿病会增加血管性痴呆的发生风险;高文化水平(高中及以上)和康复治疗可降低血管性痴呆的发生风险.     

保护珍稀濒危鸟种 科学看待鸟儿迁徙

<正>每年秋天,天空中就会有成群的鸟儿不断地飞翔,它们飞过陆地和海洋,一直飞到千里万里之外的目的地。次年春天,它们又会按照原路返回夏天的家。它们年年都做着同样的事,这就是迁徙——候鸟在繁殖区和越冬区之间定期进行的迁移活动。迁徙虽然不是鸟类所专有的本能活动,但是作为一个动物类群来说,鸟类的迁徙是最普遍和引人注目的,它们的飞行     

甘丙肽及其在神经系统中的作用研究进展

甘丙肽是一个由２９－３０个氨基酸组成的神经肽,广泛分布于神经系统及其他组织中,甘丙肽Ｎ－末端１－１５片段是高度保守的,为与受体作用的部位,甘丙肽受体的ｃＤＮＡ已克隆出,据此推导出的甘丙肽受体由３４６和３４９个氨基酸组成,属于Ｇ－蛋白偶联的受体类型。现有的几种甘丙肽受体拮抗剂多是在甘丙肽保守的Ｎ－末端上合成,均为多肽类。大量的研究显示,甘丙肽在脊髓水平具有与内源性阿片肽协同抑制伤害性信息传递的作用,