Forecasting with missing data: application to coastal wave heights

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed models for short‐term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay. The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes the forecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and the mixed models have a linear component and a non‐linear seasonal component. The non‐linear component is estimated by a non‐parametric regression of data versus time. Short‐term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interest because they can be used by the port authorities to notify the fleet. Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behaviour. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning

In this paper an intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning is presented. The forecaster is basically a multi‐layered fuzzy rule‐based neural network which integrates the basic elements and functions of a traditional fuzzy logic inference into a neural network structure. It has also been shown to be superior to two commercially available business forecasters in terms of learning speed and forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the architectural design of the intelligent business forecaster and the results of a study that has been carried out to compare its performance with that of the others. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

杜甫对乱世亲人的关爱与牵挂

杜甫富有儒家传统的人文关怀精神,这不仅集中表现在他的忠君恋阙、仁民爱物思想中,也鲜明地反映在他对乱世亲人的关爱与牵挂上。纵观杜甫创作的一千四百余首诗歌,诗人想望家乡、牵挂弟妹、照顾妻子、抚育子女,可谓是万虑丛集,操碎柔肠。解读杜甫诗歌,诗人堪称怀乡恋土的赤子、棠棣相依的贤兄、百结柔肠的良夫、舐犊情深的慈父。杜甫描述人伦亲情的诗歌,十分真切地反映了诗人的儒家仁爱情怀和宗亲观念。     

试论灾难性事件新闻报道的人文关怀

有关各种灾难性事件的新闻报道在近些年成为各种媒体报道的重要内容。出于社会责任感的考虑,新闻工作者在灾难新闻报道中应该注入人文关怀的因素。本文采用理论研究和实例分析相结合的方法,解读灾难报道与人文关怀的基本涵义,阐明两者之间的辩证关系,指出当代媒体在灾难新闻报道中人文关怀缺失的表现,分析其深层原因,并进一步提出改进灾难新闻报道过程中人文关怀缺失的策略。     

人本主义心理学思想与高校图书馆的人文关怀建设

在分析图书馆人文关怀中的缺失和简要介绍人本主义心理学思想基础上,着重分析了人本主义心理学思想对高校图书馆人文关怀建设的指导意义,从图书馆对读者的人文关怀和对馆员的人文关怀两个方面提出具体的意见和措施。     

理论的使命首先就是超越实际

以为越推崇感性就越是唯物主义的,这是一个莫大的误解。人类是因为思想和理论而成为人类的,是因为理论和思想而把自己从动物界解放成人类的,因此,理论具有超越实际、穿透实际、引导实际、反驳实际的能力,理论让我们免受实际欺骗,理论让人成为人。     

Creating high‐frequency national accounts with state‐space modelling: a Monte Carlo experiment

This paper assesses a new technique for producing high‐frequency data from lower frequency measurements subject to the full set of identities within the data all holding. The technique is assessed through a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The example used here is gross domestic product (GDP) which is observed at quarterly intervals in the United States and it is a flow economic variable rather than a stock. The problem of constructing an unobserved monthly GDP variable can be handled using state space modelling. The solution of the problem lies in finding a suitable state space representation. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to illustrate this concept and to identify which variant of the model gives the best monthly estimates. The results demonstrate that the more simple models do almost as well as more complex ones and hence there may be little gain in return for the extra work of using a complex model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

走进历史田野:历史人类学散论

对中国历史文献进行人类学解读和分析正是历史人类学所要求的。历史学与人类学之所以相汇 ,一是人类学家对历史的关怀 ,二是历史学家对人类学的兴趣。历史人类学作为一门交叉学科的产生和发展 ,既有人类学家的努力 ,又有历史学家的贡献     

基于网络的出国人员信息管理系统开发

开发了一种基于网络的出国人员信息管理系统。该系统利用关系型数据库存储、管理资料,通过www的客户机/服务器体系实现资料传送。该系统自成体系,实现了网上申请、网络管理、网上消息发布以及后台管理等多项功能,实现了各类出国人员管理的信息数字化,便利了出国人员的信息管理,提高了工作效率,降低了管理难度,具有广阔的应用前景。     

Prediction in the two‐way random‐effect model with heteroskedasticity

In this paper we extend Taub (1979) approach for prediction in the context of the variance components model. The extension obtained is based on the two‐way random‐effect model with heteroskedasticity. Prediction functions are then obtained in three heteroskedasticity cases (heteroskedasticity on the individual term , heteroskedasticity on the composite term ?_it, and heteroskedasticity on the temporal term ). Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.