鸭绿江流域中国境内松江鲈的分布

国家二级保护动物松江鲈在我国的大部分原栖息地已经绝迹,但在辽宁省丹东地区鸭绿江流域仍有一定数量的种群存在。结合全球定位系统（GPS)及野外实地调查,对该地区不同时段松江鲈的分布进行了研究,得到了松江鲈在不同时段的分布范围。从7月至9月,松江鲈的分布仅限于淡水区域。在10月中、下旬松江鲈的分布地扩大到江口区域。在11月下旬松江鲈仅分布于江口区域和沿海区域。这一结果为该物种的进一步研究和保护提供了科学基础。     

铜和绿豆期货价格与现货价格协整关系的实证

期货价格与现货价格的关系历来是经济界关注的焦点,有无协整关系是对经济现象中的对变量进行正确分析和预测的关键。笔者对协整进行了推导和说明,并对重庆铜的期货价格与现货价格之间及郑州绿豆期货价格与现货价格之间协整关系进行了实证分析,得知这两种商品的期价与现价之间存在协整关系,分别写出他们各自的误差校正模型ＥＣＭ,并就ＥＣＭ给出了分析和预测的方法,论文还对铜绿豆协整检验结果进行了比较,探讨了中国期货市场、     

Seasonal variation of the temperature profile and its characteristics within urban roughness sublayer

By using conventional micro-meteorological observation data of Beijing Yuetan Park Tower (180 m), the temperature profile of urban boundary layer (UBL), its characteristics and seasonal variation are analyzed. The main results are as follows: (1) In winter, the interdiurnal surface air temperature varia- tion at the surface is not synchronized with that of the upper levels, other than in summer and other seasons, which illuminates the impacts of Beijing’s geographical location, sky view factor and stably st...     

Seasonal prediction of European cereal prices: good forecasts using bad models?

Because of their natural adherence to the climate and pronounced seasonal cycles, prices of field crops constitute an interesting field for exploring seasonal time series models. We consider quarterly prices of two major cereals: barley and wheat. Using traditional in‐sample fit and moving‐window techniques, we investigate whether seasonality is deterministic or unit‐root stochastic and whether seasonal cycles have converged over time. We find that seasonal cycles in the data are mainly deterministic and that evidence on common cycles across countries differs for the two commodities. Out‐of‐sample prediction experiments, however, yield a ranking with respect to accuracy that does not match the statistical in‐sample evidence. Parametric bootstrap experiments establish that the observed mismatch is indeed an inherent and systematic feature. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用于层圈相互作用的冰冻圈参数化模型

给出了一个用于研究各层圈相互作用简化的冰冻圈模型.对其中两个重要分量:季节性雪盖和冻土内部复杂而相互作用的水、热传输和相变物理过程作出简化及改进,发展了相应定量描述的参数化方案;最后利用国内外多个观测站长年的观测数据,对所发展模型作了验证,发现模拟结果与实测数据吻合得很好,表明所发展雪盖和冻土参数化方案能适用于层圈相互作用研究的需要.     

Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts

By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As one major contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series as well as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.     

A nonparametric method for asymmetrically extending signal extraction filters

Two important problems in the X‐11 seasonal adjustment methodology are the construction of standard errors and the handling of the boundaries. We adapt the ‘implied model approach’ of Kaiser and Maravall to achieve both objectives in a nonparametric fashion. The frequency response function of an X‐11 linear filter is used, together with the periodogram of the differenced data, to define spectral density estimates for signal and noise. These spectra are then used to define a matrix smoother, which in turn generates an estimate of the signal that is linear in the data. Estimates of the signal are provided at all time points in the sample, and the associated time‐varying signal extraction mean squared errors are a by‐product of the matrix smoother theory. After explaining our method, it is applied to popular nonparametric filters such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP), the Henderson trend, and ideal low‐pass and band‐pass filters, as well as X‐11 seasonal adjustment, trend, and irregular filters. Finally, we illustrate the method on several time series and provide comparisons with X‐12‐ARIMA seasonal adjustments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

