试论厄尼诺与山东降水作物产量的关系

厄尼诺现象使山东夏季降水偏少，强度越大，干旱越重，用降水与分离的气候产量进行回归分析的到需水量，进而评价其满足程度。厄尼诺强年所有作物减产，弱年与发生时间有关。     

东部非渊的自然带与气候状况的关系

用东部非洲的气候资料了可能用量与土壤水分平衡，并分析了年降水量，年可能蒸散量及两者之间的比值和土壤水分平衡的分布情况，探讨了东部非洲的自然带与气候状况的关系。     

山东泰安近53年的气候变化及其对果品生产的影响

文章对泰安市近53年的气候变化规律作了分析．发现谊地区气温上升．降水减少，日照降低,对全球变化响应显著．运用近53年的气候特征值重点对苹果作了气候适宜性评价．表明苹果的主要限制性因素是高温．水果产量和气候特征值的相关分析发现．高温已经对苹果和梨的产量产生了负面影响．果品结构正在调整中．苹果的比例在下降．其他优质高产品种桃子、葡萄、樱桃等的比重在增加．     

明清时期广东地区气候变冷对社会经济发展的影响

通过对比广东15世纪末至19世纪末即LIA期间的气象灾害、战乱、人口发展等几方面的数据,研究了明清时期气候变冷对广东地区社会经济发展的影响,发现这一时期农业生产的衰退、生态环境的恶化、战乱和农民起义的增多、人口发展的减缓以及瘟疫次数的增加,都与气候变冷有明显的相关性.同时指出,气候变冷的各个可能的影响结果之间,又有着密切的联系,它们相互影响,相互作用,严重阻碍了明清时期广东社会经济的正常发展.     

长治市冰雹天气的气候特征分析

针对长治市在1980—2003年发生的冰雹灾害天气,从时间尺度、时空地理分布、月年际变化、冰雹源地、冰雹主要影响路径以及降雹关键日等方面进行了分析,为冰雹灾害天气预报提供了可靠的气候背景。另外对500hPa天气图进行了分析,给出了长治降雹的3种(冷槽型、冷涡型、西北气流型)天气形势。应用最优子集回归法对500hPa,850hPa图上高空指标站温度、温度露点差、风向、风速进行定量化选取,给出了冰雹灾害天气预报的某些参数及综合性预报指标。     

Global warming： Take action or wait？

Of all the changes wrought by human activity, the buildup in our atmosphere of the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, has gener- ated the most contentious debate. Environmentalists warn that in the absence of firm action, over th…     

Some evidence of drying trend over northern China from 1951 to 2004

The surface wetness index, Palmer drought sererity index and the retrieval of soil moisture over China were calculated using monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature. Based on the contrast analysis of the variation of the above three indices and precipitation, the dry/wet spatio-temporal pattern of northern China in the last 54 years was revealed, and the evidence of drying trend over northern China was analyzed, especially. The results show the following four facts: (1) The drying trend is the main characteristic of the eastern part of Northwest China and the central part of North China since the 1980s and it was enhanced in the last 15 years mainly due to the precipitation decrease and the temperature increase; (2) During the last 54 years, there was only one dry/wet shift at the interdecadal scale occurring in the eastern part of Northwest China and the central part of North China in the late 1970s, which was related to 1977/1978 global abrupt change, whereas there were three shifts in Northeast China, one was in the mid 1990s and the other two were in 1965 and 1983, respectively; (3) Unlike the variation trend of other subregions of northern China, the western part of Northwest China is currently located in a relatively wetting period, which is weak-ened due to the temperature increase; (4) The extreme drought frequency is obviously increasing in the eastern part of Northwest China, the central part of North China and Northeast China since the 1980s, which is closely related to the precipitation decrease and temperature increase in these subregions.     

一种改进的相空间近邻等距模式及其在短期气候预测中的试验

现有研究表明,气候要素系统可能存在混沌现象.通过应用混沌理论中的重建相空间技术,可在相空间中揭示出传统方法无法揭示的复杂气候动力特征,为气候预测研究开创一条新途径.现有相空间理论的研究多着重于对混沌系统的识别和应用混沌相空间理论建立不同的模式进行提前预测,这些预测多为对月时间尺度的;对于如何提高预报准确率和延长预报时效,从而实现对多个月份、季、年等更长时间尺度提前预报的研究还不多见.基于混沌理论的相空间近邻等距模式,对该理论中的提前预报时间T、延迟时间τ和相空间维数d等进行讨论.提出,实际应用中根据提前预报时间T来建立新的时间序列,满足T=τ=sδt,消除了相空间时滞τ的变化对提前预报时间尺度T的影响.应用改进前、后的预报模式,以不同相空间维数d对气温和降水气候要素做提前T=1~15个月的预报试验和检验.结果发现,改进后的模式提高了预报准确率,延长了预报时效.     

宜宾南部山区发展优质烤烟的气候分析

烤烟是茄科叶用经济作物，它的可塑性很强、适应范围广。人们对它的需求，首先是优质，其次才是丰产。但是优质烟的形成则对外界环境条件反应敏感，烤烟的不同生长期对温度、湿度、日照等气象要素有不同需求。本文利用宜宾南部山区县气象站，水文站、气象哨的气象资料进行分析，为科学确定宜宾南部山区优质烤烟种植区域和合理安排生长时段提供参考依据。