温度场及非均布移动荷载作用下

为研究路面结构实际温度场对沥青路面结构动力响应的影响,基于路面结构温度场现场实测数据及室内实际路面材料动态模量试验结果,建立温度场分析和非均布移动荷载作用下沥青路面瞬态动力分析三维有限元模型,分析路面结构在实际温度荷载作用下的动力响应规律,并与传统的等温结构模型动力响应结果进行对比分析.结果表明,层底控温方法模拟出的温度场可用于分析夏季高温时段和低温时段沥青路面的实际动力响应;夏季一天中高温时段,等温模型高估了竖向应变及上、下面层的剪应变,低估了中面层的剪应变;夏季一天中低温时段,沥青路面的实际动力响应大于等温模型的计算值,等温模型低估了温度分布对沥青路面车辙和开裂的影响.     

Forecasting using high‐frequency data: a comparison of asymmetric financial duration models

The first purpose of this paper is to assess the short‐run forecasting capabilities of two competing financial duration models. The forecast performance of the Autoregressive Conditional Multinomial–Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACM‐ACD) model is better than the Asymmetric Autoregressive Conditional Duration (AACD) model. However, the ACM‐ACD model is more complex in terms of the computational setting and is more sensitive to starting values. The second purpose is to examine the effects of market microstructure on the forecasting performance of the two models. The results indicate that the forecast performance of the models generally decreases as the liquidity of the stock increases, with the exception of the most liquid stocks. Furthermore, a simple filter of the raw data improves the performance of both models. Finally, the results suggest that both models capture the characteristics of the micro data very well with a minimum sample length of 20 days. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

随机控制理论的现状和展望

介绍了随机控制理论的两种受控状态，即脉冲型随机控制和奇异型随机控制的发展现状和特点，并对随机控制理论的未来作了评述和展望。     

略论人际关系中的道德调节

影响人际关系的因素复杂多样，概而言之，可分为两个方面：一是客观因素，一是主要因素，它们相互作用，共同推动人际关系的变化发展，然而，对人际关系起决定影响作用的乃是人的主观因素，即人的心理和道德特别是行为主体（交往双方）的道德认知、道德情感、道德行为状况。揭示和运用道德在人际关系中的调节作用，对于开展健康的交往活动，形成和谐的际关系，具有重要的现实意义。     

Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data

The qualitative responses that firms give to business survey questions regarding changes in their own output provide a real‐time signal of official output changes. The most commonly used method to produce an aggregate quantitative indicator from business survey responses—the net balance or diffusion index—has changed little in 40 years. This paper investigates whether an improved real‐time signal of official output data changes can be derived from a recently advanced method on the aggregation of survey data from panel responses. We find, in a New Zealand application, that exploiting the panel dimension to qualitative survey data gives a better in‐sample signal about official data than traditional methods. Out‐of‐sample, it is less clear that it matters how survey data are quantified, with simpler and more parsimonious methods hard to improve. It is clear, nevertheless, that survey data, exploited in some form, help to explain revisions to official data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

构建以G(nλ1/xλ2)(λ1λ2>0)为核的半离散Hilbert型不等式的充要条件及应用#br#

利用权函数方法,证明具有非齐次核的半离散Hilbert型不等式:■成立的充分必要条件是■,并研究该不等式的最佳常数因子问题,给出其在算子理论中的应用.     

Oil financialization and volatility forecast: Evidence from multidimensional predictors

Using the generalized dynamic factor model, this study constructs three predictors of crude oil price volatility: a fundamental (physical) predictor, a financial predictor, and a macroeconomic uncertainty predictor. Moreover, an event‐triggered predictor is constructed using data extracted from Google Trends. We construct GARCH‐MIDAS (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed‐data sampling) models combining realized volatility with the predictors to predict oil price volatility at different forecasting horizons. We then identify the predictive power of the realized volatility and the predictors by the model confidence set (MCS) test. The findings show that, among the four indexes, the financial predictor has the most predictive power for crude oil volatility, which provides strong evidence that financialization has been the key determinant of crude oil price behavior since the 2008 global financial crisis. In addition, the fundamental predictor, followed by the financial predictor, effectively forecasts crude oil price volatility in the long‐run forecasting horizons. Our findings indicate that the different predictors can provide distinct predictive information at the different horizons given the specific market situation. These findings have useful implications for market traders in terms of managing crude oil price risk.     

Cienfuegia gen. nov. (Xyalidae) and Pseudoterschellingia gen. nov. (Linhomoeidae), two new genera of free‐living marine nematodes from the Caribbean Sea

Two new genera of nematodes are described from the Caribbean Sea. Cienfuegia gen. nov. belongs to the Xyalidae based on the position of the anterior gonad constantly left of the intestine, cuticle clearly striated, second and third circle of anterior sensilla inserted at the same level and buccal cavity surrounded by pharynx. The new genus is differentiated from other genera by the buccal cavity divided in two chambers and by the four cephalic setae being longer than the six outer labial setae. Within the Xyalidae, Cienfuegia shows most affinities with the genera Daptonema and Theristus. Pseudoterschellingia gen. nov. is placed within the Linhomoeidae on the basis of the presence of anterior rounded amphidial fovea, unarmed narrow buccal cavity, distinctive cardia and presence of apophysis of gubernaculum. Pseudoterschellingia is closely related to the genera Terschellingia and Terschellingioides, but is differentiated by the crypto‐spiral amphidial fovea, and conical buccal cavity surrounded by pharyngeal tissue.     

具有 1／4 对称度量联络的半 Rie mann 流形非退化超曲面

借助Levi Civita联络的Gauss方程与Weingarten方程给出具有1/4对称度量联络的半Riemann流形非退化超曲面上的Gauss方程与Weingarten方程, 得到了这类曲面上的Gauss曲率方程和Codazzi Mainardi方程, 利用该结果可进一步研究更一般联络的性质.     

感知学习风格及对大学英语分级教学的启示

通过对113名非英语专业学生的调查表明，大学英语分级教学后同一层次的学生，因性别、专业不同仍然存在感知学习风格的差异，而学习者的感知学习风格在一定程度上影响着学习效果。结合分级教学的理论原则，就如何把感知学习风格和提高分级教学效果结合起来提出了建议和设想。