洪泽湖地区杨树人工林碳水通量昼夜和季节变化特征

【目的】通过对洪泽湖地区杨树人工林生态系统碳水通量的昼夜变化和季节变化特征进行分析,为评估该杨树人工林生态系统的固碳能力提供必要的基础数据,揭示杨树人工林生态系统碳循环及对外部气象环境因子的响应,同时为增强森林生态系统固碳能力提供依据。【方法】以洪泽湖地区杨树人工林生态系统为研究对象,利用涡度相关技术和微气象观测系统进行长期且连续的通量以及气象环境观测。选取2017年5月至2018年4月期间的原始观测数据,对异常数据进行剔除和插补处理,同时,利用EddyPro软件中的Express Mode模块对通量数据进行二次坐标旋转、频率损失订正以及WPL密度效应修正,最终转化为30 min数据。分析杨树人工林生态系统与大气间的二氧化碳(CO₂)、甲烷(CH₄)和潜热(latent heat, LE)通量的季节动态变化和昼夜变化特征及其与外部气象环境因子的相互关系。【结果】洪泽湖地区杨树人工林生态系统碳通量均有显著的昼夜和季节变化,净生态系统碳交换(net ecosystem exchange, NEE)白天为较强的碳汇,夜晚为较弱的碳源,整年表现为固碳作用,年通量为-506.9 g/(m²·a)。其日变化在生长季和非生长季均呈“U”形曲线,生长季的碳吸收明显大于非生长季;在生长季白天,NEE与光合有效辐射(photosynthetically active radiation, PAR)呈显著的对数关系;而在非生长季,NEE与夜间土壤温度(soil temperature,T_s)呈显著的指数关系。洪泽湖地区杨树人工林生态系统LE的昼夜和季节变化显著,在生长季和非生长季均呈“单峰型”曲线,且在生长季大于非生长季,LE与饱和水汽压差(vapor pressure deficit, VPD)在生长季和非生长季均呈显著的线性正相关关系。洪泽湖地区杨树人工林生态系统CH₄通量在生长季和非生长季均无显著的昼夜变化,在生长季为较弱的CH₄吸收,非生长季为中性至微弱的CH₄排放,全年可能表现为较微弱的CH₄汇。【结论】洪泽湖地区杨树人工林生态系统整体具有较高的固碳能力,CO₂和LE通量具有显著的昼夜变化和季节变化规律,而CH₄通量季节和昼夜变化并不显著,生态系统碳水通量受环境因子的影响较显著,可以为今后提升杨树人工林的固碳能力提供参考。因此,营造杨树人工林将是短期内吸收大气中的CO₂和CH₄并缓解气候变化的有效途径。     

太阳高年期间海南电离层扩展F出现的起始时间研究

电离层扩展F与电离层闪烁现象密切相关,它们出现的起始时间存在着很大程度上的一致性,因此研究电离层扩展F出现的起始时间将对闪烁预报模型的建立具有重要的应用价值.将太阳高年（2002年3月-2003年2月）期间海南地区DPS-4测高仪观测到的扩展F按照频率、区域、混合和强区域扩展等分为四种类型,对其出现的起始时间进行了分析研究.结果表明：频率扩展和混合扩展的起始时间分别集中在0200LT-0800LT和0000LT-0600LT;而区域扩展和强区域扩展出现的起始时间分别集中在2000LT-0200LT和2000LT-2200LT.     

北京大气中痕量烷烃的浓度分析与研究

采用二步深冷浓缩与气相色谱质谱联用（ACIS-GC／MS）对北京大气中痕量烷烃进行长期连续观测,观测数据表明：日变化有双峰和三峰变化,冬、春呈现与交通高峰吻合的双峰变化,即：上午08：00点至10：00和下午17：00前后各出现一个高值;四季日变化中夜间22：00出现第三峰值;夏季变化呈三峰型,最大值在正午前后．季变化峰值出现在夏季,低值出现在冬季．