群体性事件社会风险预警机制探析

社会转型时期群体性事件加剧,应加强群体性事件社会风险的前端预警研究。本文在理论梳理的基础上,针对我国群体性事件社会风险治理的现状,借鉴国外经验,提出构建群体性事件社会风险预警机制的具体建议,以实现群体性事件危机治理常态化。     

见微知著 未雨绸缪——略论辅导员在预防大学生群体性突发事件中的作为

在预防大学生群体性突发事件过程中,辅导员认真研究大学生群体性突发事件的特点、处置原则及对策,提前妥善安排各项工作,全方位、多层次进行安全预警,对促进高校思想政治教育和构建和谐校园,具有十分重要的意义.     

论高校群体性突发事件的成因、特征及多元处置机制

文章分析了高校群体性突发事件的成因与特征,认为高校群体性突发事件是校园建设的突出隐患,并提出高校群体性突发事件的多元处置机制。     

基于神经网络的旅游突发事件预警研究

介绍了旅游突发事件和对其进行预警的意义.基于BP神经网络,建立了旅游突发事件预警模型,并对旅游突发事件预警模型进行了测试.测试结果表明,该模型具有较好的预测效果.     

突发事件下群体抢购行为的舆论传播机理研究

本文从舆论传播的角度,采用有界信任规则,通过引入突发事件的不确定性环境噪音因子,构建用于分析群体抢购行为的噪音异质有界信任模型.然后,通过计算机仿真,分析了信任水平不同的子群体比例变化和突发事件所引发的不确定性大小对群体观点演化的影响.研究结果将为突发事件下群体抢购行为舆论引导机制的建立和有效实施提供理论依据.     

突发公共事件应急平台系统研究

为了提高对突发公共事件的反应能力,实现多级、多部门的协同工作,研究并设计了突发公共事件应急平台系统。系统采用了J2EE(Java2 Platform Enterprise Edition)应用模型和MVC(Model View Controller)架构,增强了系统的健壮性、可维护性和可扩展性。实践证明,系统在一定程度上满足了应急相关部门的要求,为应急相关部门的工作的有效开展奠定了基础。     

Climate instability during the last glaciation recorded in the Yuanbu loess section

Abrupt events within the Linxia Yuanbu loess section in the western Loess Plateau in China were investigated. The climatic proxy index of the content of mean grain-size and >4 μm grain-size fraction of the section was used as a climatic indicator, and a moving average method was applied in the statistical analysis to extract the abrupt events recorded in the section. It was found that the loess of the last glaciation recorded not only the abrupt events teleconnected with the high-latitude North Atlantic and Greenland regions but also as many as 15 abrupt events in addition to the Heinrich (H) and Younger Dryas (YD) events. This indicates that abrupt climate changes were typical of the climate changes occurring in the Loess Plateau during the last glaciation. The widely recognized mechanisms of the abrupt climate changes, including the heat transfer theory of the North Atlantic Ocean, the atmospheric circulation theory, and the theory of the interaction between low-latitude ocean and the atmosphere remains to be discussed. Perhaps this problem could be resolved by revealing the relation between the evolution of the features of the East Asian monsoon climate and the climate in the surrounding areas. Through a detailed study of the features of the Heinrich and YD events, criteria on which the abrupt events recorded in the loess could be distinguished were tentatively defined. The events were associated with a large grain size, high carbonate content, high lightness, low susceptibility, low redness and low yellowness. In addition, the variation amplitude of the adjacent peak and valley on the curve of the content of the mean grain-size and >40 μm grain-size fraction was larger than 3.4 μm and the content of >40 μm grain-size fraction was larger than 2.0 μm. Lastly, the length of the variation time was less than 500 years. If all these criteria were met, the event was viewed as an abrupt event.     

突发事件的应对与政府危机管理机制构建

在我国学者的界定里，突发事件与危机或为一体，或有交叉，存在程度差异，作者更愿意从程度差异的角度来分析。突发事件为突然发生的、可能带来一定的负面影响的事件，强调影响的潜在性与可能性；危机则是指因为某种非常因素引发的、严重危害社会正常秩序、给社会带来重大损失和不良影响的事件，突出了影响的显现性与严重性。突发事件上升到危机，可导致政府与公众关系恶化，政府形象遭受损害，社会秩序产生混乱。这样，可以便于我们更好的把握突发事件与危机的界限，从而使学术界和政府实务操作能在认识上保持一致。     

高校大学生群体性事件原因的多维度理论阐释与处置机制

本文分别从功能主义冲突论、相对剥夺论和集体行为形成理论对高校大学生群体性事件的原因做了剖析。对"处置"高校学生群体性事件进行辩证性分析。为有效妥善处置高校大学生群体性事件,需建立对高校大学生群体性事件的预警机制、健全事件发生时的应急控制机制、建立群体性事件的监控和应急调度机制、完善对高校大学生群体性事件的善后处理和事件评估机制。     

Long-term trend and abrupt events of the Holocene Asian monsoon inferred from a stalagmite δ18O record from Shennongjia in Central China

The middle-Holocene was a period of profound cul- ture transitions: the Neolithic culture around Central China[1], Mesopotamia[2] and India[3] all mysteriously collapsed around 4 ka . It is plausible that this civiliza-tion collapse can be contributed to …