降水预测的模糊权马尔可夫模型及应用

中长期降水量的预测是气象科学的一个难点问题，论文首先基于降水过程存在大量不确定性、不精确性的特点，应用模糊有序聚类的方法建立降水丰桔状况的分级标准；然后针对降水量为相依随机变量的特点，采取以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重，用加权的马尔可夫链来预测未来降水的丰桔变化状况；在此基础上，根据模糊集理论中的级别特征值，计算出具体的降水量；最后以山西省河曲水文站近50年的降水资料为实例，对该方法进行了具体的应用，收到了较为满意的结果，从而为提高中长期降水量预报的精度提供了一条值得探索的途径。     

“三环制“供热系统中热水一级网运行计算研究

针对"三环制"供热系统,建立了热水一级网("二环")运行调节曲线数学模型,从而实现"三环制"供热系统连锁调节和自动控制,达到最大限度的节能.     

论新制二级学院学生管理工作的“身教”与“言教”

辅导员对学生的教育培养,“言教”固不可少,“身教”更为重要,二者相辅相成,缺一不可。从某种意义上讲,“身教”是“言教”取得效果的前提和保障。     

二价铜离子对牛正常朊蛋白二级结构的影响

研究了二价铜离子对牛朊蛋白的二级结构的影响.牛朊蛋白(BoPrPc)的小分子(BoPrPcS)和大分子(BoPrPcL)经初步纯化后,在含Cu2+的碱性溶液中氧化,用反相柱进行氧化态和还原态的BoPrPcL和BoPrPcS的分离.质谱分析证明氧化态的Bo-prPcL和BoPrPcS分子质量分别为24.064,15.819ku.用远紫外圆二色谱(Far-UVCD)分析显示,BoPrPcS在208和222m处出现两个负峰,为典型的α-螺旋型结构;而Bo-PrPcL在222nm处负峰减小.与未经氧化的BoPrPcL的质谱和CD结果比较后发现,氧化后的BoPrPcL在八肽重复区结合了6个Cu2+,其β-折叠含量明显增加.而Cu2+对BoPrPcS二级结构基本无影响.BoPrPcL结合Cu2+的特性及其二级结构的相应变化可能与细胞内抗Cu2+毒性与氧化压力有关.     

二级库存系统中库存策略的比较研究

着重研究在分配策略中,安全库存量和转载运输之间的关系.首先,分析了中心存放库存和分仓库之间转载的原理,并对不同策略的安全库存变化进行了探讨,由此得出将节约库存与增加运输进行比较的数学公式,以供决策者做出科学合理的策略选择.     

利用不完全LU分解的松弛型二级多分裂方法的收敛性

讨论内分裂为不完全LU分解时,松弛型二级多分裂方法的收敛性.当系数矩阵为单调矩阵或H-矩阵时,证明了松弛因子的收敛域严格包含区间(0,1],改进了已有的结果.     

北京地区降水年际变化及其城市效应的研究

用北京地区20个站近41年(1960—2000年)年降水资料讨论了北京地区年降水量大尺度年际变化特征及局地年降水距平的城市效应,主要结论有:(1)北京地区年降水量具有大尺度变化特征,其倾向率为-1．197／10a,相当于近41年北京地区年降水量减少了27．82 mm;(2)局地年降水距平百分比在城区附近为正距平中心,形成城市雨岛,其强度以0．6621%/10a增加,城市雨岛的年际变化与北京地区年降水量的年际变化趋势相反;(3)城市雨岛的变化还与天气过程强弱有关．当天气过程强(涝年)时,北京市区雨岛增强,当天气过程弱(旱年)时,北京市区雨岛消失．     

Community Climate Model 3模拟夏季极端降水的初步分析

采用累积频率的统计方法和Community Climate Model 3(CCM3)模拟的10年逐日降水结果,分析了模拟的夏季极端降水事件的时空分布特征.结果表明,CCM3模拟的极端降水阈值的大值区主要在我国黄河和长江流域的上游、印度半岛及其邻近海域和孟加拉湾及其北部地区.CCM3能够模拟出我国长江流域极端降水量与极端降水日数显著增加的趋势.对极端降水平均强度、降水日数以及极端降水量与总降水量比值的经验正交函数(EOF)分析可知,我国大部分地区的极端降水基本呈现同相变化,且以长江和黄河中游地区较为显著.CCM3模式基本能够模拟出观测到的极端降水阈值与总降水、极端降水日数及其距平的高空间相关性.     

综合降水技术在临江基坑中的施工应用

本工程通过轻型井点和真空深井相结合的降水方案,取得了良好的效果。     

Water isotope variations in the snow pack and summer precipitation at July 1 Glacier, Qilian Mountains in northwest China

This paper presents the stable isotope data of the snow pack and summer precipitation collected at the July 1 Glacier, Qilian Mountains in northwest China and analyses their relationships with meteorologi- cal factors. On an event scale, there is no temperature effect on the δ 18O values in the summer pre- cipitation, whereas the amount effect is shown to be clear. By tracing the moisture transport history and comparing the precipitation with its isotopic composition, it is shown that this amount effect not only reflects the change in moisture trajectory, which is related to the monsoon activities, but is also associated with the cooling degree of vapor in the cloud, the evaporation of falling raindrops and the isotopic exchange between the falling drops and the atmospheric vapor. As very little precipitation occurs in winter, the snow pack profile mainly represents the precipitation in the other three seasons. There are low precipitation δ 18O ratios in summer and high ratios in spring and autumn. The Meteoric Water Line (MLW) for the summer precipitation is δ D = 7.6 δ 18O 13.3, which is similar to that at Delingha, located in the south rim of the Qilian Mountains. The MWL for the snow pack is δ D = 10.4 δ 18O 41.4, showing a large slope and intercept. The deuterium excess (d) of the snow pack is positively correlated with δ 18O, indicating that both d and δ 18O decrease from spring to summer and increase from early autumn to early spring. This then results in the high slope and intercept of the MWL. Sea- sonal fluctuations of d in the snow pack indicate the change of moisture source and trajectory. During spring and autumn, the moisture originates from continental recycling or rapid evaporation over rela- tively warm water bodies like Black, Caspian and Aral Seas when the dry westerly air masses pass over them, hence very high d values in precipitation are formed. During summer, the monsoon is responsi- ble for the low d values. This indicates that the monsoon can reach the western part of the Qilian Mountains.