Fundamentals of the analytic network process — Dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network

The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a multicriteria theory of measurement used to derive relative priority scales of absolute numbers from individual judgments (or from actual measurements normalized to a relative form) that also belong to a fundamental scale of absolute numbers. These judgments represent the relative influence, of one of two elements over the other in a pairwise comparison process on a third element in the system, with respect to an underlying control criterion. Through its supermatrix, whose entries are themselves matrices of column priorities, the ANP synthesizes the outcome of dependence and feedback within and between clusters of elements. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with its independence assumptions on upper levels from lower levels and the independence of the elements in a level is a special case of the ANP. The ANP is an essential tool for articulating our understanding of a decision problem. One had to overcome the limitation of linear hierarchic structures and their mathematical consequences. This part on the ANP summarizes and illustrates the basic concepts of the ANP and shows how informed intuitive judgments can lead to real life answers that are matched by actual measurements in the real world (for example, relative dollar values) as illustrated in market share examples that rely on judgments and not on numerical data. Thomas L. Saaty holds the Chair of University Professor, Katz Graduate School of Business, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, and obtained his Ph.D. in mathematics from Yale University. Before that he was a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania for ten years. Prior to that he spent seven years at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency in the State Department in Washington, DC, that carried out the arms reduction negotiations with the Soviets in Geneva. His current research interests include decision-making, planning, conflict resolution and synthesis in the brain. As a result of his search for an effective means to deal with weapons tradeoffs at the Disarmament Agency and, more generally, with decision-making and resource allocation, Professor Saaty developed The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). He is co-developer of the software Expert Choice and of the software Super Decisions for decisions with dependence and feedback. He has authored or co-authored twelve books on the AHP/ANP. Professor Saaty has also written a number of other books that embrace a variety of topics, including Modern Nonlinear Equations, Nonlinear Mathematics, Graph Theory, The Four Color Problem, Behavioral Mathematics, Queuing Theory, Optimization in Integers, Embracing the Future and The Brain: Unraveling the Mystery of How It Works. His most recent book is Creative Thinking, Problem Solving & Decision Making. The book is a rich collection of ideas, incorporating research by a growing body of researchers and practitioners, profiles of creative people, projects and products, theory, philosophy, physics and metaphysics...all explained with a liberal dose of humor. He has published more than 300 refereed articles in a wide variety of professional journals. He has been on the editorial boards of Mathematical Reviews, Operations Research, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, Mathematical and Computer Modeling, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Applied Mathematics Letters, and several others. He also served as consultant to many corporations and governments.     

几种求最少混合变量的原理和方法

网络图论已经证明，对于无独立电源的松驰网络，最少混合变量数等于网络的拓扑自由度．但是对于存在独立电源和／或非松驰网络，如何求最少混合变量，还是一个有待进一步探讨的问题．因此提出三种求最少混合变量的原理和方法，以提高混合变量方程的实用性．     

Preparation and investigation of the tribologieal behavior of FPUOH self-assembly thin films

用已二酸和乙二醇在一定的条件下通过酯化和缩聚两步反应合成聚己二酸乙二醇酯(PEA),测所得聚酯二元醇的酸酯(Av)和羟值(Qv),得到合成聚氨酯大分子单体的原料.聚已二酸乙二醇酯(PEA)与等量的甲苯-2,4-二异氰酸酯(TDI-100)反应,加入十三氟-1-辛醇封端,得到含氟聚氨酯大分子单体(FPUOH).利用分子自组装技术在玻璃基片表面制备含氟聚氨酯薄膜,对其进行结构表征和性能测试.亲水性测试结果表明,自组装薄膜与水的接触角为76.8°,证明了自组装薄膜制备的成功.微摩擦测试结果表明,含氟聚氨酯大分子自组装薄膜修饰的基底具有很好的减摩润滑效果,当载荷为400 mN时,自组装薄膜的稳定摩擦系数达到0.09,适合作为轻载荷下的润滑防护保护膜.     

四元共聚疏水缔合物HPAE的制备及流变性能

以亲水性的丙烯酰胺(AM)、丙烯酸(AA)为主链单体,通过引入一种新型具有两亲结构的非离子疏水单体EDP-10,与功能性抗盐单体2-丙烯酰胺基-2-甲基丙磺酸(AMPS)进行水溶液聚合,制备了一种新型疏水缔合四元共聚物HPAE。确定了最佳合成条件:EDP-10的加量为1.2wt%,采用过硫酸铵/亚硫酸氢钠/水溶性偶氮复合引发体系进行引发,引发剂质量分数(占单体总量)为0.03wt%,p H为7.0~7.5,引发温度为5℃。对疏水单体EDP-10及HPAE进行了红外表征,并对HPAE进行了流变性能评价。黏弹性测试结果表明HPAE具有较好的增稠性能,其溶液存在较强的网络结构,由于缔合原因形成的结构强度所承受的应力范围及频率范围也随着浓度的增大而明显增强,触变性测试结果表明HPAE具有明显的触变性。     

含噻二唑的双官能度聚氧化乙烯的合成及表征

在非均相体系中,以含噻二唑环的新型阴离子型聚合引发剂,引发氧化乙烯开环聚合,再分别用甲醇和甲基丙烯酰氯封端,得相应的PEO聚合产物.用IR,NMR,UV对产物进行了表征,用VPO和GPC测定了聚合大单体的分子量及分子量分布.     

