Relationships of the Monetary Policy, Stock Market and Real Investment in China Based on Markov-Switching Model

This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.     

维修保障系统效能的分形评估算法研究

建模与仿真技术的应用为解决复杂大系统的效能评估提供了一种有效的技术手段。在介绍空军通信装备战时维修保障仿真系统总体结构的基础上,主要侧重于对系统仿真结果的评估,提出了以分形理论为基础的维修保障系统效能评估算法,并与层次分析法和突变评价法的结果进行比较,结论一致。其评估结果可为决策提供定量依据,为解决军事领域的类似效能评估问题提供一种新思路。     

江西省雷电灾害易损性分析及其区划

详细分析江西省自然环境、经济状况和雷灾损失情况,根据该省近9年的雷电灾害统计资料和1951年以来的年平均雷暴日统计资料,选取雷击密度、雷电灾害频数、经济易损指标、生命易损指标作为雷灾易损性评价指标。对江西省各设区市的雷灾易损性进行了综合评估,初步形成了江西省雷灾易损性区划,为防御和减低雷电损失的规划提供了科学依据。     

医用钛合金表面沉积AlTiN涂层在模拟人体生理环境中的腐蚀行为

采用高度离子化脉冲工艺(H．I．P)在医用Ti6Al4V合金表面成功制备了AlTiN陶瓷涂层。采用电化学腐蚀方法用三电极系统对Ti6Al4V—AlTiN在模拟人体生理环境中进行抗侵蚀试验,并作出极化曲线与Ti6Al4V合金进行对比分析。分析表明：相同条件下,Ti6Al4V -AlTiN在模拟人体生理环境中的抗侵蚀性更加优异。     

网箱养殖区野生许氏平的种群数量

利用非线性回归法,评估得到爱莲湾野生许氏平的丰度为0.01 ind/m2,种群数量大体和5.6个大型抗风浪网箱或135个筏式网箱放养的鱼类数量相当.野生鱼类将产生正或负的生态效应,和养殖鱼类竞争DO,因排泄而支持爱莲湾初级生产所需氮的0.8%~1.3%,同时消耗残饵和排出粪便.     

Approach to Weighted Geometric Evaluation Based on Projection Pursuit

Weighted geometric evaluation approach based on Projection pursuit （PP） model is presented in this paper to optimize the choice of schemes. By using PP model, the multi-dimension evaluation index values of schemes can be synthesized into projection value with one dimension. The scheme with a bigger projection value is much better, so the schemes sample can be an optimized choice according to the projection value of each scheme. The modeling of PP based on accelerating genetic algorithm can predigest the realized process of projection pursuit technique, can overcome the shortcomings of large computation amount and the difficulty of computer programming in traditional projection pursuit methods, and can give a new method for application of projection pursuit technique to optimize choice of schemes by using weighted geometric evaluation. The analysis of an applied sample shows that applying PP model driven directly by samples data to optimize choice of schemes is both simple and feasible, that its projection values are relatively decentralized and profit decision-making, that its applicability and maneuverability are high. It can avoid the shortcoming of subjective weighing method, and its results are scientific and objective.     

高校教师教学质量评估的实践与思考

教学工作是高校的中心工作,只有不断提高教学质量,才能保证完成高校培养合格人才的根本任务。而教师教学质量,在很大程度上决定着整个学校教学质量的高低,因而,建立规范、科学、操作性强的教学质量评估体系显得尤为重要。本文将从分析教学质量评估作用、现状入手,针对现行评估体系中存在的不足,提出开展教师教学质量评估的有效对策。     

Credit Assessment of Contractors： A Rough Set Method

Introduction China’s construction industry has encountered a credit crisis in parallel with its remarkable progress in recent years.Bad credit results in increasing nonperformance,poor quality projects,chains of defaults,fraud and cor-ruption in the indu…     

一种防范多阶段网络攻击的综合分析方法

提出了一种防范多阶段网络攻击的综合分析方法，首先捕获系统漏洞、攻击者的能力、以及这些信息之间的关系，将其模型化；然后利用改进的模型检测器NuSMV自动产生只包含能对系统造成危害的漏洞的攻击链；最后以攻击链为基础建立简化的攻击树，通过将攻击树量化进行风险评估、可靠性评估、最短路径分析等等。仿真实验表明该方法不仅能够有效的防范多阶段攻击，而且能够对网络进行脆弱性评估。     

基于模糊综合评判的电子战效能评估

电子战系统是一个庞大复杂的系统，其效能是一个综合指标，包含多种技术因素和不确定性，对系统的评估也是一项复杂的工作，涉及许多难以量化的模糊因素．为了评估电子战系统作战效能，本文首先给出了效能评估的指标体系，然后提出了基于模糊综合评判的电子战效能模型，最后通过对参数由专家和军事指挥员提供的案例的研究，论证了模型和方法的可行性和有效性．