基于GM（1，1）模型的某高校招生人数预测

分析了近年来我国高校招生人数的变化趋势，并利用GM（1，1）模型对某高校2008年的招生人数进行了预测．从而为高校招生人数决策提供了依据。     

具有强迫项的一阶中立型非线性微分方程的振动性

中立型微分方程广泛应用在细胞中酶反应动力学、遗传问题、控制工程等领域,本文讨论具有强迫项的一阶中立型非线性微分方程的振动性:[x(t)-P(t)x(t-て)]' m∑i=1Q(t)fi(x(t-σi))=e(t).推广了无强迫项的中立型微分方程的情形,获得了方程振动的充分性判定准则,为中立型泛函微分方程的振动性研究提供了一个新的理论判据.     

Forecast accuracy after pretesting with an application to the stock market

In econometrics, as a rule, the same data set is used to select the model and, conditional on the selected model, to forecast. However, one typically reports the properties of the (conditional) forecast, ignoring the fact that its properties are affected by the model selection (pretesting). This is wrong, and in this paper we show that the error can be substantial. We obtain explicit expressions for this error. To illustrate the theory we consider a regression approach to stock market forecasting, and show that the standard predictions ignoring pretesting are much less robust than naive econometrics might suggest. We also propose a forecast procedure based on the ‘neutral Laplace estimator’, which leads to an improvement over standard model selection procedures. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近代学人对新词语输入的反应

新词语大量输入,是近代中国面对的一种文化态势,中国学人对此持抵制和迎受的两极态度。而汲纳外来词以丰富本民族语汇,与强势的西方话语系统实现良性互动,是汉字文化的健康走向。     

短正合列的弱可裂

把短正合列的可裂推广到短正合列的弱可裂，并对弱可裂进行了等价刻画，最后还运用左弱可列证明了平坦模的一个充要条件。     

凸六边形的相对长边与相对短边

就Doliwaka和Lassak提出的凸n－边形的相对边问题，讨论n＝6的情形，将凸六边形嵌入到平等四边形内（边可重叠），利用对应边的边长比的关系可证任意凸六边形均有相对长边，有平行对边的凸六边形必有相对短边。     

A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Dynamic Forecasting System with Applications in Production Logistics

Production logistics involve the co-ordination of ac tivities such as production and materials control (PMC), inventory management, p roduct life cycle management, etc. Those activities demand for an accurate forec asting model. However, the conventional methods of making sell and buy decision based on human forecast or conventional moving average and exponential smoothing methods is no longer be sufficient to meet the future need. Furthermore, the un derlying statistics of the market information change ...     

适用于一般提法的埃尔米特插值多项式的差商构造公式

利用差商的非构造性定义建立了适用于一般提法的埃尔米特(Henmite)插值多项式的差商构造公式,并给出了插值余项估计。     

幻象·幻想·诗意言说——海子抒情短诗解读

海子及其诗歌是中国当代诗歌史上特殊的文化存在。本文尝试着从存在的表象/幻象、丰盈的想象/幻想、诗意言说方式、神性体验和神性光辉四个方面对海子的抒情短诗进行解读,并探讨和说明海子及其诗歌在诗学理念和美学实践上与梵高、海德格尔、荷尔德林等人的精神渊源关系。有所发明的是把海子诗歌的幻象体系与海德格尔的天地人神四重世界整体相联系,以及在分析归纳后提出了海子诗歌独特的“诗意言说方式”。