能源供求予测模型

本文论述了三种予测能源需求的方法,并对其作了评价;提出了一种能源供应予测模型;最后对我省能源、经济、予测研究提出了建议。     

带随机振幅的正弦波过程在Haar小波下的性质

研究了一类随机过程：x(t)=Ucosλt Vsinλt，在Haar小波下的性质，得到平稳性、相关性和稠度．     

带电粒子作同频旋转振动的辐射

根据振动电偶极矩产生的辐射场的矢势,导出带电粒子作同频旋转振动的辐射,并讨论其辐射的特点.     

线性谐振子的计算机代数计算

采用计算机代数方法，通过Mathematica软件计算线性谐振子的波函数，几率密度和几率最大值的位置。计算方法简单、通用，易于推广。     

脂肪腈结构与凝聚型性能之间定量关系的研究

借助于分子拓扑学探讨了脂肪腈的凝聚型性能与分子结构之间的关系，提出一个结构基础明确的定量关系式．对乙腈到二十一烷腈的计算结果表明，沸点、密度和折光指数的计算值都很接近实验值．应用这一定量关系，不仅能够合理表征脂肪睛结构与凝聚型性能的关系，而且有助于揭示物质结构与性能关系之间的奥秘。     

A ground‐level ozone forecasting model for Santiago,Chile

A physically based model for ground‐level ozone forecasting is evaluated for Santiago, Chile. The model predicts the daily peak ozone concentration, with the daily rise of air temperature as input variable; weekends and rainy days appear as interventions. This model was used to analyse historical data, using the Linear Transfer Function/Finite Impulse Response (LTF/FIR) formalism; the Simultaneous Transfer Function (STF) method was used to analyse several monitoring stations together. Model evaluation showed a good forecasting performance across stations—for low and high ozone impacts—with power of detection (POD) values between 70 and 100%, Heidke's Skill Scores between 40% and 70% and low false alarm rates (FAR). The model consistently outperforms a pure persistence forecast. Model performance was not sensitive to different implementation options. The model performance degrades for two‐ and three‐days ahead forecast, but is still acceptable for the purpose of developing an environmental warning system at Santiago. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国居民消费水平的中长期预测

根据全国1992－1999年居民消费水平的统计数据，采用灰色系统理论的数据预测及缓冲算子公理，结合定性分析，建立了GM（1，1）模型，预测了我国2000－2005年居民消费水平的发展前景。     

Forecasting trend output in the Euro area

This paper is an applied study about forecasting trend output and the output gap in the Euro area. The need for trend output forecasts is justified by an analysis of the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank. Trend output serves as a direct inflation indicator and helps to determine the reference value for money. For both purposes, trend output has to be forecasted. A permanent–transitory decomposition based on cointegration restrictions gives an estimate of trend output in the Euro area. Ex‐ante point forecasts of trend output are computed and bootstrap simulation is employed to construct prediction intervals that take estimation uncertainty into consideration. The uncertainty of trend output and the output gap is quite large and raises questions about their usefulness as indicators for monetary policy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从意象与结构看中国古典诗歌的疏密

疏密是艺评论中一个重要概念，对疏密的理解虽各有不同，但大多是从内容及内容的连接两个角度出发，从意象和结构两个方面看中国古典诗歌的疏密，思路要清晰得多，意象疏密指诗歌构成材料的众寡和密实程度，结构的疏密是指诗思的疏密，它包括两个方面；诗歌材料间结合的疏松与细密，诗歌材料与主旨的呼应程度。     

密度演化方法在求解股市上扬天数中的应用

将股市上扬的天数转化为随机游程的长度，利用密度演化方法求得了股市上扬天数的分布以及均值和方差该文首次将密度演化方法用来研究股市的一般宏观规律，其结论可指导投资决策．