基团转移聚合法合成山梨酸酯类聚合物的研究

设计及合成不同官能团的山梨酸酯类单体,以有机催化剂膦腈碱(1-tert-butyl-4,4,4-tris(dimethylamino)-2,2-bis[tris(dimethylamino)phosphoranylidenamino]-2Λ~5,4Λ~5-catenadi(phosphazene),t-Bu-P4)为催化剂(1-methoxy-1-trimethylsilyloxy-2-methyl-propene)MTS为引发剂,采用基团转移聚合法(Group Transfer Polymerization,GTP)精确合成分子量可控的聚山梨酸酯。通过核磁氢谱、凝胶渗透色谱表征聚合物的结构及分子量,分散性指数(PDI)在1.16～1.25之间,分子量与理论分子量相吻合;利用差示扫描热量法(DSC)测试聚合物的玻璃化转变温度(-27.38℃～33.94℃),并讨论官能团对玻璃化转变温度的影响及规律。     

基于形态结构特征的对流单体自动分割方法研究

风暴单体是形成各类强对流灾害天气的基本单元,它们的雷达回波形状复杂、内部分布不一、外层相互交织,从而造成单体分割困难.提出了一种基于形态结构特征的对流单体自动迭代分割方法.以雷达图片中区域树结构单体分割结果为初始输入,在每次迭代分割过程中,首先计算各个分割结果的3个形态结构特征,然后通过一个预先训练的支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)分类器判断分割结果是否为对流单体,对非单体的分割结果进行再次分割.通过3种不同类型的风暴案例进行测试,结果表明,本文方法能够有效地识别出聚集的单体和处于分裂/合并状态的单体,并且能够获得单体的完整结构.在定量评估测试中,本文算法获得了0.84的临界成功指数评分,高于传统的风暴单体识别与跟踪算法(Storm Cell Identification and Tracking,SCIT)方法(0.55)和单阈值方法(0.49).     

一种钯离子印迹聚合物的制备优化研究

采用沉淀聚合法, 以PdCl₄²⁻为模板, 以4-乙烯基吡啶(4-VP)、2-烯丙巯基烟酸(ANA)、2-乙酸胺基丙烯酸(AAA)为功能单体, 加入交联剂二甲基丙烯酸乙二醇酯(EGDMA)、引发剂偶氮二异丁腈(AIBN)和致孔剂甲醇, 制备钯离子印迹聚合物。通过添加不同种类、用量的功能单体和不同用量的交联剂, 探究不同制备条件对钯离子印迹聚合物制备效果的影响。优化结果表明, 与ANA和AAA功能单体对比, 4-VP和PdCl₄^2–能形成4:1的稳定配合物, 结合常数最大, 印迹效果最好, 是 3 种功能单体中用于制备钯离子印迹聚合物的最佳选择。吸附试验结果进一步表明, 按照模板、功能单体、交联剂用量比例为1:4:40制备的钯离子印迹聚合物对Pd(II)的吸附量最大, 为5.042 mg/g。     

一次罕见的致灾飑线天气雷达回波分析

使用MICAPS资料、江西强天气监测数据、江西WebGIS雷达拼图数据和江西自动站等数据,采用数据统计、形态分析、个例对比等方法,对2019年3月21日江西上饶强飑线过程进行分析。结果表明:1)飑线是在低层暖湿、中层干冷,不稳定的大气层结以及江南暖倒槽发展、地面中尺度辐合线、低层切变线、急流共同作用下产生的,前期属于槽前暖平流强迫类强对流,后期冷锋强迫抬升转为斜压锋生类强对流;2)对流回波带发展成弓状回波结构后,回波强度CR可达60～70 dBz,弓状回波带中段前沿向前突出,移动速度达到110 km/h,带来雷暴大风、冰雹、强雷电和短时强降水等强对流天气;3)对流风暴前端大的回波梯度、快速移动的弓状回波,以及明显的悬垂结构、强的VIL都是容易造成雷暴大风、冰雹和短时强降水的雷达回波典型特征。     

烯类单体与丁腈橡胶直接共混制备吸水膨胀橡胶

用水溶性烯类单体与丁腈橡胶直接共混制备吸水膨胀橡胶ＷＳＲ（ｗａｔｅｒ－ｓｗｅｌｉｎｇｒｕｂｂｅｒ）,并对ＷＳＲ的亚微观形态、吸水膨胀特性、力学性能和浸水稳定性进行了研究。ＴＥＭ研究证明,水溶性单体与橡胶共混可制得亲水组分在橡胶相中分散均匀的ＷＳＲ;烯类单体的聚合反应活性越高,所制得的ＷＳＲ的吸水膨胀率越高;其由丙烯酸钠与橡胶共混制得的ＷＳＲ力学性能和耐久性与高吸水树脂／橡胶共混型ＷＳＲ相似