钢铁企业电力负荷预测建模研究

针对钢铁企业负荷波动特点,用分解及分类建模的思想,构造负荷预测模型。综合考虑各用电环节的用电特点、工况和工艺信息,分类建立模型,通过各用电环节预测结果叠加获取总负荷预测值。该模型运用静态预测和动态预测相结合的方法,在动态预测过程中充分考虑到实时工艺节奏和动态工况信息,使模型具有更好的适应性。实例表明,该预测模型能获得良好的预测效果。     

南阳粮食总产量的灰色预测研究

通过南阳市粮食总产量摆动序列的综合信息,应用灰色理论建立了粮食生产的DGM(2,1)参数优化数学模型,经比较,预测模型结果明显优于常规的DGM(2,1)模型,进一步提高了该模型的预测精度和适用性.应用模型对南阳未来几年的粮食总产量作出预测,为有关部门制定合理的经济政策提供理论依据.     

笕桥机场12.6冬季雷雨的分析

雷雨对飞行安全影响很大，一直为航空气象预报所重视．但冬季雷雨极为少见，事先特征也不明显，很容易漏报，给飞行安全带来很大的影响．1997年12月6日，笕桥机场发生了一次漏报的冬季雷雨，这是一个十分难得的个案材料．本文利用天气系统、探空资料、物理量、数值预报产品，对本次过程进行探讨，归纳总结其发生发展的特征，重点说明数值预报产品对预报系统性强对流天气的强度和落区有很好的参考启迪作用.     

Predicting the signs of forecast errors

The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

梅州市一次秋雨空报过程的分析

利用Micaps常规资料围绕环流形势,对梅州市2010年深秋时节的一次秋雨空报过程进行分析.结果表明:由于南岭的屏障作用,没有补充的西路弱冷空气很难影响到梅州市.在冬季风开始盛行的深秋季节,中低层的浅薄系统不容易激发出降水.强度较弱且移速又快的850 hPa切变线,其即使南压带来降水的可能性也不大,或是500 hPa的西风短波槽脊同样构不成大的影响.要带来降水,单一影响系统必须足够强大比如强冷空气、深厚的南支系统等,或者有一定强度多个系统相互遭遇.比如一定强度的冷空气遭遇到相对较深的南支槽等.通过对比初秋的一次全市性小雨天气过程,发现初秋夏季风还没退尽的气候背景使得冷空气更容易激发出降水,因此深秋的降水预报一定要把气候基础纳入考虑范围.     

Break Detectability and Mean Square Forecast Error Ratios for Selecting Estimation Windows

It has been suggested that a major problem for window selection when we estimate models for forecasting is to empirically determine the timing of the break. However, if the window choice between post‐break or full sample is based on mean square forecast error ratios, it is difficult to understand why such a problem arises since break detectability and these ratios seem to have the same determinants. This paper analyses this issue first for the expected values in conditional models and then by Monte Carlo simulations for more general cases. Results show similar behaviour between rejection frequencies and the ratios but only for break tests that do not take into account forecasting error covariances, as is the case with mean square forecast error measures. Moreover, the asymmetric shape of the frequency distribution of the ratios could help us to better grasp empirical problems. An illustration using actual data is given. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

天津蓟县城镇化的驱动机制与城镇化水平预测

首先介绍了天津市蓟县的概况,随后从区域内部环境和外部环境两个方面分析了蓟县城镇化的驱动机制,揭示了蓟县城镇化发展的原因.定性分析之后,文中运用人口比重指标法对蓟县的城镇化水平进行了测算,得出了定量的结果,并进行了结果的分析以及预测.最后根据定性和定量的分析,对蓟县城镇化中的问题利未来的发展方向进行了探讨.     

基坑降水对周围环境影响的研究

基坑降水分为维护结构插入不透水层的降基坑内水、插入不透水层的降坑内承压水和坑外降水3种情况.现有的基坑降水对周围环境影响预测方法可分为解析法、随机统计模型、人工智能模型和数值计算法及其他方法.基坑降水的数值模拟分析中多使用基于各种简化和假设的准三维模型,无法反映工程实际中地下水运动和土体变形的三维耦合关系;考虑三维水土耦合作用的真三维完全耦合数值模拟方法预测基坑降水对周边环境的影响将是未来发展的方向.     

How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies

This paper assesses the international efficiency of the European football betting market by examining the forecastability of match outcomes on the basis of the information contained in different sets of online and fixed odds quoted by six major bookmakers. The paper also investigates the profitability of strategies based on: combined betting, simple heuristic rules, regression models and prediction encompassing. The empirical results show that combined betting across different bookmakers can lead to limited but highly profitable arbitrage opportunities. Simple trading rules and betting strategies based on forecast encompassing are found capable of also producing significant positive returns. Despite the deregulation, globalization and increased competition in the betting industry over recent years, the predictabilities and profits reported in this paper are not fully consistent with weak-form market efficiency. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

市场信息分析与预测

加强市场信息分析与预测，对了解市场供需变化，调节市场供需矛盾，为企业决策提供了依据，市场信息分析与预测有顾客需求直接调查法、经理人员评判预测法、销售人员意见综合法、市场因子推演法和季节变化分析法等多种方法。