The accuracy of individual and group forecasts from business outlook surveys

This paper reports on the accuracy of quarterly multiperiod predictions of inflation, real growth, unemployment and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile components. The survey data are highly differentiated; they cover 79 professional forecasters (mostly economists, analysts and corporate executives). Combining corresponding predictions from different sources can result in significant gains; thus the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative performance of a sufficient number of the survey members, as evidenced in positive rank correlations among ratios of the individual to group root mean square errors.     

旅游需求预测方法的比较分析

需求预测是旅游计划管理的一项重要工作。旅游需求预测对于旅游地规划和建设旅游基础设施,组织产品和提供旅游者服务是一个基础性的前期工作。然而,旅游产品的易逝性和不可贮存之特征,对旅游需求预测提出了更高的要求。本文试图通过总结和评价自20世纪中期以来旅游需求预测的方法,确立一个适合于中国旅游发展的新思路。     

试论经贸英语翻译的标准

经贸英语是人们从事国际经济贸易活动所使用的英语,“准确、地道”应是其翻译标准。翻译工作者除了须精通两种语言和背景文化以及翻译技巧,还应熟悉经贸知识及有关法律法规。     

智能控制理论在电力电子学中的应用

针对电力电子学强非线性、多变量、极短的瞬态过程等特点,概述了几种智能控制在电力电子学中的应用,并对其今后的发展前景进行了展望。     

AR模型应用于振动信号趋势预测的研究

振动信号的趋势预测是设备状态监测与故障诊断中的一个重要内容.本文讲述了对随机信号进行建模的基本方法和模型定阶的准则,并且讨论了轴承振动信号最佳阶数选取的问题.利用现场实测数据进行验证,计算结果表明使用Burg算法的AR模型能够较好地拟合轴承振动信号时间序列,并具有一定的预测精度,可以达到预测要求.     

国内首次以噪声污染源为中心的城市环境噪声污染图的编制

本文针对常州城市环境噪声时空分布主要特征,结合对网格法环境噪声测量、评价与制图方法的剖析,阐述在国内新近创建的以噪声污染源为中心的城市环境噪声测量、评价与制图方法的特点,以及我国首次以噪声污染源为中心的城市环境噪声污染图的编制实践.     

南桐煤矿5~#煤层突出点地质特征及预测指标的确定

本文在阐述了南桐煤矿5~#煤层煤与瓦斯突出点地质特征的基础上,以煤与瓦斯突出理论为依据,用瓦斯地质观点提出了5~#煤层突出点预测预报的临界指标,经实践检验收到了良好效果。     

管道进口段问题研究的现状与展望

对管道进口段问题研究的历史和现状进行了分析和回顾，并对今后的发展方向进行了预测，     

Awareness and use of forecasting techniques in british industry

The paper summarizes results of a mail survey of the use of formal forecasting techniques in British manufacturing companies. It appraises the state of awareness of particular techniques and the extent to which they are used in various functional applications. The extent to which the forecasts generated by the techniques influence company action is assessed; and the reasons for the non-use of particular techniques examined. The paper concludes that although an increasing number of companies appreciate the importance of forecasting, the methods used are predominantly naïve and few companies are taking steps to improve the situation through using alternative techniques or through computerizing established techniques.     

Econometric Model in Qingchuan County

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