一种改进的相对轨道动力学模型

线性化的Clohessey-Whiltshire(C-W)方程描述相对运动虽然方便,但是精度不高,为了解决这一问题,提出了一种C-W方程的改进形式。首先基于C-W方程的推导,分析了在对中心引力取近似的过程中导致原方程不准确的数学原因和物理现象;然后通过对简化部分的数量级进行分析和比较,将原推导过程中忽略掉的部分重要内容重新予以考虑,并运用数学变换将新加入的内容合并转化,最终给出了一组非齐次线性常系数微分方程,在不增加计算复杂度的情况下提高了精度。仿真验证表明该方程在圆轨道下相对于C-W方程精度改善很多,小椭圆轨道下也消除了C-W方程的长期误差。     

应用确定性前沿模型测定我国生物科技企业技术效率

利用前沿模型和技术效率理论测定了我国生物科技企业的技术效率，结果表明，我国生物科技企业资本投入对产出的贡献率远大于劳动力投入，生物科技企业的技术效率普遍较低且企业间差异极大，我国东、中、西部生物科技企业平均技术效率无显著差异．     

普通高校体育教育专业田径专修跨栏教学素质教育模式的再探

对体育教育专业如何与“素质教育”良性接轨进行了探索与研究,旨在能够为全面推进体育教育专业素质教育改革起到抛砖引玉的作用.研究结果表明：设计的教学模式有助于实现从应试教育向素质教育的良性转化;还有助于在普通高校体育教育专业田径专修跨栏教学中增强学生的自信心,提高教与学的效率.     

Philosophy of chemistry and the image of science

The philosophical analysis of chemistry has advanced at such a pace during the last dozen years that the existence of philosophy of chemistry as an autonomous discipline cannot be doubted any more. The present paper will attempt to analyse the experience of philosophy of chemistry at the, so to say, meta-level. Philosophers of chemistry have especially stressed that all sciences need not be similar to physics. They have tried to argue for chemistry as its own type of science and for a pluralistic understanding of science in general. However, when stressing the specific character of chemistry, philosophers do not always analyse the question ‘What is science?’ theoretically. It is obvious that a ‘monistic’ understanding of science should not be based simply on physics as the epitome of science, regarding it as a historical accident that physics has obtained this status. The author’s point is that the philosophical and methodological image of science should not be chosen arbitrarily; instead, it should be theoretically elaborated as an idealization (theoretical model) substantiated on the historical practice of science. It is argued that although physics has, in a sense, justifiably obtained the status of a paradigm of science, chemistry, which is not simply a physical science, but a discipline with a dual character, is also relevant for elaborating a theoretical model of science. The theoretical model of science is a good tool for examining various issues in philosophy of chemistry as well as in philosophy of science or science studies generally.     

Time‐simultaneous prediction band for a time series

I propose principles and methods for the construction of a time‐simultaneous prediction band for a univariate time series. The methods are entirely based on a learning sample of time trajectories, and make no parametric assumption about its distribution. Hence, the methods are general and widely applicable. The expected coverage probability of a band can be estimated by a bootstrap procedure. The estimate is likely to be less than the nominal level. Expected lack of coverage can be compensated for by increasing the coverage in the learning sample. Applications to simulated and empirical data illustrate the methods. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Preface

Different from traditional tax audit, supervision with self-audit is a combination of audit by the taxpayer himself and audit by the tax authority. This paper mainly studies a taxpayer’s optimal policy of tax evasion under supervision with self-audit and its related properties, in order to deduce some effective suggestions and theoretical bases to restrain tax evasion. Assuming that only a certain proportion of evaded tax can be discovered when the audit is executed, the authors first formulate a static model with self-audit. This model is divided into two stages. At the first stage, taxpayers declare their taxes, then the tax authority chooses audit objects, based on a known probability, and announces the result; if the taxpayer is chosen, he will enter the second stage, during which he has a chance to pay the evaded tax and the corresponding late fees and then is audited by the tax authority. The authors show the existence and uniqueness of the optimal amount of tax evasion at the first stage and the optimal proportion to self-expose at the second stage. The authors also discuss the related properties of the interior solution, and do elasticity analyses on some parameters. Besides, the authors extend the static model into the corresponding two-period model, and study the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the extended model. Finally, under the assumption that tax evasion can only be discovered with a certain probability when the audit is executed, the authors formulate another static model with self-audit and investigate its properties. This research is partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 60674082, 70221001, and 70731003.     

基于模糊数学的塑烧板除尘计算机控制系统

介绍了塑烧板除尘器的系统总体结构和工作原理,阐述了模糊控制模型的建立。     

营销支撑平台现状及其发展

分析了目前营销支撑平台的发展现状,针对存在问题和经营、管理、运行效率方面的要求,从闭环式方案定制系统、系统化支撑程序设计、优惠处理模型优化3个方面探讨了营销支撑平台的发展方向。     

基于时态关系模型的儿童保健系统的设计研究

根据当前时态数据模型的理论,为儿童保健管理信息系统建立了一个可行的时态关系模型,并对系统中的查询做了简单的描述,最后分析了这种建模方法的优缺点.