基于群偏好与用户偏好协同演化的群推荐方法

群推荐系统已经成为社交网络平台的重要工具,为群体用户提供兼顾个性化和整体满意度的产品和服务.现有群推荐方法大多是对个性化推荐方法的集成和聚合,忽略了群体和用户的交互影响以及群偏好和成员偏好的动态变化,从而无法保障群推荐系统的效果.为此,本文提出一种基于群偏好和用户偏好协同演化的群推荐方法,能够建模群体和用户的动态交互.具体而言,本文将用户偏好建模成其历史偏好和群影响的加权聚合结果,将群偏好建模成群历史偏好和新加入成员偏好的加权聚合结果,最终预测群体可能消费的产品列表和成员可能加入的群体列表.实验结果表明,本文所提模型在群体消费行为和用户加群行为的预测表现都优于基准算法,并兼具很好的鲁棒性.     

时间反演联合接收端人工噪声的安全传输方案

针对时间反演(time reversal, TR)技术无法较好地解决聚焦区内非法用户窃听的问题,提出了一种TR技术联合接收端人工噪声的物理层安全传输方案。首先,利用时间反演技术的空时聚焦性提高合法用户接收端的信噪比(signal to noise ratio, SNR)。其次,通过在接收端加入人工噪声来干扰非法用户对合法用户保密信息的窃听,以聚焦区内外系统安全性能为基础,推导出保密信干噪比(signal to interference plus noise ratio, SINR)、可达保密速率和误码率(bit error rate, BER)的解析表达式。最后,通过仿真分析证明了所提方案能提高系统的SINR和可达保密速率,同时还能降低合法用户的BER,使系统拥有更好的安全性能。     

Exploring Survey‐Based Inflation Forecasts

This paper first shows that survey‐based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in US quarterly inflation out‐of‐sample prediction and that the term structure of survey‐based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes some empirical explanations for the forecasting success of survey‐based inflation expectations. We show that SBE pool a large amount of heterogeneous information on inflation expectations and react more flexibly and accurately to macro conditions both contemporaneously and dynamically. We illustrate the flexibility of SBE forecasts in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hybrid Forecasting with Estimated Temporally Aggregated Linear Processes

We introduce a new strategy for the prediction of linear temporal aggregates; we call it ‘hybrid’ and study its performance using asymptotic theory. This scheme consists of carrying out model parameter estimation with data sampled at the highest available frequency and the subsequent prediction with data and models aggregated according to the forecasting horizon of interest. We develop explicit expressions that approximately quantify the mean square forecasting errors associated with the different prediction schemes and that take into account the estimation error component. These approximate estimates indicate that the hybrid forecasting scheme tends to outperform the so‐called ‘all‐aggregated’ approach and, in some instances, the ‘all‐disaggregated’ strategy that is known to be optimal when model selection and estimation errors are neglected. Unlike other related approximate formulas existing in the literature, those proposed in this paper are totally explicit and require neither assumptions on the second‐order stationarity of the sample nor Monte Carlo simulations for their evaluation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Temporal and spatial distribution of tropospheric CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> over China based on satellite observations

Mid-troposphere CO₂ data retrieved by the AIRS (atmospheric infrared sounder) were validated with five ground-based stations and aircraft measurements in the Northern Hemisphere. AIRS CO₂ products show good agreement with ground and aircraft observations. The data had a monthly average accuracy better than 3 ppmv. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of mid-troposphere CO₂ from January 2003 to December 2008 was analyzed based on this satellite product. The average concentration of atmospheric CO₂ was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The yearly average results show a gradual increase from 2003 to 2008. In China, the annual growth rate was about 2 ppmv/a, similar to the United States, Europe, Australia and India, but was slightly lower than Canada and Russia. Mid-troposphere CO₂ concentrations were higher over northern China than over southern areas, due to differences in natural conditions and industrial layout. There were four centers of high CO₂ concentration between 35° and 45°N over China, with low concentrations over Yunnan Province. There was a significant seasonal CO₂ variation with peak concentration in spring and the lowest concentration in autumn.     

植物种群分布格局的动态变化规律

本文从植物种群个体分布格局在时空系列上动态变化规律的研究,探讨植物种群结构的演变特点。种群分布格局与种群数量动态密切相关,种群数量的消长造成了种群分布格局类型(typc),格局规模(scale)、格局强度(intensity)、格局纹理(grain)的相应变化。在时间,空间梯度系列上,随着环境旱化程度的加强。旱中、中旱生类型的种群或消失,或种群分布格局的规模逐浙缩小,格局强度加强,格局纹理变粗;早生类型的种群分布格局观模则有扩大的趋势,格局强度减弱,格局纹理变细,可见,环境因子的改变,特别是水分状况的改变,是种群分布格局变化的主要影响因素。     

时态信息与时态信息管理研究

时态信息和时态信息管理是数据库技术和信息管理技术的一种新的研究领域,对于信息的时态要求是信息应用需求多元化的必然.本文概括了时态信息管理中的经典模型,研究了时态信息管理的常用软件,并对其相关的时态支持进行了分析归纳.     

基于XYZPADL 的Web 服务体系结构形式描述

在对时序逻辑语言XYZ/E进行扩展的基础上,对服务、合成服务、面向服务的体系结构以及系统的活性、正确性以及安全性等核心概念进行了形式定义,并对整个Web服务体系结构进行了形式化的描述与实现过程的分解与逐步求精,指出了在该体系结构框架下,系统的活性、正确性以及安全性存在的与服务求精过程中所具有的语义的可组合特性,这一组合特性在服务的状态转换变迁模型下得到了证明,从而为服务的合成与重用机制提供了形式化的理论指导.     

基于时域滤波的点目标检测算法

当红外预警系统对低空飞行的运动目标进行检测时,由于云杂波的存在,系统的检测性能会受到严重影响。分析了云层背景下目标和云层在探测器上的时间响应特性,建立了四种类型的像素点时域模型。并以这四种时域模型为基础,提出了云层背景下点目标的时域检测算法。理论分析和实验结果表明,新算法能有效检测出各种云层背景下的点目标。     

Cir X-1的时变性质

利用RXTE在不同时期的观测数据，分析了Cir X-1功率密度谱和交叉谱。功率密度谱表明，如果Cir X-1是Z源，那么所采用的数据将处于Z源的不同态，即垂直水平分支态、水平分支态、正常分支态和耀斑分态。各个态上的交叉谱显示，随着吸积率的变化，Cir X-1的交叉谱由硬向软转化，这和Cir X-1在一个完整Z形状上的时变性质一致。