Inflation forecasting for aggregates of the EU-7 and EU-14 with Bayesian VAR models

This article applies the Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive (BVAR) model to key economic aggregates of the EU-7, consisting of the former narrow-band ERM members plus Austria, and the EU-14. This model appears to be useful as an additional forecasting tool besides structural macroeconomic models, as is shown both by absolute forecasting performance and by a comparison of ex-post BVAR forecasts with forecasts by the OECD. A comparison of the aggregate models to single-country models reveals that pooling has a strong impact on forecast errors. If forecast errors are interpreted as shocks, shocks appear to be—at least in part—asymmetric, or countries react differently to shocks. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

广西宏观经济管理信息系统设计

介绍广西宏观经济管理信息系统的建设目标、建设原则、系统结构、主要应用系统及采用的关键技术.该系统分为内部VPN专网和外网平台两部分,能实现自治区党委、政府和宏观经济管理部门网络互联互通和信息共享,能为自治区党委、政府及时、准确、全面地掌握宏观经济运行态势提供信息服务,能增强政府宏观调控、驾驭市场、应对突发事件、总揽经济全局的能力.     

金融风险下宏观经济模型的控制策略

在对于普遍应用的宏观经济离散系统的动态模型基础, 将宏观经济模型的供需均衡问题转化为平衡点渐近稳定问题，同时，考虑金融风险因素和由之产生的参数不确定性有金融风险对模型及系统运动等的影响。进行了H∞鲁棒控制策略的设计研究。从而使得所讨论的宏观经济系统能稳定于供需均衡点且使该过程受到的风险因素最小。     

开展企业经济运行分析工作之管见

阐述了企业开展经济运行分析工作的必要性,分析了企业经济运行分析工作的开展步骤,指出了开展企业经济运行分析工作所需的基本素质,提出了企业开展经济运行分析工作的原则及注意事项。